Colorado Could Start Using A New Avalanche Forecasting Method

Luke Guilford | Post Tag for BackcountryBackcountry | Post Tag for AvalancheAvalanche
Slab avalanche
A large slab avalanche crown. Photo Credit: SnowBrains

Accurately forecasting avalanche risk remains a top priority in Colorado. The Colorado General Assemblyโ€™s Joint Budget Committee on Feb. 21 voted in favor of sponsoring a $1 million funding effort to assist the Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) transition from a fixed zone forecasting method to a flexible-zone method.

The current fixed-zone method creates avalanche forecasts for large, pre-determined regions throughout the state. A flexible-zone method divides those same regions into subregions based on day-to-day avalanche conditions on the ground. The flexible-zone method hopes to bring more consistent forecasts to those traversing the backcountry.

Avalanche Forecasting
A typical fixed-zone forecast on the CAIC website: Photo Credit: CAIC

Joint Budget Committee staff member Mitch Burmeister said this on the transition of technology. From VailDaily:

โ€œThere are really large swaths of territory in the individual zones…What is potentially dangerous in one part of the zone might be completely a non-issue in another part, but if you are a consumer of this zone, you go online and you look at it and you say โ€˜this zone is dangerous, I better not go out,โ€™ but you might actually be OK going out โ€” or visa versa.โ€

In addition to switching to a flexible-zone forecasting system, the CAIC is looking to replace outdated IT infrastructure.

Recently Avalanche Canada made the switch to a flexible-zone forecasting system. Avalanche Canada made this comment on its new forecasting system. From Vail Daily:

“While we are covering the same area we always have, the forecast regions are now dynamic, with boundaries that change in response to conditions… Weโ€™ve made these changes to tackle one of our biggest problems with our old system, where conditions would often vary significantly across some of our larger regions.โ€

So far this season, seven people have lost their lives in avalanches in Colorado. The 10-year average for Colorado is six deaths. Along with the avalanche forecast, educating yourself and your crew on avalanche safety is your best bet in having a safe and enjoyable time in the backcountry.


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One thought on “Colorado Could Start Using A New Avalanche Forecasting Method

  1. Itโ€™s real simple, stop treating Colorado backcountry in dec, Jan, Feb, march, likes itโ€™s April! But thatโ€™s not possible with everyone showing up with their stoke off the hook for the latest American craze. Thanks amga and avalanche schools! Ugh.

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