Weather
The latest video from Direct Weather provides a detailed summer 2025 weather forecast, focusing on June, July, and August. The video explains that the forecast is based on several seasonal models. It highlights that the information is pre-recorded as part of a broader series covering all seasons, including upcoming fall and winter outlooks.
ENSO (El Niรฑo Southern Oscillation) Outlook
The ENSO is expected to remain neutral or slightly lean toward La Niรฑa throughout the summer and early winter. This neutral to La Niรฑa pattern typically leads to more active hurricane seasons and increased severe weather, especially as the season progresses into July and August. The forecast notes that shifting to El Niรฑo could reduce hurricane activity, but current models suggest a neutral trend.
Temperature Forecast
Most models agree that the western United States will experience the highest above-normal temperatures, with the east also warmer than average but less so than the west. The European, CFS, and CanSIPS models all indicate a positive Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern, with some models suggesting cooler conditions in the Plains and Midwest, potentially making for a more tolerable summer in those regions. The east may see a double ridge pattern, bringing warmer conditions and increased severe weather risk, especially in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
Precipitation Forecast
The European model predicts a dry summer in the west and wetter conditions in the east. In contrast, the CFS model is more variable but suggests dryness in the Gulf States and above-normal precipitation in the Plains, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. The CanSIPS model is considered an outlier, showing dryness in the north and wetness in the south, and the presenter advises caution in interpreting its results. The Climate Prediction Center’s outlook aligns closely with the European model, showing the driest conditions in the Plains and Northwest, with above-average precipitation along the eastern seaboard and in monsoon regions like Arizona and New Mexico.
Conclusion
The forecast anticipates a warm summer, especially in the west, with the potential for increased severe weather and hurricane activity due to neutral La Niรฑa ENSO conditions. The presenter encourages viewers to follow the ongoing seasonal outlook series for updates on fall and winter forecasts.
