Weather
California skiing is headed into a very warm, mostly dry stretch with no meaningful snowfall in sight. Tahoe and Mammoth warm steadily through the workweek, Mount Baldy runs even hotter, and confidence is strongest from Sunday through Friday night, March 20, when guidance is tightly packed around a dry ridge and only minor wind issues. A cooler step down shows up over the weekend into early next week, but even that period still lacks a credible storm signal, so the main story is spring weather rather than fresh snow.
Sunday through Tuesday stays quiet statewide, and the models are tightly converged on no meaningful storm timing or intensity at any California ski area. Sunday brings mild weather and generally light Sierra winds, while Mount Baldy has the clearest early breeze signal with east to northeast gusts around 25 to 30 mph Sunday into Monday. Tahoe resort temperatures rise from the low 50s on Sunday into the upper 50s and low 60s by Monday and Tuesday, Mammoth climbs from the upper 40s into the mid 50s, and Baldy holds near 60 before edging into the mid 60s. Guidance is also clustered on essentially no precipitation, so there is no fresh-snow reset to track and wind impacts stay limited outside exposed terrain in Southern California.
Tuesday through Friday is the heart of the warm spell, with the hottest readings Thursday and Friday, and guidance remains closely aligned on both temperature and the lack of snowfall. Most Tahoe and central Sierra resorts run afternoon temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s during this stretch, Mammoth reaches the upper 50s to low 60s, and Mount Baldy pushes the upper 60s to low 70s. Overnight temperatures stay unusually mild as well, with many Sierra resorts holding in the 40s to low 50s at night and Baldy staying mostly in the 50s to near 60. Wind guidance stays modest for most of the Sierra, generally under 15 mph at the resort forecasts with only occasional gusts into the 20s, so the dominant ski impact is sustained warmth rather than weather-driven disruption.
Confidence drops after Saturday, March 21, because the models still agree on dry weather but diverge more on how quickly the ridge relaxes and how much cooling follows. The broader signal favors a cooler but still mostly dry period Sunday through Tuesday, with many Sierra resorts easing back toward highs in the upper 40s and 50s while Mount Baldy likely settles in the upper 50s to low 60s. One longer-range solution tries to squeeze out only a trace of rain in the central Sierra early Tuesday, but it has no meaningful support elsewhere and no snowfall signal accompanies it. The larger late-March setup still leans warmer and drier than normal for California, so this looks like a step down from the heat rather than a true return to stormy skiing.
