Weather
NOAA has just released their outlook for the month of November 2014 in the USA. They’re sticking with the El Nino pattern of wetter than average in the south and drier than average in the north. Northern California and many zones in the middle are in the “Equal Chances” area. This means there is no skew towards neither a wetter nor drier than average winter just yet.
NOAA is forecasting above average precipitation in Southeast Alaska, Arizona, Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma. NOAA is forecasting below average precipitation in the Great Lakes Region.
NOAA is showing above average temperatures for all the West Coast, the Northern USA, all the East Coast, and all of Alaska.
FULL NOAA NOVEMBER FORECAST:
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EDT THURSDAY OCT 16 2014 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOVEMBER 2014 THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS AS OF EARLY OCTOBER, 2014. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ANOMALIES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION OF THE PACIFIC ARE CURRENTLY AROUND +0.4 C, WHICH IS JUST BELOW THE SST ANOMALIES USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH EL NINO. CONVECTION AND WIND ANOMALIES NEAR THE EQUATOR OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ARE NEAR LONG TERM AVERAGES, SUPPORTING ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. ON THE OTHER HAND, SSTS NEAR THE EQUATOR IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND ALONG THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST CONTINUE TO BE AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SOME LOCALIZED ANOMALIES OF OVER +1.0 C. THESE OBSERVATIONS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF EL NINO CONDITIONS. BOTH STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY PREDICT THAT SST ANOMALIES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION WILL INCREASE TO LEVELS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK EL NINO EVENTS. THE OBSERVATIONS HAVE LAGGED BEHIND THE PREDICTIONS OF ABOVE NORMAL NINO 3.4 SSTS FOR THE PAST FEW MONTHS, SO IN SPITE OF GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR +0.9 C IN THE NDJ 2014/15 MEAN, ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER ARE EXPECTED REFLECT AT BEST WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS. THE SST'S ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA ARE SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE NORMAL, AND THIS, TOGETHER WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE EMERGENCE OF WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER, MAY INCREASE CHANCES OF EL NINO-LIKE ANOMALY PATTERNS IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE CONUS. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER, 2014 CALLS FOR ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS, THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE STATE OF ALASKA. THERE IS A BROAD CONSENSUS AMONG CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS PART OF THE NMME FOR THIS FORECAST. THE CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS HIGHER IN COASTAL AREAS OF THE WEST AND COASTAL ALASKA DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL SSTS THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN PACIFIC, AND THE BERING SEA. THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ENHANCED IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, TEXAS, PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS SIGNAL IS STRONGLY FAVORED BY THE NMME, AND IS ALSO INDICATED IN EL NINO COMPOSITES. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES IN VIEW OF CONSISTENT SIGNALS FROM THE CFSV2. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA DUE TO SUPPORT FROM THE CFSV2 AND IMME. IN AREAS WHERE CLIMATE SIGNALS ARE WEAK SUCH THAT THE LIKELIHOODS OF MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES OR MONTHLY ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) IS INDICATED. THE MAIN FACTORS THAT USUALLY INFLUENCE THE MONTHLY CLIMATE OUTLOOK INCLUDE: 1) EL NINO AND LA NINA - WHICH COMPRISE ENSO. IMPACTS OF THESE EVENTS ARE SUMMARIZED BY SEPARATING 3-MONTH OBSERVATIONS FROM THREE OR MORE DECADES INTO EL NINO, NEUTRAL AND LA NINA SETS, AVERAGING EACH SEPARATELY, AND THEN COMPUTING ANOMALIES. THESE ARE CALLED "COMPOSITES" AND USED AT TIMES TO SUBJECTIVELY MODIFY THE FORECAST. 2) TRENDS - APPROXIMATED BY THE OCN TOOL AS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT 10-YEAR MEAN OF TEMPERATURE OR 15-YEAR MEAN OF PRECIPITATION FOR A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR AND THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD (CURRENTLY 1981-2010). 3) THE TROPICAL 30-60 DAY OSCILLATION - CALLED THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) - AFFECTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY WITHIN SEASONS. 4) THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO), THE SIMILAR NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO), AND THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) PATTERNS - WHICH AFFECT THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERN ESPECIALLY DURING BOREAL WINTER AND ARE GENERALLY CONSIDERED TO HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY. 5) THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) - AN ENSO-LIKE PATTERN OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AFFECTING THE TROPICS AND THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICAN REGIONS, BUT WHICH VARIES ON A MUCH LONGER TIME-SCALE THAN ENSO. 6) PERSISTENTLY DRY OR WET SOILS IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER AND SNOW AND ICE COVER ANOMALIES IN THE WINTER. THESE FACTORS TEND TO PERSIST FOR LONG PERIODS AND ACT AS A KIND OF MEMORY IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM. 7) STATISTICAL FORECAST MODELS - CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), SCREENING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (SMLR), CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA), AND ENSEMBLE CCA (ECCA). 8) DYNAMICAL FORECAST MODELS - INCLUDING THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM VERSION 2 (CFS) AND FOR THE ZERO-LEAD UPDATE FORECASTS THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (GEFS). AN EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST SYSTEM, THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME), COMPRISED OF SEVERAL DYNAMICAL MODELS IS ALSO USED.
