July 2023 ENSO Update: 90% Chance El Niño Continues Through Winter This article originally appeared on climate.gov The chance that our young El Niño will continue through the winter is greater than 90%. Why are forecasters so confident? What are the chances of a strong El Niño? And what effect does El Niño have on global climate patterns? We have a lot to talk about today, so let’s get to it! […] Weather WeatherBrains | July 13, 2023 1 Comment
NASA: El Niño Returns After three consecutive years of La Niña, spring 2023 saw the return of El Niño—a natural climate phenomenon characterized by the presence of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (and higher sea levels) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño is associated with the weakening of easterly trade winds and the movement of warm water from the […] Weather WeatherBrains | June 21, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA: El Niño Has Arrived – Could Lead to New Temperature Records Expected to be moderate-to-strong by late fall/early winter The expected El Niño has emerged, according to scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. In the monthly outlook released today, forecasters issued an El Niño Advisory, noting that El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the winter. Related: Australian Bureau […] Weather SnowBrains | June 9, 2023 0 Comments
Australian Bureau of Meteorology Activates El Niño Alert The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (‘BOM’) has shifted its ENSO Outlook to El Niño alert, indicating a 70% chance of El Niño forming this year. This equates to roughly three times the normal chance of an El Niño forming. Central and Eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (‘SSTs’) have warmed to El Niño thresholds. All models surveyed by the Bureau forecast […] Industry News Oz Brains | June 6, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA May 2023 ENSO Update: El Niño Knocking on the Door The tropical Pacific sure knows how to get out of a rut! Just two months after declaring the demise of an almost interminable La Niña, above-average surface temperatures have reclaimed the tropical Pacific, and temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific are expected to continue to rise. Consequently, an El Niño Watch remains in place, with El Niño conditions likely to develop within the next […] Weather WeatherBrains | May 12, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Blog: Why Making El Niño Forecasts in the Spring Is Especially Anxiety-Inducing Given the relatively high probabilities for El Niño in our team’s April 2023 ENSO update, I decided to team up with some of my scientific colleagues, Antonietta Capotondi (NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory and University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) and Aaron Levine (@afzlevine, University of Washington, Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies), to explain why […] Weather WeatherBrains | May 8, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA May Outlook: “Wetter Than Average for West Coast” What does the May outlook from NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center look like? According to NOAA, May will be: Wetter than average for the Gulf Coast/West Coast. Drier-than-average for the Great Lakes/Midwest Warmer than average for the Pacific NW, Florida and New England Cooler than average for the SW and Tennessee Valley. NOAA reports that drought in May is expected […] Weather WeatherBrains | May 2, 2023 0 Comments
Why Did California Break So Many Records This Winter Even Though It Was La Niña? I am sure by now you are well aware of the record-breaking winter that California just experienced! To put this into perspective, the high terrain of California’s current snowpack is in the range of 195% to 300% of the normal average for this time of the season. Even more interesting is the snow water equivalent (amount of water locked up […] Weather Matthew Oliphant | April 25, 2023 0 Comments
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