The State of the Australian Snowpack

When the Australian ski season began with one of the slowest starts in years, it raised the inevitable question: was 2026 destined to become another poor winter? At the start of July, we examined every season since snow records began and identified 15 winters that had started similarly slowly. Now, with another three weeks of data in the books, it’s time to see how this season stacks up. The short answer? Almost perfectly average.

• Related: SnowBrains Forecast: Up to 15 cm for Australia Through Thursday

Snowy Hydro, which has monitored snow depth in the Australian Alps for more than 70 years, conducts weekly snow surveys at three alpine sites, including the benchmark Spencer’s Creek, widely regarded as the best long-term indicator of Australia’s seasonal snowpack. For our original analysis, a “slow start” was defined as any season recording less than 20 cm (8 inches) of snow at Spencer’s Creek during either week four or week five of winter (June 22-July 5). That threshold identified 15 comparable seasons: 1957, 1959, 1963, 1967, 1979, 1980, 1982, 1984, 1989, 1991, 1997, 2001, 2015, 2017, and 2020.

Now, comparing the 2026 snowpack against those historical “slow start” seasons reveals that 2026 currently sits almost exactly in the middle of the pack. Of the 15 comparable winters, eight had accumulated less snow by this point, while seven had accumulated more. In other words, despite the painfully slow beginning, this winter remains remarkably “average” when compared with previous slow-start seasons.

On July 21, 2026, Spencer’s Creek recorded a snow depth of 68 cm (27 inches), only slightly below its seasonal high of 70.8 cm (28 inches) measured on July 15, 2026. That compares favorably when compared to the 15 comparable “slow start” seasons. During week 7 of the winter (July 13-19), the average snow depth across those 15 seasons was 55.4 cm (21.8 inches), while the median was 58.6 cm (23.1 inches). Snow depths during that week ranged from a low of just 14.5 cm (5.7 inches) to a high of 105 cm (41.3 inches).

Likewise, 2026 is above the historical “slow start” average for week 8 (July 20-26). The historical average for week 8 increases to 67.5 cm (26.6 inches), with a median of 65.7 cm (25.9 inches). Recorded depths ranged from only 13 cm (5.1 inches) to 121.9 cm (48 inches) for those 15 winters. In short: the current season sits almost exactly on those averages, if not slightly above.

That is encouraging news because Australia’s snowiest period is only just beginning. Historically, late July through August is when the Australian snowpack builds most rapidly. Many of Australia’s biggest storms have arrived during this period, meaning the next four to five weeks will ultimately determine how this season turns out — but the odds are looking favorably. It certainly won’t end as “the worst season ever” despite many tabloids heralding this season as such prematurely.

Additionally, recent snowfall has certainly helped the outlook. Australian resorts picked up 9 to 12 cm (3.5 to 4.7 inches) of fresh snow over the past 24 hours, refreshing slopes and providing another welcome boost to the snowpack. With another 10 to 15 cm (3.9 to 5.9 inches) forecast to fall overnight, things are looking up for Australia.