NOAA is forecasting above average temperatures for essentially all the USA all winter. They’re forecasting below average temperatures nowhere…
According to what we see here, you’ll want to be in the Pacific Northwest this winter.
This Outlook Looks Good For Above Average Snow In:
Oregon
Washington
Northern Idaho
Western Montana
This Outlook Looks Calls For Below Average Snow In:
Southern & Central California
Arizona
New Mexico
Colorado
Southern Utah
Equal Chances for Snow In:
Wyoming
Northern Utah
Northern California
Equal Chances” zone meaning they’re forecast to have average winters, which are damn good.
Jamie Blair smashing pow at Squaw Valley, CA in March 2011. The last La Nina in the USA. photo: casey cane
October, November, December Precipitation & Temperature Outlook:
October, November, December precipitation outlook showing above average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest, Idaho, Montana. This outlook shows below average precipitation for Mammoth CA, Arizona, Utah, New Mexico, Colorado, southern Alaska, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana, and the Southeastern Seaboard.October, November, December temperature outlook showing above average temperatures for all of the USA and most of Alaska. This outlook shows below average temperatures no where.
December, January, February Precipitation & Temperature Outlook:
December, January, February precipitation outlook showing above average precipitatoin for the Pacific Northwest, Idaho, Montana, northwest Wyoming, and the Great Lakes Region. This outlook shows below average precipitation for California, Arizona, southern Utah, New Mexico, Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana, and the Southeastern Seaboard.December, January, February temperature outlook showing above average temperatures for nearly all of the USA and most of Alaska. This outlook shows below average temperatures no where.
February, March, April Precipitation & Temperature Outlook:
February, March, April precipitation outlook showing above average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest, the Great Lakes Region, and Ohio River Valley. This outlook shows below average precipitation for California, Arizona, southern Utah, New Mexico, Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana, and the Southeastern Seaboard.sd
9 thoughts on “NOAA’s Official 2016/17 Winter Outlook for the USA:”
The super-sophisticated NOAA model predicted normal rain for here in October 2016, in
Northern CA sierra nevada foothills. And that was just 3 months into the future.
We received an all-time record rainfall in October. Swing and a (HUGE) miss.
Kind a cool logo though – so you got that going for you.
My preiction is after what finally was El Nino after gov predicted one 3 winters in a row now La Nina is the usual, El Nada until March when it transitions to mild La Nina that lasts through Oct 2017 with a very harsh winter that season. This winter will seem harsh since there was none last winter but it will trend like two winters ago more in east. We are out of warm phase 30 year patter so starting cold phase 1950-79 pattern. That will be in full force 1.5 years from now since it works exactly like graph of Solar activity and the global warming people will be proven wrong like global cooling were last time.
It is nature and all is well but no La Nina this winter to come.
Actually..”equal chance” does not mean that the winter will be average. It means there’s an equal chance that the probability of above or below average snowfall is near the same. The green shading means there’s an increased probability of above average snowfall. The brown means an increased chance of below average snowfall. And the white(EC) means it’s too close to call. There;s no amount of data that allows them to make a reliable forecast. Hope this helps!
There is zero historical evidence that La Nina seasons portend below average snowfall ANYWHERE in Colorado. Aspen, Crested Butte and Telluride had record high snowfall during La Nina 2007-08.
Weather
The super-sophisticated NOAA model predicted normal rain for here in October 2016, in
Northern CA sierra nevada foothills. And that was just 3 months into the future.
We received an all-time record rainfall in October. Swing and a (HUGE) miss.
Kind a cool logo though – so you got that going for you.
My preiction is after what finally was El Nino after gov predicted one 3 winters in a row now La Nina is the usual, El Nada until March when it transitions to mild La Nina that lasts through Oct 2017 with a very harsh winter that season. This winter will seem harsh since there was none last winter but it will trend like two winters ago more in east. We are out of warm phase 30 year patter so starting cold phase 1950-79 pattern. That will be in full force 1.5 years from now since it works exactly like graph of Solar activity and the global warming people will be proven wrong like global cooling were last time.
It is nature and all is well but no La Nina this winter to come.
Actually..”equal chance” does not mean that the winter will be average. It means there’s an equal chance that the probability of above or below average snowfall is near the same. The green shading means there’s an increased probability of above average snowfall. The brown means an increased chance of below average snowfall. And the white(EC) means it’s too close to call. There;s no amount of data that allows them to make a reliable forecast. Hope this helps!
Thanks much, Damon! We’ll use this info moving forward. Much appreciated.
EC means flip a coin. Plus NWS is saying I DON’T KNOW,
And La Nina doesn’t mean “poor Tahoe” either. http://bestsnow.net/Neutral_areas.htm
All of the Tahoe areas average normal or slightly above during strong La Nina months.
We should not be counting the La Nina chickens before they hatch. We are still on the El Nino side, though only half as strong as during the winter.
But history along with the subsurface temperatures support the 75% probability estimate for La Nina in winter 2016-17.
There is zero historical evidence that La Nina seasons portend below average snowfall ANYWHERE in Colorado. Aspen, Crested Butte and Telluride had record high snowfall during La Nina 2007-08.
Poor Tahoe.
Poor Tahoe, yet again.