NOAA June ENSO Update: Winter El Niño Unlikely, But Not Ruled Out This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Emily Becker After several months of hovering above average, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have dropped rapidly in recent weeks. The current CPC/IRI ENSO forecast estimates about a 60% chance that ENSO-neutral conditions will remain through the summer. Chances for the fall and winter are […] Weather WeatherBrains | June 12, 2020 0 Comments
NOAA May ENSO Update: Increasing Odds of La Niña Next Winter With Low Chances for El Niño This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Emily Becker ENSO-neutral conditions continue and are expected to remain through the fall. Let’s hit the road (virtually) and take a trip around El Niño/Southern Oscillation land! Who needs Carhenge when you have the Walker circulation? Related: THIS Is What El Nino Does To The USA: Buckle […] Weather WeatherBrains | May 16, 2020 0 Comments
April 2020 El Niño Climate Update This month’s ENSO Climate Update is provided by Climate.gov and written by Michelle L’Heureux on April 9, 2020. It’s a new month, but it seems like an entirely different world as we peer at the tropical Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures remained warmer than average, but the tropical atmosphere shifted away from its El Niño-ish appearance during February. The lack of coupling between […] Weather WeatherBrains | April 9, 2020 0 Comments
NOAA: Seeing Red Across The North Pacific Ocean Written by Michelle L’Heureux on Climate.gov The Pacific Ocean is throwing a bit of a temper tantrum these days, but it’s not where you think it might be. Often we focus on the tropical Pacific Ocean because it’s where ENSO takes center stage, but currently, temperature departures across the Tropics are pretty blah. Instead, for the past few months, it’s the North Pacific Ocean […] Weather WeatherBrains | October 25, 2019 0 Comments
NOAA: October 2019 ENSO Update: Scary Stuff as 85% Chance of Neutral El Niño/La Niña Winter This post first appeared on the Climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Emily Becker There’s about an 85% chance the tropical Pacific will remain ENSO-neutral through the fall, and a 55-60% chance of continued neutral through the spring. We’ll talk about the current conditions and check in on the Atlantic hurricane season. A Nightmare on ENSO Street But wait, you say—Niño3.4 […] SnowBrains | October 11, 2019 0 Comments
Upcoming Winter’s ‘Neutral’ ENSO Conditions Might be Bad News for Colorado Mountains The NOAA informed us last week that it expects winter 2019/20 to be ‘neutral’ with regards to El Niño and La Niña, which might be bad news for Colorado mountains, says Colorado State Climatologist Russ Schumacher. Related: NOAA: September 2019 ENSO Update: 60% Chance of an El Niño/La Niña Neutral Winter Of course, there are many factors that can influence […] Weather WeatherBrains | September 16, 2019 0 Comments
NOAA: September 2019 ENSO Update: 60% Chance of an El Niño/La Niña Neutral Winter Brought to you by the NOAA ENSO Blog / Written by Emily Becker El Niño 2019 is a thing of the past, and neutral conditions reign, as my brilliant blog brother Nat covered last month. Thanks, Nat! So where do we go from here? Forecasters estimate a 75% probability that we’ll hang out in neutral through the fall, with a […] Weather WeatherBrains | September 12, 2019 0 Comments
NOAA: May 2018 Update – As We Say Goodbye to this Year’s La Niña, What Can We Look Forward to this Upcoming Winter? May 2018 ENSO update: Thar she goes Author: Emily Becker It’s time to bid adieu to La Niña, as the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific returned to neutral conditions in April. That is, within 0.5°C of the long-term average. The temperature of the water below the surface remained above-average, as the large area of warmer-than-average subsurface waters continued […] Weather WeatherBrains | May 16, 2018 0 Comments
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