Weather
The biggest lesson from the past ski season in the Western U.S. was sitting right at the snowline. Storms came, forecasts teased, and some areas even stacked up decent-looking precipitation totals. The problem was colder and more specific than a simple lack of weather: too much of that water failed to become durable mountain snow.
That is the signature of a warm snow drought. A dry snow drought is straightforward, the mountains do not get enough precipitation. A warm snow drought is more frustrating for skiers because the atmosphere can still look active. The water shows up, but it arrives as rain, heavy wet snow, or snow that melts too early to build a lasting pack. The mountain gets weather, but the snowpack does not get the full benefit.
A new Journal of Hydrology study puts this problem into a global mountain context. The research analyzed snow drought drivers from 1980 to 2021 using snow water equivalent, precipitation, and temperature across mountain ranges worldwide. Dry snow droughts still dominate the historical record, including 68% of Northern Hemisphere mountain area in the yearly analysis. The sharper takeaway is the shift: more mountain terrain is moving toward temperature as the driver that matters most. In the Northern Hemisphere, 45% of mountain area changed its dominant snow drought type between 1980 to 2000 and 2001 to 2021, with core winter months showing more area flipping from precipitation-driven drought toward temperature-driven drought than the reverse.
Western North America Is Already Living This
Western North America shows up clearly in the warm snow drought zone. The study found warm snow droughts as the dominant type in mountain ranges across Western North America, South America, and parts of Central Asia. It also found that Northern Hemisphere snow drought area has increased over time in every month studied, with the biggest increases near the tail end of the season, especially March, April, and May. That hits ski country right where it hurts, because late winter and spring snowpack drive both resort conditions and summer water supply.
The 2025 to 2026 season turned that research into a lived experience. By February 1, Western U.S. snow cover had dropped to the lowest February 1 extent in the MODIS satellite record since 2001, while Oregon, Colorado, and Utah posted record-low statewide snowpack in the SNOTEL era. A dry, warm January cut off accumulation and started eating into what had already fallen, leaving lower elevations bare and higher elevations holding the only reliable snow.
Then March slammed the door. Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming all set record-low April 1 snow water equivalent values in the SNOTEL record, while California logged its second-lowest April 1 SWE.
Peak SWE across Western states arrived an average of 21 to 34 days early, and the Colorado River Basin ran 13.7°F warmer than normal in March.
This was not one clean, uniform drought type everywhere. Some basins were simply dry. March was brutally dry in key places, and the West did not get enough cold-season storm recovery in time. Still, temperature was the season’s defining lever in many places. Washington had above-average water-year precipitation in many areas, yet snow drought stayed widespread because warm storms brought more rain than snow. Oregon’s poor snowpack was driven primarily by record warmth, with statewide SWE sitting at just 12% of median peak by early April.
Why Skiers Should Care About the Driver
For ski areas, a warm snow drought is uniquely punishing. A dry year is obvious: the storms miss, totals stay low, and everyone knows why the skiing is thin. A warm snow drought plays a nastier game. Storms appear on the models, precipitation totals look promising, and then the rain line surges. Lower-mountain terrain loses coverage, groomers freeze into coral reef, storm cycles end with drainage ditches running, and the best skiing gets squeezed into narrow elevation bands.
That distinction matters because precipitation can bounce around from year to year, while warming is a persistent trend. The study’s most important ski-season message is simple: the future of snow drought is increasingly tied to temperature. In vulnerable Northern Hemisphere mountain ranges that depend heavily on winter precipitation, warm snow droughts were the most common type from October through March, exactly when ski areas need storms to build and preserve base.
The snow-type breakdown drives the point home. Warmer snow climates, including ephemeral, maritime, and some montane zones, showed more warm snow drought behavior. Colder tundra and boreal snowpacks were still more often controlled by precipitation. That lines up with what Western skiers already see on the hill: lower elevations, maritime ranges, shoulder seasons, and marginal storm tracks take the first hit when temperatures run high.
The West still needs storms. Nobody skis a good winter on cold air alone. But the old storm-total mindset is no longer enough. The better question is how many storms stay cold enough, long enough, at the right elevations, to become stored snow. That was the letdown this season. It was not just missing powder days. It was watching water arrive and fail to become winter.
