After two dry winters in a row in Tahoe, I think we all have one question in the back of our minds: “Could Tahoe have 3 bad winters in a row?”
The short answer is yes. Yes, because anything is possible, and yes because our historical snowfall graph from Donner Summit, CA shows us that the answer is yes.
7 times since 1879 there have been 3 or more below average winters in a row. We’re hoping that next season won’t make it number 8. (We don’t even wanna talk about the 1920s when there were 7 bad ones in a row…)
Our snow records go back 134 years from 2013 to 1879. In that time, there have been 10 periods with 2 below average winters in a row. In that same time, there have been 7 periods with 3+ below average winters in a row.
In those 134 years, 5.2% of time we had 3 or more below average winters in a row. In those same 134 years, 7.4% of the time we had just 2 below average winters in a row.
The margins are close (7.4% vs 5.2%) and the sample size is relatively small (only 134 years), but we’re looking at a statistical advantage of 2.2%. Are you following me? If not, good.
Today, I spoke with Randall Randall Osterhuber, the lead snow scientist at our Central Sierra Snow Laboratory on Donner Summit, and he set me straight:
“There’s no way we can predict next year based on the previous two years .” – Randall Osterhuber
Randall has used sophisticated computer programs to come up with definitive snowfall/precipitation cycles and the results, when put side by side actual snowfall data, are completely irrelevant.
“There is nothing we can do to predict next year based on historical averages.” – Randall
What is interesting is our historical rain vs snow percentages:
“Our historical averages show 15% of our precipitation comes as rain each year and 85% comes as snow. This year, about 50% came as rain and 50% came as snow. And this is something that has been increasing over time on average. We are getting more rain and less snow each year on average.” – Randall Osterhuber
These numbers are the scariest thing I’ve learned about Tahoe snowfall in a while.
So, we have to ask our question again: “Will Tahoe have 3 bad winters in a row”:
Answer: “Who the hell knows?”
One thing IS clear: it’s happened before…
TWO BELOW AVERAGE WINTERS IN A ROW:
– 1888 & 1889
– 1891 & 1892
– 1912 & 1913
– 1943 & 1944
– 1953 & 1954
– 1963 & 1964
– 1976 & 1977
– 1987 & 1988
– 1996 & 1997
– 2012 & 2013
THREE + BELOW AVERAGE WINTERS IN A ROW:
– 1918 – 1920 (3 in a row)
– 1925 – 1931 (7 in a row OUCH)
– 1939 – 1941 (3 in a row)
– 1959 -1961 (3 in a row)
– 1990 – 1992 (3 in a row)
– 2000 – 2002 (3 in a row)
– 2007 – 2009 (3 in a row)
Sharpy’s right. The long term climate projections for the Sierra are depressing as shit.
Also, Miles, Yuba Pass is off 49, not 80 in your photo taken of the train near Yuba Gap.
Its simply misnamed…should be yuba gap and that is just off 80. Thats old man mt in background!
My bad, changing it now. cool shot, huh?
Definitely.
Gotta start praying to uller early this year find some virgin snow bunnies to sacrifice.
answer: hell yes it’s possible. in fact I expect this to be the new norm, with a few heavy winters somewhere, sometime. go north, or hang around and get a tan, heh. climate change, man. Harder on Polar Bears than humans. In fact, it’s already happened. We’re just so f’ing slow to get it.
Yeah, that last bit about more rain than snow is sobering.
Or go to colorado, this is the coldest winter/spring in the US since ’75.
The polar Bears are doing just fine!!!
yeah, I imagine most Colorado Polar Bears are just chillin’.
Polar Bears in colorado?,,, way cool, must be shooting a Coke commercial
So after all that we still no nothing. 🙂
It is weird how many times there are two bad one in a row.