With the Warmest-Ever Winter Forecast, Head North, Where Winter is Still a Thing

This article is brought to you by SkiBig3.

Nowhere in North America performs as well during anomalously warm winters as SkiBig3. Home to three legendary ski resorts in Banff National Park, SkiBig3 brings together Banff Sunshine, Lake Louise Ski Resort, and Mt. Norquay, all within easy reach of the town of Banff. The dreaded r-word (rain) is practically unknown at Lake Louise, Banff Sunshine, and Norquay during the core winter months, no matter what it’s doing elsewhere.

Skiers and riders across the land have already been inundated with content about this year’s budding “Super El Niño.” It’s better advertised than The Odyssey was this past summer. At this point, we can either keep crossing our fingers and feverishly checking for climate updates or we can face the hard facts and start making plans for winter. 

The hard facts are as follows. There is a good chance of above-average precipitation in the southern tier of the U.S. But there is an even better chance for historically warm temperatures across the West. That’s because El Niño is filling the equatorial Pacific with bathtub-warm water. That heat is almost certain to percolate into the West this winter. 

Flee North

Those of us who have been around for a little while know the drill. When the warm air starts flowing, head to Alberta. Just look at last winter. The U.S. was warm and dry — historically so, in fact — but Lake Louise and Sunshine posted nearly 400 inches of cold smoke over the course of a six-month season. 

You might be thinking, who is this random journalist to tell me what’s what? In that case, let’s take it from Alan Smith, one of the head meteorologists for the ski industry’s leading weather forecasting group, OpenSnow. In his 2026-27 Winter Forecast Preview, Smith states, “one advantage of Canadian Rockies resorts such as Banff Sunshine, Lake Louise and Marmot Basin, relative to more coastal and transitional snow climates further west, is their higher elevation and access to colder air which can make them more resilient to rain concerns during warmer-than-average winters.” He also notes that March is the month most likely to see above-average snowfall this year.

• Related: SkiBig3 Trip Report: Lake Louise, Mt. Norquay, & the Town of Banff, Alberta

The Science Behind the Claims

Ok, so you still have doubts? Perhaps you’ve got a cliché, “Canadian, eh” joke sitting on the tip of your tongue, unsure if it’s still funny or not (it’s not). Or maybe it’s been drilled into your head that El Niño means “good south, bad north.” Well, the last two analog years — that is to say, El Niño years in which the climate setup was similar to this year — have had “average” snowfall at SkiBig3. 

There’s also science behind a warmer winter, meaning more snow in Alberta’s Rockies. Warmer air holds more moisture, which means more precipitation. Ski centers like Tahoe and Whistler are built just above the historical rain-snow line. So more precipitation might mean rain if temperatures are warmer than average. However, because SkiBig3 is so cold, there is a massive buffer for significant warming. A storm could bring temperatures several degrees above historical averages, and the precipitation would still fall as snow. Not many ski resorts in North America can make that claim. And that’s one of the reasons why SkiBig3 had an amazing season last year while most of the West was completely and utterly busted. 

Long-Term Forecasts are Limited

Predicting specific weather conditions has long been a fairly futile endeavor. The reason is simple: so many variables affect a winter season that models can’t even come close to an accurate forecast, especially with our limited input data. We can’t even get it right a week out, let alone several months. 

In fact, the more relevant thing to be aware of is the fact that even a “bad winter” at SkiBig3 is better than a good winter at many other resorts. It’s cold, the skiable terrain is vast, varied, and excellent, and there is plenty to do off the slopes in the town of Banff. 

• Related: Canadian Ski Resorts See First Snow of the 2026-27 Season

What to Expect at SkiBig3 During an “Average” Winter

To be clear, there’s nothing average about an “average” winter here in Alberta. Average means firing on all cylinders for a full half of the year. SkiBig3 opens by early November, with most of the resorts’ terrain and lifts fully up and running by early December — as opposed to some U.S. resorts, several of which are relegated to the one “white ribbon of death” groomer for much of December, or beyond.

Generally, you can expect ample coverage on groomers through the season and good off-piste skiing for a solid four or five months of the year. Once snow falls here, it doesn’t melt, so the base builds through May. Banff Sunshine even reopened for 3 weeks of summer skiing this past June and July due to the insane amount of snow last winter, with over 10 runs and two lifts operating!

Snowfall follows a typical continental regimen. There are typically many snowy days, though the vast majority of days bring a handful of centimeters — or a couple of inches — of light snow. The best conditions arise when you’ve patiently collected several days in a row like this. And that tends to happen quite often. Last year, just under 50% of all days during the season saw fresh snow reported in the previous 24 hours — and 12 of those days saw more than 20 cm (eight inches). December saw 19 days of consecutive snowfall. And, just as you would expect from a cold, continental ski resort, the snow is almost always low-water-content “blower” pow. 

At SkiBig3, Cold Air is Key

Of course, we have to talk about the cold as well. Turns out, cold air is the key to great skiing.

Those massive ice fields just next door to Banff didn’t just appear out of thin air. Even a significantly warmer-than-average winter will feature polar blasts in this region. It’s easy for first-timers to the Canadian Rockies to underestimate the force of this cold. You should expect nighttime temperatures to fall below 0 degrees Fahrenheit (-18 Celsius), even in town. So always come prepared with insulated layers, a buff, as well as hand and foot warmers. But it sure holds up the snow quality – because it stays below freezing for months on end, snow fallen stays light and powdery. That means you really can find stashes days after a storm.  

As if four months of powder skiing weren’t enough, Lake Louise and Sunshine transform into a spring skiing Mecca in April and early May. Relatively warm, sunny days and cold, clear nights ensure lovely corn conditions on the slopes, which still retain ample winter coverage. Some of the best conditions on the mountain occur during this period. 

• Related: SkiBig3’s Endless Winter: Where Spring Still Feels Like Powder Season

SkiBig3’s Flexible Booking Options

Suppose you’re on the cusp of booking a ski trip to the Big3 this winter. Maybe you’re not sure of the conditions? Maybe you’ve heard the aphorism, “the best way to make God laugh is to tell him/her/them your plans.”

Fortunately, SkiBig3 gets all that. That’s why they’ve formulated one of the most unusually flexible booking policies in the sport of skiing. Here’s how it works.

For “Ski and Stay” packages, flexible booking options are available, allowing you to make changes or cancel your trip subject to the applicable terms and conditions. Policies, fees, payment schedules, and cancellation deadlines may vary, so be sure to review the current terms when booking.

If you’re not booking a Ski & Stay package, SkiBig3 allows free changes and cancellations on lift tickets, rentals, and snow-school services until 14 days before arrival. 

SkiBig3 is also offering additional discounts if you book your vacation before September 30. 

SkiBig3 is included on the Ikon Pass, Ikon Base Pass, and Ikon Session Pass. For Ikon passholders, that means three resorts to choose from during a Banff trip, all within the same destination.

• Related: Save Up to 40% on Your 2026-27 Banff Ski Vacation With SkiBig3 Early-Bird Deals

Get More Mileage Out of Your Dollar at SkiBig3

Imagine if one day you could magically exchange your money for more goods and services than the day before. Well, there is a fabled land where you can do just that, and it’s called Canada. 

You probably know the drill by now, but just in case you’ve been living in a cave for the last ten years, the Canadian dollar is affordable relative to the U.S. dollar. You cross the border, and every CAD 1 costs you only USD 0.73 at the time of writing. 

Skiing in Canada is already way more affordable than in the U.S. Throw in that extra discount, and you’ve got yourself a deal.

Banff — A Ski Town With Class

SkiBig3 refers to the three phenomenal ski resorts within a stone’s throw of Banff, one of the world’s most iconic mountain towns. Mt. Norquay is Banff’s backyard, just 10 minutes from town. Sunshine, with 3,400 skiable acres, is 25 minutes away. Lake Louise takes the acreage cake with 4,200 skiable acres, but is a bit further from town – about 45 minutes. Should you choose to stay in Banff, shuttles operate between all the resorts.

Staying in Banff is the opportunity of a lifetime. This is North America’s answer to iconic European mountain towns like Chamonix and Saas Fee. Banff is similar to places like Telluride, Aspen, and Breckenridge in that it was once a frontier town reimagined as a resort. The difference is that Banff costs a fraction of the price of the prestigious Colorado mining towns, with far more dependable snow.