SnowBrains Winter 2025-26 Forecast: Month-by-Month and Region-by-Region — Where it’s Going to Snow This Winter

This SnowBrains Winter 2025-26 forecast was issued on September 15, 2025.

Bottom line for skiers

The base case is a weak, short-lived La Niña that emerges in October through December and then competes with ENSO-neutral in mid to late winter. That tilts storm tracks north early, then reduces the classic La Niña signal later. The Pacific backdrop matters: the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) is strongly negative, and marine heatwaves have re-intensified in parts of the northeast Pacific. Expect more Gulf of Alaska storm production and frequent northwest flow into the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockies, with the caveat that warm coastal waters can raise snow levels during some storms.

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Secondary players include an easterly-phase QBO (Quasi Biennial Oscillation) this fall, which historically lines up with a more disturbed polar vortex, while the concurrent solar-cycle peak could counteract that. Net result: a non-trivial sudden stratospheric warming risk in January to February, but not something to bet the entire season on. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is underway and tends to reinforce La Niña-like Walker circulation early in the season. Arctic sea ice set a record-low winter maximum in March and remains below average late in the summer, which is a background warming signal rather than a deterministic snowfall lever.

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Regionally, the likely winners are coastal and interior British Columbia, the Pacific Northwest, the Tetons, and much of the Northern Rockies. Northern Utah and Northern Colorado are solid but streaky. The Great Lakes have meaningful lake-effect opportunity. The southern tier from the Southern Sierra and SoCal to Arizona and New Mexico, Southern Colorado, and Southern Utah carries a real risk of underperforming. The Northeast and Quebec look near-normal as a base case with large event-to-event swings and a wildcard upside if a midwinter SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) materializes.

What is driving this winter

1) ENSO. Guidance favors a brief, weak La Niña in early winter, with odds near 70 percent in October through December that ease to roughly a coin flip by December through February as models split between La Niña and neutral. In practical terms, early-season patterns lean toward a La Niña-like North Pacific jet and a northern storm track, with that canonical signal fading later. Independent monitoring shows neutral as of early September with subsurface cooling that could tip the scales toward weak La Niña. Treat ENSO as a nudge rather than a dictator. For skiers, the early season favors more storms into British Columbia, the Pacific Northwest, and the Northern Rockies, while the southern tier tilts drier and warmer. Late winter becomes more model-agnostic with higher variance. Long-lead outlooks echo a wetter-north and drier-south idea with only weak temperature and precipitation teleconnections given the expected weakness and short duration.

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2) PDO and the North Pacific SST (sea-surface temperature) canvas. The PDO remains strongly negative, a regime that historically reinforces La Niña-style North Pacific patterns, deepening the Aleutian low and promoting Gulf of Alaska cyclogenesis. That tends to feed the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies with repeated storm energy. At the same time, marine heatwaves in parts of the northeast Pacific and along the coast can add moisture yet raise snow levels during atmospheric river periods, especially early before continental cold deepens. Translation: bigger storms at times, higher snowlines for some west-side events, and excellent resets when colder northwest flow follows.

3) QBO, the stratosphere, and the solar cycle. The QBO at 30 to 50 hPa has turned easterly. That phase is associated with a higher probability of a weaker polar vortex and midwinter SSWs that can tip patterns toward colder and blocked in the East for a few weeks. We are also near the peak of Solar Cycle 25, which often correlates with a stronger vortex. The combined effect points to a non-zero SSW risk in January to February, but not enough signal to build a seasonal plan around. Consider it a high-impact, low-predictability wildcard.

4) Indian Ocean Dipole. A negative IOD is established, with weekly DMI (Dipole Mode Index) values near negative one to negative one and a half degrees and negative monthly values late in summer. This typically enhances convection over Indonesia, reinforces the La Niña-like Walker cell, and favors stronger Pacific trades into late fall and early winter. It is a front-loaded assist that supports the early-season PNW and Northern Rockies idea and likely fades by midwinter.

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5) Arctic sea ice and the high latitudes. The Arctic set a record-low winter maximum in March 2025 and late-summer extent is below average. This is a strong background signal, but the direct connection to seasonal snowfall for skiers is weak. It can modulate storm tracks near Alaska and affect baroclinicity, yet it is not something to trade on for planning a ski season.

Region-by-region forecast for skiers

Alaska

Pattern bottom line: cold-leaning interior with near-normal coastal snowfall and big but intermittent Gulf-driven cycles. Southcentral and Southeast, including Alyeska and Turnagain, lean near-normal snowfall with cooler-than-average temperatures likely inland. La Niña composites allow occasional dry spells along the Gulf Coast, but large cycles are still on the table when the Gulf activates. The Interior and Alaska Range tilt colder, while snowfall is more track-dependent. Near to slightly below normal is a reasonable base case unless Gulf lows penetrate farther inland. Confidence is low to moderate because ENSO teleconnections are weaker this far north.

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Coastal and Interior British Columbia

Pattern bottom line: frequent early and mid-season storms with excellent upper-mountain preservation and occasional snowline swings. Whistler-Blackcomb, Revelstoke, Kicking Horse, Big White, and Sun Peaks are favored for above-normal snowfall, especially in early and mid-season, thanks to frequent Gulf waves and northwest flow refreshers. Snow levels can spike during atmospheric rivers, which means base elevations yo-yo while upper mountains outperform. Confidence is moderate to high.

Pacific Northwest

Pattern bottom line: stormy and front-loaded with frequent reloads and classic post-frontal northwest-flow powder. Baker, Stevens, Crystal, Alpental, Timberline and Bachelor, and Schweitzer have high odds of above-normal snowfall and an early-start potential from November into December. Expect frequent reloads with periodic high snowlines during warm AR pulses followed by excellent post-frontal powder on colder northwest flow. Confidence is high.

Northern Rockies outside the Tetons

Pattern bottom line: consistent northwest flow and steady accumulations with periodic cold shots. Idaho and Montana resorts benefit from colder northwest flow and frequent clipper-type waves. Above-normal snowfall is favored, with the Bitterroots, areas adjacent to the Monashees, and the Montana Hi-Line showing particular promise. Confidence is moderate to high.

Tetons and the Yellowstone region

Pattern bottom line: classic La Niña feel with recurrent northwest flow and deep days when troughs dig. Jackson Hole and Grand Targhee are favored above normal, driven by recurring northwest flow plus occasional deeper troughs. This is the classic La Niña Teton setup when it is active. Confidence is moderate to high.

Wasatch and Northern Utah

Pattern bottom line: solid but streaky with big wins on northwest flow and short jet dips south. Alta, Snowbird, Brighton, Solitude, and Park City lean near to slightly above normal, with the best windows during northwest flow and when the jet sags south for a few days. There is big upside in synoptic troughs. The main risk is midwinter lulls if the track hugs the Canadian border. Confidence is moderate.

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Southern Utah and the Arizona High Country

Pattern bottom line: drier overall with opportunistic powder tied to inside sliders and cutoffs. Brian Head, Arizona Snowbowl, and Sunrise lean below normal given a southern-tier dryness signal and fewer deep Pacific taps. Powder will be opportunistic, with inside sliders and cutoff lows offering the best windows. Confidence is moderate.

Colorado

Pattern bottom line: north beats south, with I-70 highly variable and the south relying on upslope or cutoffs. Northern Colorado, including Steamboat, Winter Park, and Eldora, leans near to slightly above normal on northwest flow and northern storm tracks. The I-70 central corridor, from Vail and Beaver Creek to Copper, A-Basin, Breck, and Keystone, is near normal with large variance, which means a few well-timed troughs will make or break the season’s feel. Southern Colorado, from Crested Butte to Wolf Creek and Purgatory, along with nearby Taos, is below normal, although upslope and cutoff scenarios can still deliver short, excellent stretches. Confidence is moderate.

Sierra Nevada

Pattern bottom line: variable with altitude key, near-normal north and lean south, time colder windows around ARs. The Northern Sierra from Mt. Rose to Palisades Tahoe and Sugar Bowl sits near normal as a base case but with higher variance than usual. Early season can pop if the Aleutian low displaces far enough south. Later winter carries a risk that the track stays north. The Central and Southern Sierra, including Kirkwood, Mammoth, and SoCal resorts, lean below normal because of the southern-tier dryness signal and occasional high snowlines during ARs. Colder northwest troughs and inside sliders are the best bets. Confidence is low to moderate in the north and moderate in the central and south.

Northern and Interior U.S. Rockies

Pattern bottom line: favorable pattern with frequent waves and a cooler bias that helps quality. Sun Valley, Big Sky, Bridger, Red Lodge, and Lookout Pass are favored above normal on repeated northwest flow and frequent mid-latitude storm passages. A modestly colder bias helps snow quality. Confidence is moderate to high.

Great Lakes snowbelts

Pattern bottom line: periodic lake-effect bursts tied to cold intrusions, totals dependent on lake temperatures. Near to above-normal seasonal totals are favored given a northern storm track and periodic cold-air intrusions. Actual magnitude will hinge on lake temperatures and the frequency and depth of arctic shots. Confidence is moderate.

Northeast, New England, and Quebec

Pattern bottom line: near-normal baseline with large swings and a late pop possible if blocking develops. Jay Peak, Stowe, Sugarloaf, Sunday River, Killington, Tremblant, Le Massif, and the Chic-Chocs start near-normal as the base case, with a mix of rain-to-snow cutters, clipper streaks, and occasional coastal bombs. A mid or late winter SSW would increase the odds of blocked, colder windows and higher nor’easter potential, but that is not predictable at this lead. Confidence is low to moderate.

Month-by-month powder windows

November to December

La Niña, a negative IOD, and a negative PDO combine to front-load the British Columbia, Pacific Northwest, and Northern Rockies storm pipeline. Early openings and reliable refresh potential are in play. The Sierra is boom or bust depending on how far south the Gulf lows dig. Confidence is moderate.

January

The north remains favored, although a first SSW would change the downstream picture for a couple of weeks. If it occurs, watch the East and Northeast for colder, blocked stretches and the Interior West for transient cold troughs. Confidence is low on SSW timing and moderate on continued northern bias.

February

The ENSO signal may weaken toward neutral, which increases volatility. The Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies stay in the game. Utah and Colorado can score on clipper activity and troughs that rotate through the Northern Rockies. The Northeast has upside if blocking sets up. Confidence is low to moderate.

March

Classic spring reloads are possible in the West if the Aleutian low remains active. Otherwise, expect higher snowlines on the west side with excellent high-elevation skiing at places like Mammoth, the upper mountain at Palisades, and the Whistler alpine. Confidence is low to moderate.

Where confidence is higher, and where it is not

Confidence is highest in the persistence of a negative PDO, in a weak early-winter La Niña tilt that favors northern precipitation, and in the presence of a negative IOD that supports that early-season configuration. Confidence is lower in how ENSO evolves after midwinter, in the timing and occurrence of any stratospheric disturbance, and in storm-to-storm snow levels near the coast when marine heatwaves interact with atmospheric rivers.

Bottom line

To maximize powder days in 2025–26, play the odds early in British Columbia, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Tetons. Hedge into northern Utah and northern Colorado as winter matures, and stay nimble for event-scale windows elsewhere. Treat any late-winter East Coast boom as a bonus scenario that depends on stratospheric disruption rather than a base plan. The southern tier, from the Southern Sierra and SoCal to Arizona and New Mexico, and the Southern Rockies carries a real underperformance risk this year. The combination of a brief, weak La Niña, a negative PDO, a negative IOD early, and a still-warm northeast Pacific points to north-favored storminess early in the season, with larger variance later.