NOAA’s Most Useless Winter Outlook Yet… | Official 2017/18 Winter Outlook for the USA

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NOAA says…

NOAA recently released their official winter outlook for winter 2017/18.

They’re basically just saying “Equal Chances” for the entire USA all winter long which is about the same as saying “we have no idea.”

Don’t get me wrong, NOAA is great.  Really great.  But their long term winter forecasting hasn’t been impressive the past 5 years.  Nobody’s has.  But that doesn’t stop all of us from getting excited about seeing a winter forecast in July and it never will.

NOAA’s 2016/17 Winter Outlook (LEFT) vs. what actually happened (RIGHT). image: noaa, March 22nd 2017

NOAA admits themselves that they didn’t nail their 2016/17 winter outlook in an article they wrote here:  

NOAA’s Winter Outlook 2016/17 | How Did They Do Compared to Reality?

Jamie Blair smashing a turn on KT-22 at Squaw Valley, CA in 2011. photo: casey cane
Jamie Blair getting shacked at Squaw Valley, CA in March 2011 – a La Nina year. photo: casey cane/snowbrains

One of these years, it’d be amazing to see someone get a long range winter forecast right.  That would be something to truly get excited about…  Until then, we’ll have to continue to read NOAA quotes like the one below explaining that they aren’t expecting El Nino (ENSO) nor La Nina this winter leading them to go with “Equal Chances” nearly everywhere.

Here is what NOAA is saying about their very blah 2017/18 winter outlook:

SINCE THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK, THE CHANCES FOR EL NINO DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 
AUTUMN AND WINTER HAVE DECREASED. GIVEN THE LATEST ENSO FORECAST INDICATING A 
GREATER CHANCE OF ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WINTER, THE INCREASED 
CHANCES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN 
Nov/Dec/Jan AND Dec/Jan/Feb 2017-2018 HAVE BEEN REMOVED. PRECIPITATION 
OUTLOOKS FROM JFM THROUGH Feb/Mar/Apr 2018 ARE BASED ON THE SEASONAL 
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION FORECAST AND DECADAL TRENDS. 
- NOAA on July 20th, 2017
Jackson Hole, WY on February 6th, 2017. Skier: Connery Lundin photo: snowbrains

This Outlook Calls for Equal Chances for Snow In:

  • Everywhere

“Equal Chances” basically means “I Don’t Know” in weather terms.  

“In regions where the forecasters have no forecast tools which favor the chance of either Above Average or Below Average, the chance of these two categories is defined to be 33.33% each, and the region is labeled “EC”, which stands for equal chances.” – NOAA

This Outlook Calls For Above Average Snow In:

  • Alaska

This Outlook Calls For Below Average Snow In:

  • Nowhere

This Outlook Calls For Below Average Temperatures In:

  • Nowhere

This Outlook Calls For Above Average Temperatures In:

  • Everywhere
Miles Clark getting nipple deep at Brighton, UT on December 18th, 2016. image: court leve

***

November, December, January Precipitation & Temperature Outlook:

NOAA’s precipitation outlook for Nov, Dec, Jan forecast above average precip in AK and nowhere else in snow country. image: noaa
NOAA’s temperature outlook for Nov, Dec, Jan forecast above average temps for every square inch of the USA. image: noaa

***

December, January, February Precipitation & Temperature Outlook:

NOAA’s precipitation outlook for Dec, Jan, Feb forecasts above average precip in AK and nowhere else in snow country. image: noaa
NOAA’s temperature outlook for Dec, Jan, Feb showing above average temps for nearlythe entire USA. image: noaa

***

February, March, April Precipitation & Temperature Outlook:

NOAA’s precipitation outlook for Feb, Mar, Apr forecasts above average precip nowhere and below average precip for Arizona and New Mexico. image: noaa
NOAA’s temperature outlook for Feb, Mar, Apr showing above average temps for nearly the entire USA. image: noaa
Posted by WeatherBrains |

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