SnowBrains Forecast: Where to Ski in South America in 2026, According to the Seasonal Forecast

2026 South America Ski Season Forecast Overview

The 2026 South America ski season forecast points toward a favorable winter for the high central Andes. The strongest upside sits in Chile’s core ski belt and the adjacent highest terrain in Argentina, especially where resorts can stay cold during Pacific moisture events. The setup supports improvement, and the warm signal keeps the snowfall call from getting too aggressive. This season should reward elevation and leave low terrain more vulnerable.

The setup

As of early April 2026, the tropical Pacific is in transition. The weak La Niña that lingered through late summer is fading, neutral conditions are favored through late autumn, and El Niño becomes the leading outcome as winter begins and matures in the Southern Hemisphere. Warmth has already expanded below the surface across the equatorial Pacific, and waters closest to South America have turned positive first, which is exactly the kind of evolution that matters for a South American winter forecast. The main uncertainty is timing, because autumn ENSO forecasts always carry extra noise, so confidence rises for midwinter more than it does for June.

That matters because central Chile has one of the cleanest winter ENSO relationships in the Southern Hemisphere. When the Pacific warms, the belt from roughly 30°S to 35°S tilts wetter in winter as the large-scale wave pattern and moisture transport become more favorable for Pacific storms reaching the Andes. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a huge part of that story. Across the southern Andes study area, they account for about half of annual snow accumulation, and the snow they produce is about two and a half times more intense than snowfall from non-AR events. A few well-placed storm cycles can build a season quickly in this range.

The other major lever sits farther south over the ocean. Central and south-central Chile get wetter in winter when the South Pacific High pressure is weaker and displaced westward, because frontal systems can drive into the coast and lift hard over the Andes instead of getting deflected away. The Southern Annular Mode, or SAM, helps decide where the westerly storm belt sets up. SAM is neutral right now and the Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral too, so no strong secondary forcing is currently dominating the picture. SAM still remains the biggest spoiler risk. Positive SAM episodes push storm tracks south and favor drying in central Chile and warming and drying in Patagonia, while negative SAM episodes sharply improve the central Andes snow outlook. El Niño years also line up with negative SAM more often than chance would suggest, which gives this forecast a little extra support.

The seasonal model envelope supports that logic, but it does so with restraint. Precipitation guidance over the Andes is patchy and modestly favorable rather than overwhelmingly wet, especially once you account for the coarse resolution of seasonal maps in steep terrain. Temperature guidance is much clearer. Most of Chile and Argentina lean warmer than normal from early winter into spring. The autumn lead-in also argues for patience in June, since central Chile entered the season with a normal to below-normal precipitation signal while farther south looked somewhat better for early moisture.

How Warm Temperatures Will Affect South American Ski Resorts in 2026

Warm winters can still produce big totals in the Andes, but storm temperature decides where the skiing actually improves. In central Chile, the freezing level during precipitation commonly sits around 1,500 to 2,500 meters, and in roughly one-third of storms it rises above 3,000 meters. That makes lower lifts, access roads, and base villages especially vulnerable during the very events that bring the most moisture. The background trend adds another layer of risk. South of about 29°S, snow persistence has dropped by two to five days per year in many sectors, the snowline has climbed by about 10 to 30 meters per year, and satellite analyses show rapid snow-cover losses across central Chile in recent decades.

That point matters for skiers more than any seasonal snowfall number. A warm Pacific plume can still hammer the upper mountain and leave great skiing up high, while the lower half of the resort gets dense snow, rain, or quick settlement. In a cold-leaning winter, one storm often improves the whole mountain. In a warm-leaning winter, elevation slices the mountain into winners and losers. That is why the 2026 call leans hardest toward the highest central Andes terrain and stays more conservative for resorts with lower bases or a bigger share of skiing near the rain-snow line.

2026 Andes Snow Forecast by Resort Region

Central Andes Forecast: Portillo, Valle Nevado, La Parva, El Colorado

For the central Andes, the forecast is favorable. Portillo, Valle Nevado, La Parva, and the upper mountain at El Colorado sit in the part of the range most likely to benefit from the evolving Pacific pattern, and they also have a cleaner path through warm storms than many lower or farther south competitors. Las Leñas has upside too, especially from midwinter forward, although the Argentine side always depends more on spillover and on getting the storm track lined up just right because the Andes wring much more moisture out on the Chilean side. Our call here is near normal to above normal snowfall in the high central Andes overall, with the most reliable stretch of the season favored from mid-July through August. The upper mountain story should look better than the lower mountain story.

South-Central Andes Forecast: Nevados de Chillán, Chapelco, Catedral, La Hoya

For Nevados de Chillán, Corralco, Caviahue, Chapelco, Catedral, and La Hoya, the signal gets murkier. South of the core central-Chile latitude band, snow conditions respond more strongly to SAM and storm-track details, and the El Niño boost loses some consistency. These resorts can still have a very good winter. The broader setup just points to more volatility than in the high central Andes. We expect a mixed season that lands close to normal overall, with slightly better odds on the Chilean west side and in the highest volcanic terrain, and more variability on the Argentine side where lower elevations stay exposed to warm intrusions and rain-shadow effects.

Patagonia Ski Forecast: Cerro Castor and Far Southern Andes

Farther south, including Cerro Castor, confidence drops again. The far southern Andes live on storm-track placement, wind, and the exact phasing of the circumpolar westerlies, so the signal there is less cleanly tied to the emerging tropical Pacific pattern than it is in central Chile. The broad warm tilt in seasonal guidance keeps us from making an aggressive snow call, and positive SAM periods would work against a standout season. The latitude still preserves access to real cold when the pattern lines up, so we lean near normal at best, with a fairly wide spread around that outcome.

2026 South America Ski Season: Final Forecast Summary

June looks transitional and somewhat uneven, especially in the central Andes where the tropical Pacific signal may still be ramping up. July should turn more productive, and August has the best chance to be the peak month for central Chile and Las Leñas. September can still deliver, but the warm background should widen the gap between upper-mountain quality and lower-mountain durability. For skiers planning a trip, the clearest 2026 strategy is to aim high and aim central.

Our overall call is favorable for the high central Andes of Chile and adjacent Argentina, near normal for the south-central ski belt, and lower confidence with a smaller chance of a standout season in far southern Patagonia.