Weather
NOAA has issue their long range forecast for the month of November in the USA. The news isn’t too exciting as they are aren’t forecasting below average temperatures nor above average precipitation ANYWHERE. Boo.
NOAA’s November temperature forecast is showing near average temperatures for most of the USA except for the American Southwest and Texas which are forecasted to see above average temperatures.
NOAA’s November precipitation forecast is showing near average precipitation for most of the USA except for Western Texas and New Mexico which are forecast to see below average precipitation.
For a detailed account of what NOAA is expecting in November 2013 in the USA please read the following NOAA statement.
NOAA’s 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOVEMBER 2013:
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOVEMBER 2013 RECENT OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES ARE CLOSE TO ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES NEAR THE EQUATOR CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC WHILE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES PREVAIL NEAR THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE PACIFIC ARE NEAR LONG TERM AVERAGES WHILE ANOMALOUS WESTERLY WINDS WERE OBSERVED AT UPPER LEVELS. LARGE SCALE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF INDONESIA AND THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED, WHILE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC REMAINS SUPPRESSED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT SST'S IN THE ENSO SENSITIVE REGIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, SUGGESTING THAT THE ENSO STATE WILL REMAIN NEUTRAL IN NOVEMBER, 2013. THERE ARE ONLY VERY WEAK INDICATIONS FOR CLIMATIC ANOMALIES FOR THIS NOVEMBER. THE HISTORICAL SKILL OF TOOLS IS QUITE LOW IN THE LATE FALL, ESPECIALLY SO DURING ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. THE STATE OF SOIL MOISTURE HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES OR PRECIPITATION WHEN SUN ANGLES ARE LOW, AND HENCE DOES NOT PLAY A ROLE IN THIS FORECAST. THIS FORECAST IS PRIMARILY BASED ON PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FROM THE NMME AND IMME WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS TO LONG TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THE MJO IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE WITH THE CONVECTIVE PHASE APPROACHING THE AMERICAS AS OF MID-OCTOBER. THE EVOLUTION OF THE MJO INTO AND DURING NOVEMBER AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LATITUDE IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY UNCLEAR. THE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES ELEVATED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS, PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND TEXAS. THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG CLIMATE MODELS AND STATISTICAL TOOLS FOR THIS SIGNAL. TRENDS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND ALSO NEAR THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER 2013 INDICATES ELEVATED CHANCES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN TEXAS, PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS, AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THERE ARE NO CONSISTENT INDICATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE IN THE CONUS OR ALASKA. THE MAIN FACTORS WHICH USUALLY INFLUENCE THE MONTHLY CLIMATE OUTLOOK INCLUDE: 1) EL NINO AND LA NINA - WHICH COMPRISE ENSO. IMPACTS OF THESE EVENTS ARE SUMMARIZED BY SEPARATING 3-MONTH OBSERVATIONS FROM THREE OR MORE DECADES INTO EL NINO, NEUTRAL AND LA NINA SETS, AVERAGING EACH SEPARATELY, AND THEN COMPUTING ANOMALIES. THESE ARE CALLED "COMPOSITES" AND USED AT TIMES TO SUBJECTIVELY MODIFY THE FORECAST. 2) TRENDS - APPROXIMATED BY THE OCN TOOL AS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT 15-YEAR MEAN OF TEMPERATURE OR OF PRECIPITATION FOR A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR AND THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD (CURRENTLY 1981-2010). 3) THE TROPICAL 30-60 DAY OSCILLATION - CALLED THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) - AFFECTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY WITHIN SEASONS. 4) THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO), THE SIMILAR NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO), AND THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) PATTERNS - WHICH AFFECT THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERN ESPECIALLY DURING BOREAL WINTER AND ARE GENERALLY CONSIDERED TO HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY. 5) THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) - AN ENSO-LIKE PATTERN OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AFFECTING THE TROPICS AND THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICAN REGIONS, BUT WHICH VARIES ON A MUCH LONGER TIME-SCALE THAN ENSO. 6) PERSISTENTLY DRY OR WET SOILS IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER AND SNOW AND ICE COVER ANOMALIES IN THE WINTER. THESE FACTORS TEND TO PERSIST FOR LONG PERIODS AND ACT AS A KIND OF MEMORY IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM. 7) STATISTICAL FORECAST MODELS - CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), SCREENING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (SMLR), CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA), AND ENSEMBLE CCA (ECCA). 8) DYNAMICAL FORECAST MODELS - INCLUDING THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM VERSION 2 (CFS) AND FOR THE ZERO-LEAD UPDATE FORECASTS THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (GEFS). AN EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST SYSTEM, THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME), COMPRISED OF SEVERAL DYNAMICAL MODELS IS ALSO USED. FORECASTER: DAVID UNGER THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3 COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
