NOAA: 70% Chance of an El Niño this Winter | How Forecasters Look to the Pacific to Predict This Look South, ENSO Forecasters! Author: Jason Furtado This is a guest post by Prof. Jason C. Furtado (@wxjay) of the University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology. His research group focuses on large-scale climate dynamics and applying that knowledge to sub-seasonal-to-seasonal forecasting, testing and evaluating operational and climate models, and future climate change. In case you haven’t heard, there is now […] Weather WeatherBrains | July 31, 2018 0 Comments
NOAA July 2018 ENSO Update: Chance of an El Niño Winter? Currently About 70% July 2018 ENSO Update: Dog days Author: Emily Becker The chance that El Niño conditions will be in place across the tropical Pacific by the fall is about 65%, and close to 70% by the winter, continuing the El Niño Watch from last month. Here in the U.S., with sultry weather from coast to coast, it’s hard to think about […] Weather WeatherBrains | July 13, 2018 0 Comments
Official NOAA El Nino Update: El Nino WATCH Issued | 65% Chance of El Nino for Winter 2018/19 June 2018 ENSO Update: El Niño Watch! by Emily Becker/NOAA June 14, 2018 Well, well, well… what have we here? Favorable conditions for El Niño to develop? The June ENSO forecast estimates a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the late summer or early autumn, and an approximately 65% chance of El Niño conditions in the winter, so forecasters have instituted an El […] Weather WeatherBrains | June 14, 2018 0 Comments
NOAA: How El Niño and La Niña Affect The Winter Jet Stream and U.S. Climate NOAA: How El Niño and La Niña Affect The Winter Jet Stream and U.S. Climate By: Rebecca Lindsey The arrival of El Niño or La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean triggers a cascade of changes in tropical rainfall and wind patterns that echo around the globe. For the United States, the most significant impact is a shift in the path of the mid-latitude […] Weather Guest Author | February 16, 2018 0 Comments
Official NOAA El Nino Update: Extreme Neutral! August 2017 ENSO update: Extreme neutral! by Michelle L’Heureux/NOAA August 10, 2017 Now that it’s summer in the Northern Hemisphere, we’re more firmly on the other side of the infamous spring barrier. So, forecasters have growing confidence that this coming winter in the Northern Hemisphere will most likely be a continuation of “ENSO-Neutral,” and dominated by near average temperatures across the Pacific […] Weather Guest Author | August 10, 2017 0 Comments
NOAA’s Official El Nino Update: 35-45% Chance of El Nino This Winter July 2017 ENSO update: Holding steady by Nat Johnson/NOAA July 13, 2017 Editor’s Note: Welcome to Dr. Nat Johnson, our newest ENSO blogger! Nat is an associate research scholar who is affiliated with Princeton University and NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. He has an extensive research record studying large-scale climate dynamics, with a special focus on predictability of subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (hello ENSO!). We’re excited to have him on our team. The latest […] Weather WeatherBrains | July 21, 2017 0 Comments
Official NOAA El Nino 2017 Update: No More El Nino Forecast for 2017… June 2017 ENSO update: pancake breakfast Author: Emily Becker/NOAA June 8, 2017 A change is afoot! After months of suggesting an elevated chance for El Niño to develop, the CPC/IRI forecast has flattened out, and neutral conditions are expected (50-55% chance) to continue through the fall. A recipe for neutral In fact, the Nino3.4 region (a key ENSO monitoring area in […] Weather WeatherBrains | June 9, 2017 0 Comments
NOAA: What’s Going On With This Year’s “Coastal El Nino”? ENSO forecasters in offices getting coffee Author: Michelle L’Heureux/NOAA May 24, 2017 There are many excellent ENSO forecasters around the world who are responsible for providing assessments on the state of El Niño and La Niña for their respective governments. One of my favorite international colleagues is Dr. Ken Takahashi (Instituto Geofísico del Perú) who coordinated the ENSO team in […] Weather WeatherBrains | June 1, 2017 0 Comments