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Olympics
With Milan and Cortina d’Ampezzo, Italy, poised to host the 2026 Olympic Games amid global climate change concerns, researchers are investigating the longevity of potential hosts for the Winter Games. Under the direction of the International Olympic Committee (IOC), the University of Waterloo’s professor, Daniel Scott, in conjunction with the University of Innsbruck examined records from 93 of the previous Winter Games holders.
Each location ran a probability test for two conditions necessary to host a winter sports competition. The probability of daily minimum temperatures being below freezing at 0°C (32°F) so that snow bases can be self-maintained, and the probability of a snow base depth of at least 30 cm base (11.8″). The IOC also suggested running the projections with a 50 cm base to account for advancements made in man-made snow production. If both conditions reached a 90% probability, the location was deemed climatically viable, if one or both of the conditions were above the 75% threshold, it was considered marginally viable, and if neither condition reached 75%, it was deemed unreliable for hosting the winter games in future years.
The study ran its projections against different climate change scenarios. A big factor in their tests is the effectiveness of the Paris Climate Agreement (PCA). They were able to source models from the PCA that ran tests on different emission rates to determine future temperatures subjected to climate change to determine the reliability of these 93 locations.
Using the more likely scenario of a low to mid emission levels projection, the researchers used 2011-2040, 2050, and 2080 as their benchmark years. The 2011-2040 model showed that of the 93 areas examined, there was a 61%-71% reliability rate. 2050 drops to 48%-59%, and 2080 slightly dropping to 49%-58%. Understandably, these rates drop even further when considered under a high emissions projection and another marginal drop if the models were run against a 50cm base.
The study also gives us data about which regions would have the most reliable potential hosts for the Winter Games. Western Europe and the Southern Hemisphere showed the least amount of reliability while North America has more potential for hosting but under high emission rates, there is still a loss in reliable hosts. Asia showed a strong resilience and even the 2080 model showed only a few locations becoming fully unreliable.
Studies like this heavily affect how the Olympics will plan on choosing where future events are to be held. Currently, the next three projected locations can maintain a below-freezing temperature and a deep enough snow base. The French Alps, the Italian Alps, and Utah’s Wasatch Back are all reliable locations for winter sports to continue. The IOC and organizers like the International Ski and Snowboard Federations (FIS) will be taking in climatic projections as a key factor in deciding future hosts for their winter sports competitions.
The future of the Olympics is still foggy. Based on the studies it looks like there may be more selection of Asian locations for future games, but on the other hand Europe, having a stronger market for snow sports, also has more access to facility infrastructure, whereas Asian locations may have to invest and build up their industry further to support future games. Snowmaking is also becoming more efficient and advanced in making snow production more feasible in places that were previously less adapted to snowy conditions. Future climate policies will also have a major effect on the viability of potential Olympic hosts. The future is unknown, but studies like this can give us the benefit of some foresight so we can plan accordingly.
