Climate Accord Drama Unfolding In Marrakech And Beyond

Sergei Poljak |
Paris Accord implementation talks are being held in Marrakech, Morocco Nov. 7 - 18. Photo: Cityhdwallpapers.com
Paris Accord implementation talks are being held in Marrakech, Morocco Nov. 7 – 18. Photo: Cityhdwallpapers.com

Regardless ofย what the upcoming winter has to offer (not much so far),ย a complete reversal of climate change policy in the U.S isย likely the mostย influentialย event of the season and seasons to come.ย The administration-elect, as of Nov. 8th, 2016, has promised repeatedly to “cancel” the Paris Climate Accord, the landmark deal ratified by 109 nations (193 signatories) and effective Nov. 4th, 2016.

As a short introduction, the Paris Climate Accord’s goal is to cutย human carbon emissions byย 40% of 1990 levels by 2030, total carbon neutrality by the end of theย 21st century, and a long-term warming of no more than about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 Celsius).ย While it is certain that eventually humansย will move past fossil fuels if society continues to exist (they are a non-renewable resource), the scientific consensus draws a small window for this goal to be achieved. Theย mainย concern is that a series of positive feedback loopsย will be initiated during any extended periodย above that temperature (vast methane reserves in arctic permafrost melting, sharply warming the atmosphere, causing more warming, etc.)

Permafrost layers in Arctic tundra. Photo: sciencepoles.org
Permafrost layers in Arctic tundra. Photo: sciencepoles.org

The current dramaย is perhaps theย most significant thus far in the pursuit to limit climate change. Economist (not scientist)ย Myron Ebell, recently appointed Director of E.P.A., is one of the most prominent voices against climate change.ย However, while those set to take executive power in January promise to remove the U.S. from the Accord, the reality is that it will not be simple, for several reasons:

  1. Pullingย out risks fraying already tenuous relationships with Europe, China, and theย rest of theย world.ย Despite campaign rhetoric,ย the majority of powerful forces do not condone this sort of situation escalating.
  2. Fossil fuels, particularly coal, are becoming less and less economically attractive compared to renewables.ย The coal industry has not shrunk because of environmental regulations, it’s shrunk because its no longer economically attractiveย in theย age of fracking and gas extraction. This is unlikely to change, and while the administration-elect showers support for both industries, ultimately coal will continue to be phased out. Moreover, solar is becoming increasingly affordable, especially to homeowners and businesses with recent lease to own solar projects.
  3. Pulling the U.S. out of theย Accord will be difficult.ย At a minimum it could take a year, but that would require pulling out of a 1992 parent treaty and all butย destroy America’s credibility. More likely, it would take four.
  4. The majority of Americans (64% in latest Gallup Poll) are worried about climate change.ย Leaders in the legislative branch of government recognize thatย denyingย the issue may further increase resentment among voters.
Coal Power plants like this one are becoming less economically viable. Photo: Huffington Post
Coal Power plants like this one are becoming less economically viable. Photo: Huffington Post

It isย very much possible that the U.S. could remain part of the treaty, and simply do nothing to curbย emissions.ย This may be the most likely scenario, but as we’ve seen the past year, unpredictability is the new black.

Perhaps theย biggest fear is that China and India, the two other largest carbon emitters, will follow suit and also refuse to curb emissions.ย However, China has already sharply criticized the Trump team and stated its intention to fulfill its carbon reduction obligation. David Sandalow of Columbia University explains:

โ€œIf the U.S. withdraws from the Paris Agreement, that would create a strategic opportunity for China. It would gain credibility globally by sticking with itsย climate plans even as the U.S. withdraws, helping the Chinese government advance its objectives on a range of topics.โ€

Scientists project that a temperature rise of 4 degrees celsius is probable by the end of the 21st century if no action is taken to curb emissions.ย Skiing would become economically, and maybe even physically, infeasible in this scenario in all but the highest, coldest resorts. This, however, would be the least of our concerns by then.

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