Weather
Winter 2025-26 split the country in two. Much of the West spent the season fighting warmth, high snow lines, rain, and shallow bases. The Midwest and Northeast stacked colder air, better storm tracks, and far more dependable skiing. Measuring winter 2025-26 forecast accuracy for skiers gave SnowBrains a clean way to judge the preseason outlooks from The Old Farmer’s Almanac, Farmers’ Almanac, AccuWeather, NOAA, and Direct Weather. Which ones best describe the winter skiers actually experienced?
For skiers, forecast accuracy is not about whether an airport finished a degree above normal or whether a city picked up a little extra liquid. It is about whether storms fell as snow, whether resorts opened terrain on time, and whether the base held together through the heart of winter. NOAA deserves one caveat here because its outlook covered December through February and forecast temperature and total precipitation, not snowfall or the full ski season. Judged that way, AccuWeather came out on top overall. Farmers’ Almanac and Direct Weather did some of their best work east of the Mississippi, though Direct Weather also nailed California. NOAA had a useful signal in California and the Midwest, but major misses in the Pacific Northwest and Northeast dragged it down. The Old Farmer’s Almanac had some sharp western calls but could not recover from major misses in the East.
Winter 2025-26 Forecast Accuracy: California Was the Clearest Signal
California was the cleanest western signal of the season, and four of the five forecasters handled it well. AccuWeather, The Old Farmer’s Almanac, NOAA, and Direct Weather all leaned warm and under-snowy, which matched a Sierra season filled with high rain lines, a few brief holiday reloads, and a statewide snowpack that crashed to 18% of average by April 1. That was the right big-picture call for Tahoe and Mammoth. The Farmers’ Almanac at least caught the moisture idea, but it missed the more important part for skiers: too much of that moisture fell as rain rather than snow.
Pacific Northwest Forecast Accuracy: A Mixed But Telling Result
The Pacific Northwest was messier, but the verdict still favored The Old Farmer’s Almanac. It’s a warmer, lower-snow setup that fits a season of delayed openings, repeated rain events, and especially brutal conditions in Oregon. AccuWeather also recognized the rain problem, but it left too much room for a snowier outcome that never really showed up across the broader region. NOAA and Direct Weather both missed the region in the same basic way, leaning too cool and too snow-friendly for a winter defined by bad snow levels. The Farmers’ Almanac missed the mark outright with a colder, more powder-friendly pattern that did not match what most Cascades skiers got. Washington salvaged some quality stretches, especially later in the season, but Oregon’s collapse defined the region.
The Rockies Snow Drought That Broke Every Winter 2025-26 Forecast
Then came the Rockies, where all five forecasts ran into the same harsh reality. This was not just a subpar winter. It was a true snow drought. Colorado and Utah posted historically low snowpack totals, and major resorts across Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, and New Mexico received well below-normal snowfall. AccuWeather did the best of the five because it at least warned that much of the central and southern Rockies would be warm and dry. NOAA had some value around the southern dryness story, but it never captured how broad the snow drought would become. Direct Weather painted the region too broadly and too optimistically, especially in the core U.S. Rockies. The Old Farmer’s Almanac saw the warmth, too, but missed the scale of the collapse and overestimated the southern half of the region. Farmers’ Almanac was farthest off, advertising a very cold, snowy Rockies season that never developed.
Where Winter 2025-26 Forecast Accuracy Improved: The Great Lakes Belt
Once the focus shifted east, the standings changed fast. Farmers’ Almanac and AccuWeather both saw a stronger winter from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, and both were rewarded. NOAA and Direct Weather also picked up a useful signal in the Great Lakes. The Midwest delivered legit lake effect periods, a notable March blizzard, and strong seasons in the Great Lakes ski belt. Mount Bohemia crushed its seasonal average, and places like Lutsen stretched operations deep into spring. That gave Farmers’ Almanac one of its clearest wins, while NOAA and Direct Weather also earned real credit in the snow belts.
Northeast Accuracy: The Region That Rewarded Bold Eastern Forecasts
The Northeast backed that up. Northern New England and the Adirondacks put together one of their more consistently enjoyable winters in years, with resorts like Jay Peak, Stowe, Whiteface, and Cannon all finishing above normal snowfall. AccuWeather aged especially well here. It called for a more active eastern winter, highlighted the potential for nor’easters, and captured the broad setup that kept the region reloading. Farmers’ Almanac also deserves real credit. Its snowy, cold eastern theme matched what skiers actually found in the mountains. Direct Weather belongs in that group, too. Its colder, stormier Northeast call held up well, especially on interior snowfall and coastal-storm potential.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac went the other way and paid for it. Its outlook leaned toward warm and below-normal snow across both the Midwest and Northeast. That was still one of the clearest misses in the group. NOAA also missed badly in the Northeast, leaning warm along the East Coast and offering little to point skiers toward a banner winter in New England and upstate New York. If you had used either map to plan New England or Adirondack trips, you would have been pointed away from some of the best ski regions in the country.
Final Rankings: Grading Winter 2025-26 Forecast Accuracy Across All Five Outlets
The overall grades from the five SnowBrains evaluations tell the story clearly. AccuWeather finished first with a B. Farmers’ Almanac and Direct Weather tied for second at C+. NOAA came in at C. The Old Farmer’s Almanac finished at C-.
AccuWeather captured the season’s backbone better than anyone else. It understood that the West was vulnerable and the East had better snow potential, even if it was still too generous to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Farmers’ Almanac was more regional. It looked smart if you lived in the Great Lakes or New England and much less useful if you were chasing storms in California, Oregon, Utah, or Colorado. Direct Weather was also regional in a different way. It nailed California and the Northeast, had some value in the Great Lakes, and gave the Pacific Northwest and Rockies a snowier future than they ever got. NOAA landed in the middle. It helped in California and the Midwest, then lost ground fast in the Pacific Northwest, the Rockies, and especially the Northeast. The Old Farmer’s Almanac almost flipped the Farmers’ Almanac pattern. It did some of its best work in California and parts of the Cascades, then lost ground fast with major eastern misses.
The bigger takeaway is simple: winter 2025-26 rewarded the forecast that best understood where snow would actually ski well. Warm storms and bad rain lines defined the West. Colder air and more reliable reloads defined the East. No preseason forecast nailed every region, and nobody fully captured how ugly the Rockies would get, but one outlook gave skiers the best overall compass. This year, that was AccuWeather.
