NOAA El Nino Update from Today: 67% Chance of El Nino This Fall Today, NOAA released their latest El Nino update. Here is the summary of this latest report: Most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). The consensus of forecasters indicates a 2-in-3 chance of El Niño during the November 2014 – January 2015 season. This El Niño will likely remain weak (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 0.9°C) throughout its duration. In summary, El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome). – NOAA […] Weather SnowBrains | October 9, 2014 1 Comment
NOAA Video: El Nino ≠ Above Average Precipitation for NorCal | We Call B.S. We’ll admit it. We’ve been hyping up El Nino for California. 1982/83 was the wettest year on record in California and it was a strong El Nino year. 1997/98 was a our last strong El Nino and it was a huge year in Tahoe. NOAA wants us to understand that just because it’s El Nino, doesn’t mean that we’ll get above average precipitation in Northern California. They go to great lengths to display this knowledge. But, we know they’re wrong. They claim to have 64 El Nino cycles on record and from that data set, they’ve created this downer video for you to get depressed about.[…] Weather SnowBrains | June 9, 2014 3 Comments
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