Weather
On Thursday, October 17, the NOAA updated its long-range seasonal forecasts for next winter, giving snow lovers an early glimpse into what 2024-25 might hold. Here’s what the NOAA winter 2024-25 forecast looks like:
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Based on the outlook discussion, here’s the early winter 2024-25 outlook.
The latest winter weather forecast highlights a 60% chance of a weak La Niña, expected to bring below-normal temperatures to the northern regions and above-normal snowfall in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. In contrast, the southern U.S. will likely experience warmer temperatures and below-normal precipitation, leading to less snow in those areas. This update differs from last month by emphasizing the likelihood of La Niña conditions and the associated impacts on snow and cold, particularly in the northern states.
Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana)
Temperature: Expect cooler-than-normal temperatures from December 2024 through February 2025.
Precipitation: Above-normal precipitation is likely in this region during early winter (November-January), which translates to good snow conditions for ski resorts across Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana.
Southwest and Southern Rockies (California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado)
Temperature: Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast from November 2024 through January 2025.
Precipitation: Drier than normal conditions are expected in the Southwest, including California and Nevada. Ski resorts in Utah and Colorado may also experience less snow than usual this winter.
Central Rockies (Wyoming, Colorado)
Temperature: Above-normal temperatures are anticipated for the central Rockies during the early winter months (November-January).
Precipitation: The precipitation outlook is uncertain; there is no strong indication of wetter or drier conditions for ski areas in Wyoming and Colorado.
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic (New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania)
Temperature: Warmer than normal temperatures are favored throughout the winter months.
Precipitation: There is no strong signal for wetter or drier conditions in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. However, parts of the Great Lakes region may see above-normal precipitation later in the winter (January-March), which could benefit resorts in New York and Vermont.
Alaska
Temperature: Below-normal temperatures are likely for south-central and Southeast mainland Alaska through March 2025.
Precipitation: Western and northern Alaska might see above-normal precipitation early in the winter. However, parts of Southeast mainland Alaska may experience drier than normal conditions.
General Outlook
A weak La Niña event is expected to influence weather patterns this winter. While its effects may be less pronounced than those of stronger events, variability in weather is anticipated.
Here’s the discussion in full from the NOAA, followed by outlook maps for the season:
Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 830 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions remain present, as equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. A La Niña Watch remains in effect, with La Niña favored to emerge during September-November (SON) 2024 (60% chance) and is forecast to persist through January-March (JFM) 2025. Any La Niña event that develops this autumn is favored, however, to be a weak short duration event. The November-January (NDJ) 2024-2025 temperature outlook favors above-normal seasonal mean temperatures for most of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) from the Southwest eastward to include most of the central U.S. and all of the eastern CONUS. The largest probabilities (greater than 60 percent) of above normal temperatures are forecast for parts of the Southwest. There also is an enhanced likelihood of above-normal temperatures for northern Alaska. Below-normal temperatures are most likely for much of southern Alaska. The NDJ 2024-2025 precipitation outlook depicts enhanced probabilities of below-normal seasonal total precipitation amounts along most of the southern tier of the CONUS and for parts of southeast Mainland Alaska and Alaska Panhandle. The greatest odds of below-normal precipitation (greater than 50 percent) are forecast for parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains. Slight tilts toward above-normal precipitation is depicted for parts of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, central Great Lakes, and western and northern Alaska. Equal chances (EC) are forecast for areas where probabilities for each category of seasonal mean temperatures and seasonal total precipitation amounts are expected to be similar to climatological probabilities. BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS Note: For Graphical Displays of the Forecast Tools Discussed Below See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ENSO-neutral continued through early October 2024, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the equatorial Pacific Ocean as a whole. The equatorial central Pacific SSTs, however, have cooled recently and negative anomalies of greater than -0.5 degrees C for the equatorial region from 165 W to 125 W are evident. In fact, the latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value is now -0.5 degrees C. Below-average subsurface ocean temperatures remain in place with cooler than normal conditions from approximately 160 W to 90 W to a depth of about 150 m. Low-level wind anomalies are easterly over the east-central equatorial Pacific, and upper-level wind anomalies are westerly over the eastern Pacific. Convection has been near average over Indonesia and slightly suppressed over the Date Line. Then MJO has been active during September into October and aided a trade wind surge across the central Pacific in early September. The MJO is forecast to remain active for at least the rest of October and another trade wind surge supporting cooling of SSTs in the central Pacific is possible in late October. SSTs at higher latitudes remain warmer than normal for most areas of the mid-Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. Enhanced upwelling along the U.S. West Coast has allowed negative SST anomalies to develop in parts of this region and below-normal ocean surface temperatures are evident in parts of the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea. Drought conditions have rapidly expanded across much of the CONUS during late summer and early autumn especially for areas in the central U.S. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS Taken collectively, statistical and dynamical model forecast guidance of the Niño3.4 index favor the development of a weak and most likely short duration La Niña event. Some statistical model forecasts do favor a continuation of ENSO-neutral into and through winter 2024-2025. Dynamical model guidance predictions tend to support weak La Niña conditions to develop, including the majority of participant models from the NMME and C3S forecast suites. Most recent observations and the forecast guidance noted above favor La Niña to emerge during SON (60% chance) and is expected to persist through JFM 2025. PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS The development of potential La Niña conditions in the atmosphere-ocean system in the Pacific contributed to the outlooks from NDJ 2024-2025 through FMA 2025. Although typical La Niña impacts are less likely to occur during a weak event (currently favored), La Niña still tilts the odds in the outlook forecast probabilities. Coastal SSTs and constructed analogue forecasts keyed to current soil moisture anomalies are utilized in preparation of the outlooks at early leads. Dynamical model guidance from the NMME and C3S prediction suites (first 5 and 3 leads respectively), statistical forecast tools, long-term temperature and precipitation trends , and an objective, historical skill weighted combination of much of the above guidance strongly contributed to the final outlooks. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - NDJ 2024 TO NDJ 2025 TEMPERATURE The NDJ 2024-2025 temperature outlook favors above-normal seasonal mean temperatures for much of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) to include the Southwest, central Rockies, the central and Southern Plains, Southeast, Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Highest odds for warmer than normal conditions is forecast for the Southwest and southern Plains. The temperature outlook for this season is primarily based on dynamical model guidance from the NMME and C3S prediction suites and long term positive temperature trends across much of the country. Expectations for the development of La Niña conditions contributed to the temperature outlooks and their evolution from DJF 2024-2025 through FMA 2025. Even though the La Niña event is favored to be a weak and shorter duration event at this time, typical winter season impacts influence the outlook during these seasons with below-normal temperatures most likely from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the northern Plains beginning in DJF 2024-2025 through FMA 2025 and potentially lingering for parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies in MAM 2025. Enhanced odds for above-normal temperatures forecast in NDJ 2024-2025 gradually decrease in coverage and magnitude across the CONUS through FMA 2025 for areas of the western CONUS, Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast. Some statistical model guidance including the ENSO-OCN forecast tool and composites taken over the 1991-2023 period for combined weak La Niña and ENSO-neutral winter seasons support this outlook evolution. Negative temperature trends for the north-central U.S. - especially centered near the month of February - played a considerable role in the outlooks. The official outlooks deviate significantly in some areas in the north-central CONUS from the majority of the NMME and C3S dynamical model guidance. Given weak ENSO forcing this winter, variability within the winter seasons is most likely to be above-average and greater than last winter. The variance from key subseasonal modes of variability from both the Tropics (e.g., MJO, etc.) and higher latitudes/stratosphere (i.e., AO/NAO, etc.) is likely to dominate the eventual seasonal mean temperature anomalies rather than more persistent periods during the winter. Positive temperature trends in the dynamical model guidance may be overemphasized in the model predictions in these regions resulting in warmer solutions overall for the winter seasons from DJF through FMA 2025 as the observed temperature trends are either neutral or negative in most areas. For Alaska, over these seasons, dynamical model guidance is in overwhelming agreement between models and consistent with typical La Niña related impacts. Below-normal temperatures are most likely for south-central and Southeast mainland Alaska as well as for the Alaska Panhandle through MAM 2025 with the maximum forecast coverage during JFM 2025. Above-normal temperatures are favored for northwest Alaska during this period with the greatest odds during NDJ 2024-2025 due to more open water (below-normal sea ice extent) and anticipated warmer than normal SSTs. Progressing through the spring and summer months of 2025, the outlooks primarily rely on the forecast consolidation of statistical model guidance and long-term temperature trends with high uncertainty in the future evolution of ENSO. Forecast coverage for above-normal temperatures is greatest during the late spring and summer seasons of MJJ and JJA 2025. PRECIPITATION The NDJ 2024-2025 precipitation outlook favors above-normal seasonal total precipitation amounts for portions of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Michigan, and northern and western Alaska. Drier-than-normal conditions are most likely for the southern tier of the U.S. with the highest odds forecast for the Southwest and Southern Plains. For Southeast Mainland Alaska and the northern Alaska Panhandle, a slight tilt toward drier than normal conditions is forecast through MAM 2025. As noted above, the favored development of La Niña conditions approaching the winter and consistent dynamical model forecast guidance is the basis for the outlook. Moving through the FMA 2025 season, the enhanced likelihood of above-normal precipitation in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions expands in coverage and probabilities increase maximizing in the southern Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley area in JFM 2025. Positive precipitation trends also contribute strongly to these outlooks for some areas in the Midwest and Great Lakes. Favored below-normal precipitation across the south through FMA 2025 remains generally consistent with the forecast coverage and odds greatest for JFM 2025. The majority of the dynamical model guidance from the NMME and C3S model suites highlight substantially elevated odds for below-normal precipitation for the Far West (i.e., California/Nevada) for the winter seasons through FMA 2025. Given the anticipated generally weak ENSO forcing, this seems overdone, especially since some of the dynamical model guidance can sometimes overemphasize ENSO impacts during weaker events. Given the lack of a clear, reliable ENSO signal after this winter/early spring, longer lead outlooks are primarily based on long term precipitation trends and depict low forecast coverage. The longer lead precipitation outlooks during the warm season generally have low forecast skill. FORECASTER: Jon Gottschalck The Climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following the World Meterological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 complete decades as the climatic reference period. The probability anomalies for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. For a description of of the standard forecast tools - their skill- and the forecast format please see our web page at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools.html (Use Lower Cas e Letters) Information on the formation of skill of the CAS forecasts may be found at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Outlook/outlook.shtm l (use lowercase letters) Notes - These climate outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of their valid period. Within any given valid period observations and short and medium range forecasts should be consulted. This set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuance of the new set next month on Nov 21 2024 1991-2020 base period means were implemented effective with the May 20, 2021 forecast release. $$
“This early forecast from NOAA is exciting for winter sports enthusiasts! The return of La Niña could mean some great conditions for skiing this season. It’s always fascinating to see how these climate patterns influence snowfall and temperatures. I can’t wait to hit the slopes and make the most of it!”