Australia Snow Forecast: Wind and Up to 25 cm

Snowfall forecast map — Credit: NOAA/NCEP GFS

This Australia snow forecast brings a windy Wednesday-to-Friday refresh, led by southern Tasmania, while the mainland gets lighter top-ups. The first system favors dense rather than fluffy snow and could disrupt exposed lifts at times. A quieter break follows late in the weekend, then another snow chance develops from Tuesday into early Friday, but that later system remains too divided among the models for a precise snowfall call.

Tuesday is the quietest ski day, with dry weather, alpine temperatures mainly from 1-8 C, and strengthening northwesterly wind. Lift-served skiing is operating across the mainland resorts and at Ben Lomond, although terrain remains limited at Mount Baw Baw and Selwyn Snowfields, while Mount Mawson is on hold. Snow reaches Tasmania and parts of the mainland during Wednesday, becoming more widespread Wednesday night. The models are converging on that arrival and the colder turn, though they still differ by several hours on the onset in New South Wales.

The core of the first system runs from Wednesday night through Friday, followed by scattered flurries into early Sunday. The models converge on light mainland accumulations and the strongest snowfall at Mount Mawson, but diverge on how intense the Tasmanian core becomes. While snow is falling, they generally lower mainland snow levels from roughly 1,500-1,900 meters Wednesday to below 1,000 meters Thursday. SLRs mostly run 5-10, favoring wet, heavy snow in Tasmania and dense snow on the mainland. Guidance agrees on strong winds but differs on the peaks, with exposed mainland gusts near 80-120 km/h and stronger Tasmanian guidance exceeding 150 km/h. Confidence is highest from Wednesday morning through Sunday morning.

Monday should bring a relative break before a second possible system between Tuesday, July 28, and early Friday, July 31. The models diverge sharply here: some bring the main surge Tuesday, others delay it until Thursday, and several produce little or no mainland snow. They also differ on how quickly snow levels fall while precipitation is active and whether the strongest winds overlap the snowfall. A conservative expectation is 5-15 cm on favored peaks if the system consolidates, but a weak or dry outcome remains plausible, so this period is still speculative.