The 2025-26 FIS Alpine World Cup season is heading into its last inning: the World Cup Finals. With four races—one in each discipline—at Lillehammer, Norway, from March 21 to 25, and 400 points still on the table, the race for the women’s Overall Crystal Globe has narrowed to a two-athlete duel between Mikaela Shiffrin and Emma Aicher.
- Related: Mikaela Shiffrin Returns to Super-G in Val di Fassa, Italy, as Overall Crystal Globe Battle Tightens
Shiffrin leads the season’s overall standings with 1,286 points, holding a 140-point advantage over Aicher on 1,146. Some seasons, the crystal globe is decided before the World Cup Finals, as is the case on the men’s side this season, where Marco Odermatt leads by more than 600 points. The last time Shiffrin won the overall season globe in 2022-23, the American dominated the standings by nearly 1,000 points after the final races, winning with 2,206 points ahead of Lara Gut-Behrami. When the gap narrows and a contest to the very end is on the cards, it adds a unique excitement to the World Cup Finals.
So what would it take for Shiffrin to win? She is currently in the lead by 140 points, but with 400 points up for grabs, this could not be enough to claim the globe. Under the FIS system, the winner claims 100 points, while second place is awarded 80 points, third 60 points, and so on. However, at the World Cup Finals, only the top 15 skiers are awarded points, adding to the pressure to perform. There are no easy points for a skier to pick up—finishing outside the top 15 yields zero, dramatically increasing volatility.
At the center of the rivalry are two very different ski racers: a seasoned tech specialist, who amassed 880 points out of a possible 900 in slalom racing alone, and a young gun who won her first World Cup race just a year ago, but has the advantage of competing across all four disciplines. On the one hand we have an athlete that skis with such dominance and reliability, it feels almost certain that she will win the slalom race next week. On the other hand we have someone who has the ability to podium in all four disciplines, but who has also racked up a fair share of DNFs over the season.
The odds of Shiffrin winning the slalom are very high. With a historical winning rate of 88.9% for the current season, a smoothed statistical probability of winning the slalom in Lillehammer sits between 75–85%. This would give her an additional 100 points, and put Aicher under pressure to win at least 240 points in total to tie with Shiffrin. Aicher could, for example, win two races and finish sixth, or finish in second place across three races to achieve that. Either way, she would have to ski extremely well across several disciplines. At the Olympics, Aicher managed to win two silver medals but DNFed in the Super-G and placed 19th in the Giant Slalom, showing how difficult it can be to perform across four disciplines in one week under immense pressure.
Realistically, the odds are very much in Shiffrin’s favour. One victory would make her almost untouchable—but just almost. She is not infallible—she has struggled with pressure, and on any given day, someone else can outski her, as Camille Rast has shown during the season. If Shiffrin were to DNF—something she has not done in slalom in more than two years but is a possibility—Aicher would only need 140 points, which she could pick up with a few sixth- or seventh-place finishes across the four disciplines.
There are still too many moving parts to call a winner—and that will make for exciting watching at the World Cup Finals. The first race will be the downhill on Saturday, March 21. Shiffrin was not registered for training on Thursday, March 19, so will not compete, as downhill training is compulsory. If Aicher can place on the podium, the hunt for the crystal globe will certainly intensify, with the gap narrowing to 40 points if she wins. A victory or DNF by either skier will massively reshuffle the odds. Irrespective of the result, 22-year-old Aicher can look back on an incredible season, in which she claimed nine podium spots—including three victories. For Shiffrin, it is another dominant season in slalom skiing and a successful return to her old form in Giant Slalom. Whatever happens during the World Cup Finals, one thing is certain: it will stay exciting until the very end.
The World Cup Finals will take place in Lillehammer—home of the 1994 Olympics from March 21 -25.
March 21:
- 10:45 a.m. CET Men’s downhill
- 12:30 p.m. CET Women’s downhill
March 22:
- 10:45 a.m. CET Women’s super-G
- 12:30 p.m. CET Men’s super-G
March 24:
- 09:30 a.m. CET Men’s giant slalom run 1
- 10:30 a.m. CET Women’s slalom run 1
- 12:30 p.m. CET Men’s giant slalom run 2
- 13:30 p.m. CET Women’s slalom run 2
March 25:
- 09:30 a.m. CET Women’s giant slalom run 1
- 10:30 a.m. CET Men’s slalom run 1
- 12:30 p.m. CET Women’s giant slalom run 2
- 13:30 p.m. CET Men’s slalom run 2
Let’s go Emma!!!!