The 2026-27 European Alps’ Winter Forecast

We’ve arrived at meteorological fall, and climate models are beginning to zero in on the Alps’ winter forecast. You’ve already been inundated with content about the outlook for North American winter and what it means for skiers. But what can we expect in the Alps for this year? 

Firstly, anytime anyone (or any computer) tells you they can predict the future months in advance, that advice should be taken with a grain of salt. It’s no different with long-term weather forecasts. Not only do they err, long-term forecast are notoriously vague in seasonality. You could have two cold, snowy months, and four warm dry months in the same winter — the outcome might be a warm dry winter, but it was good if you were there at the right time. Nevertheless, we can still use these tools to help give us an idea for what to expect in skiing this winter. Plus, let’s admit it; trying to predict the future is just a fun past-time. 

• Related: Snow Finally Returns to the Alps After a Historically Hot Summer

C3S and SEA5 Outlooks

C3S stands for the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the EU’s climate-information service, implemented by ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts – like Europe’s version of NOAA). Its primary seasonal forecasting product is a multi-model ensemble that combines international seasonal forecasts, including France, the U.K., Canada, Japan, and Australia. 

Right now, the C3S is giving us a mixed bag. Let’s unpack what’s going on. The two most important signals we watch for in winter sports are precipitation and temperature. First, the models point to an above-average precipitation signal across Europe. So that’s a good thing, because you can’t have snow without precipitation. 

Unfortunately, the temperature signal is a bit less rosy. We’re looking at a 70-100% chance of temperatures in the highest tercile. The models are very confident that, overall, this winter will fall in the warmest 33% of winters (at least in the heart of winter). Going deeper into that signal, we’re seeing 50-70% of a winter in the upper 20%, which is starting to get into exceptionally warm territory. But who can be surprised – if you’ve been in Europe for the last four months, you’ve probably completely forgotten what it’s like to not be boiling hot all the time. 

The Alps shouldn’t take this personally. Most of the rest of the planet is likely to face exceptionally high temperatures, too. That’s not a surprise when you combine a strong El Niño with a backdrop of elevated temperatures from ongoing human-caused climate change. 

Active Storm Track?

Another interesting chart this season is the Mean MSLP anomaly. This tells us whether the atmosphere will be, on average, a higher or lower pressure at sea level. We can see a definite band of low-pressure stretch across the globe, strongest at Western North America. 

From the MSLP chart, we can infer that the storm track may follow a relatively west → east path. That would mean moisture-laden systems coming off the Atlantic Ocean – and we know that maritime air is relatively mild. That scenario fits neatly with models showing a mild, wet winter. In this pattern, the western and northern sides of the Alps benefit over the southern side.

We can also look at the SEA5 model, which is the ECMWF’s leading climate prediction model and the most reliable set included in the C3S ensemble. The SEA5 offers a similar outlook, but with a bit higher resolution and the main precipitation focused on the west and north sides of the Alps, which would make more sense if the storm track is westerly.

Factors at Play

Let’s talk about some of the main factors at play in this Alps’ winter forecast. First and foremost is El Niño, one of the strongest ever unleashed. While the main effects of El Niño are found closer to the source, i.e., western North America, the phenomenon has global climatic repercussions. Europe is typically fairly neutral during El Niño and La Niña seasons, meaning snowfall can swing either way. However, this El Niño is expected to crank a lot of water vapor into the atmosphere. Models suggest a band across the entire Northern Hemisphere may be wetter than average this winter. Moreover, warmer air can hold more moisture, so warmer winters are statistically more likely to be wetter. 

A wildcard factor could be the absurdly high temperature anomalies in the Mediterranean Sea. Because of specific heat properties, water cools at a much slower pace than land. Therefore, this marine heatwave is likely to persist into winter, which will significantly increase the potential amount of water vapor contained in the atmosphere above it. With the right type of storm to harness this moisture — i.e. a Genoa low system — it could generate excess snowfall over the southern Alps. However, that snowfall could also come with a higher rain/snow line, as the waters feeding it are much warmer than usual.

Where to Go?

If the single most important factor in your planning is snow conditions, Switzerland and Austria are likely the best places to start, based on our (very) limited understanding of the Alps’ winter outlook. These countries occupy the north side of the Alps, where the C3S product (and the SEA5 model especially) is putting the highest odds of above-average precipitation. More importantly, these countries are home to several high-altitude resorts, many above 3,000 meters (10,000 feet), in the coldest — and, historically, the snowiest — part of the Alps. Lastly, these countries benefit from a more northerly flow and have more of a continental influence on temperatures, especially Austria. 

• Related: Top 9 Non-Megapass Ski Resorts in the Alps

The French Alps are also home to several towering megaresorts. Additionally, the pattern would likely benefit the western and northwestern portions of the range if it played out as forecast. The only issue is that the French Alps are more susceptible to mild, maritime air. Consequently, when storms draw moisture in from the west, snowlines can be 500-1,000 meters (1,650-3,300 feet) higher in France than in Switzerland and Austria.

The Bottom Line

Taken together, this winter’s Alps forecast is a study in patience: we’ll just have to wait and see. A mild westerly flow and active storm track doesn’t spell disaster — plenty of warm, wet winters have still produced excellent skiing at the right elevations — but it does mean location will matter more. Switzerland and Austria’s high-altitude, continentally-influenced resorts are best positioned to bank snow rather than rain, while the lower elevations of the French Alps’ could leave more room for disappointment if the mild pattern holds. As always with seasonal forecasting, treat this as a probability, not a promise.