NOAA ENSO September 2024 Update: 80% Chance of La Niña From November to January This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO Blog and was written by Emily Becker. The tropical Pacific is still in neutral, but nature continues giving us signs that La Niña is on the way, and our La Niña Watch remains. Forecasters estimate a 71% chance that La Niña will emerge during September–November and expect it will persist through the […] Weather WeatherBrains | September 23, 2024 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Update August 2024: 74% Chance of La Niña Persisting Through Winter This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Tom Di Liberto You’ll have to excuse this ENSO Blogger for a minute while I drink some sweet tea on the porch and lament about all the heat and humidity, “Woof, it’s hot!” Things truly seem to move slower during the dog days of summer in late […] Weather Guest Author | August 11, 2024 0 Comments
NASA: El Niño Exits After heating up the eastern Pacific Ocean for about a year, El Niño finally died out in May 2024. The natural climate phenomenon contributed to many months of record-high ocean temperatures, precipitation extremes in Africa, low ice cover on the Great Lakes, and severe drought in the Amazon and Central America. As of July 2024, the eastern Pacific was in […] SnowBrains | July 15, 2024 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO June 2024 Update: La Niña Likely by Late Summer After a year of dominance, El Niño released its hold on the tropical Pacific in May 2024, according to NOAA’s latest ENSO update. El Niño—the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), our planet’s single largest natural source of year-to-year variations in seasonal climate—has been disrupting climate in the tropics and beyond since May 2023, likely contributing to many […] Weather WeatherBrains | June 14, 2024 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO May 2024 Update: 69% Chance Weakening El Niño Will Transition to La Niña by Fall El Niño weakened substantially over the past month, and we think a transition to neutral conditions is imminent. There’s a 69% chance that La Niña will develop by July–September (and nearly 50-50 odds by June-August). Let’s kick off the ENSO Blog’s tin anniversary with our 121st ENSO outlook update! Attention! First things first: our beloved editor, Rebecca Lindsey, has trained […] Weather WeatherBrains | May 9, 2024 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Update April 2024: 85% Chance La Niña Develops Next Winter The El Niño of 2023–24 is weakening. Forecasters estimate an 85% chance that El Niño will end and the tropical Pacific will transition to neutral conditions by the April–June period. There’s a 60% chance that La Niña will develop by June–August. Overall, the forecast this month is very similar to last month, and we continue to expect La Niña for […] Weather WeatherBrains | April 12, 2024 0 Comments
March 2024 ENSO Update: 62% Chance of La Niña by June–August This article originally appeared on climate.gov El Niño—the warm phase of ENSO, which is short for El Niño-Southern Oscillation—is still hanging on in the tropical Pacific, but signs are pointing to a quick transition to neutral conditions by the April–June period. There’s a 62% chance of La Niña getting the golden ticket by June–August. Stay tuned, because La Niña affects […] Weather WeatherBrains | March 15, 2024 0 Comments
February 2024 ENSO Outlook: 55% Chance El Niño Transitions to La Niña in Summer On a brisk early February morning, all of us El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasters emerged from our burrows and saw our shadows. That can mean only one thing: conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña within the next six months. Yes, the February ENSO Outlook officially announces that we are in a La Niña Watch, even while, at […] Weather WeatherBrains | February 8, 2024 0 Comments
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