Brains
We’ve all had those days: The snow report is claiming an epic dump, but on the hill, it skis like only a few inches. What the heck? Is the snow report just a total lie? A publication in the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics decided to have a closer look.
Snow reporting is a challenging process. Things like elevation, wind, and aspect can cause the snow depth to vary significantly from one spot to another. Just because the snow stake is reading 12″ doesn’t mean a foot evenly coats every part of the mountain. Even two snow stakes only a few feet apart can have different measurements. Some resorts, though, have gotten reputations for skewing the numbers regularly. Jonathan Zinman and Eric Zitzewitz from the Dartmouth College Department of Economics dug deeper into the data to see if this was genuinely deceptive advertising.
Zinman and Zitzewitz started their work by estimating resorts were exaggerating snowfall by 12-23% over government data sources. Given that an independent data source may not be capturing the same snowfall as a resort microclimate, they hypothesized that within an individual resort’s reporting, new snow measurements would be greater on the weekends when potential skier traffic and revenue are the highest. They also examined how terrain, resort competition, money-back guarantees, and local population sizes affected reported snowfall.
Resorts compiled snowfall data for the winters from 2004-2005 through 2007-2008. Government snowfall data was captured for the same period using NOAA weather stations and the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS), which provides high-tech snowfall estimates for a given area. To arrive at their conclusions, the two economists dove into some very heavy statistics work (that you can read about on your own).
The data suggest that on an average winter day, resorts report 1.40 inches of new snow versus 1.22 inches recorded by SNODAS or 1.08 inches from NOAA/NOHRSC. This discrepancy is driven by resorts overreporting on big powder days with eight or more inches of new snow. Still, it’s a relatively small difference that could easily be accounted for by a resort microclimate and not deceptive advertising.
The two analyzed snowfall trends over the week to remove this direct comparison between resort and government snow data. While government snowfall data remained relatively flat, resorts reported the most snow on Saturdays, Sundays, and Mondays. On average, resorts reported about 0.5″ of extra snow on the weekends due to rounding up measurements and exaggerating large storms. Half an inch doesn’t sound like much, but they inflated the numbers on only 30% of the sampled days. This means many resorts report accurately while others stretch the truth. A more complex analysis suggests that when resorts exaggerate, it’s by an inch or more. Even though Ullr doesn’t care that you only get to ski on the weekends, resorts have taken notice.
The “weekend effect” was slightly amplified by resorts with more expert terrain and those without money-back guarantees. The data showed that an additional 0.14″ of new snow was likely to be reported at such ski areas. As one would suspect, the price of exaggeration is much higher when you’re backing conditions with a guarantee.
Resorts with dense local populations and nearby competition would seem to have plenty of motive to inflate snowfall totals, but the results of this analysis were inconclusive. The results differed depending on which measure of government snowfall was used (NOAA or SNODAS).
What do you think? Does your local hill over-report, or are you lucky to live near a resort that under-reports? Those quiet 3-5″ days that end up knee-deep are hard to beat.
Reference:
Zinman, Jonathan, and Eric Zitzewitz Wintertime for Deceptive Advertising? (2016) American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 8(1): 177-92.
OHHH NOOOOO Sugar Ski Area in North Carolina must take the championship for gross lying/exageration as to base depth. Today, Jan 4th 2024, the owner reports more base than Colorado, Utah and Cali COMBINED! 75 inches! Look at teir website and all you see is freekin GRASS! So the real problem is newbies right? Spend all that dough, bring the wife and kids and just get launched!
Try calling the office. Staff is trained not to say anythig at all meaningfull.
It’s a scam like I have never witnessed.
Question is….what do we as avid skiers do about it!
Northstar flat out lies.
I don’t see <1" difference being a big motivator in driving resort attendance. Sounds more likely the difference between professional weather-geeks vs resort employees that may not have as precise instruments or training.
Breckenridge is notorious for using the metric side of their ruler to measure snowfall
You call it the kirkwood what !! ? Are you kidding. Shut the phuq up
As a Heavenly patroller we would take measurements ( new snow, total snow and minimum, maximum temps) at four different locations around the mountain. The four snow totals were to be added together and divided by four reaching an average. We caught marketing dividing by THREE!
Stratton does the same thing except they multiply by 4 instead of dividing by 4.
HIlarious
Kirkwood….We call it the Kirkwood 6″….more like 10-12″ in the right spots
Same at Winter Park, CO. They often underreport… if there’s 6″ on the report, we could be skiing 8-10″ on the mountain.
Unlike some CO resorts I could mention who point their snowguns at their snow stakes… 😉
3-5″ at Bridger Bowl is often epic.
Pretty sure Heavenly stake is on the lee side of a cornice at about 10,000ft.