NOAA just released their official outlook for the month of May in the USA yesterday. They continue to follow an El Nino influenced pattern of above average precipitation in the southern half of the USA and above average temperatures in the northern half of the USA.
As of right now the places with the most snowfall this season in North America are all on the West Coast:
- Alyeska, AK = 824″ (closed for season)
- Mt. Baker, WA = 619″
- Alpental, WA = 610″ (as of April 5th)
- Sugar Bowl, CA = 557″
- Timberline Lodge, OR = 525″
This May Outlook Looks Good for:
- CA, NV, UT, WY, CO, WY, AZ, NM & southern ID. The only issue is going to be snow levels, but that isn’t abnormal, especially now that it’s Spring. CO & NM have above average snowfall forecast and below average temperatures forecast which could be great.
This May Outlook Looks Bad for:
- WA, northern OR, MT, & northern ID where below average precipitation is forecast along with above average temperatures. That said, Baker in WA continues to get dumped on and has the 2nd most snow in North America and the 2nd deepest snowpack in North America. East Coast ski country has above average temps forecast along with equal chances for precipitation for most ski areas.
Above Average Precipitation is Forecast in April for:
- Southern Idaho
- New Mexico
Below Average Precipitation is Forecast in April for:
- Northern Oregon
- Northern Idaho
FULL MAY BREAKDOWN FROM NOAA:
ROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830 AM EDT THU APR 21 2016 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAY 2016 THE MAY 2016 OUTLOOK IS CONSTRUCTED BASED ON THE LOW-FREQUENCY CLIMATE SIGNALS MANIFEST IN THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF FORECAST PROBABILITIES, AND SHORTER TERM OUTLOOKS ARE CONSULTED TO REFINE THE FORECAST. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COHERENT MJO ACTIVITY TO INFLUENCE THE OUTLOOK; THE MJO'S INFLUENCE IS DIMINISHED IN THE WARM SEASON, AND PLAYS NO ROLE HERE IN INFORMING THE MONTHLY FORECAST. SOIL MOISTURE, HOWEVER, IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT, AS INCREASING INCIDENT SOLAR RADIATION ALLOWS IT TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE ON LOCAL TEMPERATURES. THE CALIBRATED NMME TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES INDICATE A FAIRLY WEAK TILT TOWARD WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, ALASKA, AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS. A NOTABLE WEAKNESS IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH LAGGED ENSO REGRESSIONS (USING LATE WINTER NINO 3.4 VALUES), OBJECTIVE COMPOSITE ANALOGS BASED ON THE RECENTLY OBSERVED SSTS IN THE TROPICAL AND NORTHERN PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC BASINS, AS WELL AS STATISTICALLY DERIVED LOCAL SOIL MOISTURE IMPACTS. THE SECULAR TREND EXPLAINS LESS VARIANCE ON MONTHLY TIMESCALES THAN ON SEASONAL TIMESCALES, BUT GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN, NORTHERN, AND EASTERN CONUS, BASED ON THE ABOVE FACTORS. THE LOWEST PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FORMER IS DUE TO HIGHER-FREQUENCY PATTERNS THAT FAVOR ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW INTO EARLY MAY FOR THAT REGION, WHILE THE LATTER IS DUE TO TRENDS AND SOIL MOISTURE TOOLS. THE LATEST CFS FORECASTS, WEEK 3/4 GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE CFS AND ECMWF, SOIL MOISTURE CONSIDERATIONS, AND LAGGED ENSO REGRESSIONS FAVOR ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK AS WELL. MODEST PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE DEPICTED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CONUS, EXTENDING WESTWARD TO PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN.