Weather
The NOAA this weekend updated its temperature and precipitation outlooks for October 2023. As the month that sees the first resorts in North America start to turn lifts, we’re hoping for cold and snowy. Is that what we’ll get?
The first half of the month will see cooler and drier than normal conditions across most of the west, followed by warmer and wetter conditions in the second half.
The NOAA’s discussion is below:
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR OCTOBER 2023
The first 1-2 weeks of the month look to see generally progressive flow with transient troughing impacting the CONUS from the western U.S at the start of the month to the eastern seaboard during the second week. Below-normal temperatures are favored during these periods in these regional areas, but are likely to have generally minor impact on the overall monthly average anomalous temperature. Nevertheless, forecast probabilities for above-normal temperatures are reduced from the mid-month outlook for areas in the central and southern Rockies, Southwest, southern Plains and southeast CONUS.
The greatest odds for above-normal temperatures are now primarily centered over the northern Plains. Dynamical model guidance for the Week 3-4 period is generally in good agreement for elevated odds of above-normal temperatures for much of the forecast domain supporting an outlook primarily of favored above-normal temperatures, tempered by typical high uncertainty during the month of October. Only minor changes to the Alaska forecast are made in the update.
The forecast pattern evolution noted above during the first half of October primarily drove the forecast changes in the October precipitation outlook update from mid-month. Troughing and anomalous meridional flow during early October favors below-normal precipitation for much of the eastern U.S. from the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast southward to the Ohio Valley and Southeast. A dry start to the month in the Pacific Northwest is tempered by the potential for eastward extension of the Pacific Jet and storminess impacting the Pacific Northwest beginning the second week of October. Below-normal precipitation remains favored for parts of the far Pacific Northwest from the initial outlook due to high climatological precipitation amounts in coastal areas during October.
Elevated odds for above-normal precipitation remains forecast for much of the western CONUS, but is also extended northward at low odds to parts of the northern Plains. The highest probabilities for above-normal monthly precipitation amounts is highlighted for Texas (anticipated heavy rainfall during the first week of October) and for parts of the interior west – also for short-term favored precipitation. Only minor changes are made to the forecast for Alaska, with above-normal precipitation now favored for more of the state.
