Weather
This forecast is brought to you by Christy Sports.
A cold, windy storm cycle brings widespread Colorado powder from Wednesday night through early Saturday, with the San Juans leading the way. Snow levels stay well below every resort base during the active period, generally hovering between 0 and 5,000 feet, and snow-to-liquid ratios run mostly 15-20:1, so the snow will ski light and dry. By the time showers fade early Saturday, most mountains land in the 4″-13″ range, with Wolf Creek out front at 18″-25″. After that, the pattern turns quieter and much warmer, and the back half of next week carries another meaningful snow signal with lower confidence on timing, intensity, and snow levels.
Wednesday evening through Thursday morning features steady mountain snow, brief convective bursts, and some of the week’s strongest winds. The ECMWF, the AIFS, the GFS, the ICON, and the GDPS line up on a cold profile with snow levels well below 5,000 feet, keeping every resort in snow from base to summit. Snow-to-liquid ratios stay high, largely in the 15-20:1 range, and mid-mountain temperatures stay in the single digits to teens °F during the steadiest snow, so the snow that falls should stack up light and chalky. Wind will be a real factor, especially Wednesday night into early Thursday, with ridge gusts capable of pushing into the 50-70 mph range at times and creating pockets of wind scour and wind-loaded stashes. Models converge on the timing and the cold snow levels, while they still split on where the steadiest bands park, so confidence is high in widespread new snow and a bit lower on who wins the early totals.
A stronger reload Thursday night into Friday delivers the best accumulation and the best chance for deep turns before the storm winds down early Saturday. Guidance tightens up on this second surge being the heavier part of the cycle, and every model keeps snow levels low enough for snow at all elevations around the resorts. Storm totals through early Saturday favor southern Colorado, led by Wolf Creek at 18″-25″ and Telluride at 8″-12″, while Steamboat tracks toward 10″-13″ and much of the central mountains, including Summit County, Vail, and Snowmass, fall into a broad 4″-12″ range. Snow-to-liquid ratios stay mostly in the mid to upper teens, so quality remains very good, and Friday should deliver the deepest turns of the cycle at the resorts that avoid the worst wind. Winds ease compared to the first punch, but models still point to gusty upper mountain conditions that could limit fully exposed lifts at times.
After the storm cycle ends, guidance favors a calmer and much warmer stretch for a few days, then attention shifts to a lower-confidence storm window later next week. The longer-range signal keeps snowfall limited for a bit, so the immediate story becomes preservation as temperatures rise and sun-exposed slopes turn more variable. Farther out, the broader pattern leans warmer than normal and keeps Colorado favored for above-normal late-February precipitation, which supports another round of mountain snowfall in the back half of the forecast. Confidence drops because timing and storm track vary, with the ECMWF and the AIFS generally wetter and milder, and the GFS tending toward a later, colder solution. Plan for another meaningful chance at powder, with the best odds of a foot-plus refresh in higher terrain if the wetter scenarios hold.
Resort Forecast Totals (Wed Feb 18 – Sat Feb 21)
- Wolf Creek – 18″-25″
- Steamboat – 10″-13″
- Crested Butte – 9″-12″
- Snowmass – 9″-12″
- Telluride – 8″-12″
- Vail – 7″-9″
- Beaver Creek – 6″-8″
- Winter Park – 5″-7″
- Monarch – 5″-7″
- Loveland – 5″-6″
- Arapahoe Basin – 4″-6″
- Copper Mountain – 4″-6″
- Breckenridge – 4″-5″
