Weather
A two-stage midweek pattern brings light higher-elevation snow Tuesday in southwest Montana, followed by a broader Wednesday night to Thursday event that targets the Tetons and adjacent Montana ranges. Snow levels generally hover around 7,000 to 8,000 feet before trending a bit lower late, so accumulations favor mid and upper mountain terrain with fair-quality snow. Grand Targhee looks like the regional standout, while Big Sky sees a steady mix from two waves and Jackson picks up lighter amounts focused up high. Showers taper Friday with a quiet window into the weekend, then another cool and occasionally wet stretch looks probable next week.
Tuesday (10/14) brings a light, elevation-driven pulse centered on southwest Montana, with only spotty flakes early elsewhere. Weak bands lift north from Idaho overnight into Tuesday morning, putting a coating to a couple of inches on the upper mountain at Big Sky and a dusting to light accumulations at Bridger, while the Tetons largely wait until the next wave. Snow levels run high during this window, broadly 7,500 to 8,500 feet, so bases near 6,000 to 6,800 feet see a rain or mixed start with slushy snow at times. Ridge winds favor a south to southeast direction at 10 to 20 mph with occasional higher gusts, enough for minor drift formation on leeward aspects.
Wednesday night through Thursday (10/15–10/16) is the main event for the Tetons and southwest Montana. Moisture wraps in from the south, then pivots west and northwest, expanding snow coverage overnight Wednesday and continuing through Thursday. Snow levels settle toward roughly 7,000 to 7,500 feet with upper-elevation temperatures in the upper 20s to near 30°F, so accumulations favor mid and upper mountain, especially at Grand Targhee and the high terrain above Jackson. Snow-to-liquid ratios improve into the 9–11:1 bracket across much of the region, so snow quality trends from dense chalk toward moderate fluff. Winds tilt westerly and increase on exposed ridges with sustained 10 to 20 mph and gusts around 20 to 30 mph, which may stiffen windward slopes and pad in the lee.
Friday (10/17) brings a taper and only spotty leftovers, primarily in the Tetons. As the midweek system exits and flow turns more westerly, lingering snow showers fade through the day with little additional accumulation, matching the modest signals for the Tetons and a dry finish at most Montana areas. Temperatures remain cool with highs near seasonal norms, keeping any remaining upper-mountain snow in decent shape through the morning. By late day a brief lull sets up with calmer winds and breaks in the cloud deck, setting the stage for a quieter start to the weekend.
The medium-range outlook favors another active stretch after the lull. Over days 6–10, probabilities lean cooler than normal with above-normal precipitation favored across the Northern Rockies, supporting additional rounds of mountain snow when shortwaves roll through. During days 8–14, faster Pacific flow keeps periodic troughs in play, most active toward the northwest side of the region. Expect incremental base-building mainly above 7,000 to 8,000 feet under each passing wave, while lower elevations still need a colder push for consistent accumulations.
Resort Forecast Totals
- Grand Targhee – 7″–11″ Wed night (10/15) – Fri (10/17)
- Big Sky – 6″–9″ Tue (10/14) – Thu night (10/16)
- Jackson Hole – 3″–5″ Wed night (10/15) – Fri (10/17)
- Bridger Bowl – 3″–5″ total (2″–2″ Tue (10/14) – Wed (10/15) + 2″–2″ Wed night (10/15) – Thu night (10/16))
