Weather
This forecast was created at 8 a.m. PST on Wednesday, November 20, 2024
This week’s focus shifts west as a major storm system aims at California, where a massive atmospheric river (AR) is primed to stall over the northern part of the state. Precip is slowly making its way inland but hasn’t yet reached Tahoe as of this forecast.
Expect that to change as moisture funnels into the Tahoe region late Wednesday morning, ramping up around midday. This AR will arrive in distinct pulses, with the first wave rolling in Wednesday morning and lasting through Thursday night. Snow levels start manageable at 5,500 feet but will climb to 8,000-8,500 feet by Thursday afternoon. Unfortunately, this means most resorts will see rain by the tail end of the first round. Projected snow totals for mid-mountain elevations from Wednesday morning through Thursday night are below—but remember, a lot of this could get reduced or washed away by rain on the backend, especially at lower elevations. These totals will be very elevation-dependent:
- Palisades Tahoe: 12-20″
- Sugar Bowl: 13-21″
- Kirkwood: 4-9″
- Northstar: 3-9″
- Mt Rose: 4-8″
- Heavenly: 2-5″
Round two arrives Friday morning, delivering steady precip through Saturday night. Snow levels with this wave will be opposite of the first one, starting high and steadily dropping throughout the storm, starting at around 8,000 feet and dropping almost linearly throughout the storm, settling around 5,500 feet by the end. This wave is packing a stronger punch for mid-mountain totals:
- Palisades Tahoe: 16-28″
- Sugar Bowl: 18-30″
- Kirkwood: 16-28″
- Northstar: 10-18″
- Mt Rose: 8-15″
- Heavenly: 6-14″
- Mammoth: 14-20″
A third wave rolls through from Saturday night into Monday morning, but some models indicate lingering precipitation well into next week. Snow levels should stay completely below lake level. It’s still too far out to pin down specific totals, but early model runs are currently indicating the following totals at mid-mountain elevations by Monday morning (but keep in mind precip could last significantly longer; it’s just too early to tell at the moment):
- Palisades/Sugar Bowl/Kirkwood: 8-14″
- Northstar: 6-12″
- Mt Rose/Heavenly: 6-14″
- Mammoth: 8-16″ (Monday morning through Wednesday morning)
