NOAA ENSO Update April 2024: 85% Chance La Niña Develops Next Winter The El Niño of 2023–24 is weakening. Forecasters estimate an 85% chance that El Niño will end and the tropical Pacific will transition to neutral conditions by the April–June period. There’s a 60% chance that La Niña will develop by June–August. Overall, the forecast this month is very similar to last month, and we continue to expect La Niña for […] Weather WeatherBrains | April 12, 2024 0 Comments
March 2024 ENSO Update: 62% Chance of La Niña by June–August This article originally appeared on climate.gov El Niño—the warm phase of ENSO, which is short for El Niño-Southern Oscillation—is still hanging on in the tropical Pacific, but signs are pointing to a quick transition to neutral conditions by the April–June period. There’s a 62% chance of La Niña getting the golden ticket by June–August. Stay tuned, because La Niña affects […] Weather WeatherBrains | March 15, 2024 0 Comments
February 2024 ENSO Outlook: 55% Chance El Niño Transitions to La Niña in Summer On a brisk early February morning, all of us El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasters emerged from our burrows and saw our shadows. That can mean only one thing: conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña within the next six months. Yes, the February ENSO Outlook officially announces that we are in a La Niña Watch, even while, at […] Weather WeatherBrains | February 8, 2024 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO January 2024 Update: El Niño Reaching Peak Strength | 60% Chance of La Niña in Late-Summer/Fall El Niño is very likely close to peak strength and is likely to continue for the next few months while gradually weakening. Despite the expected weakening of El Niño’s tropical Pacific sea surface signature, impacts to global climate will continue for the next few months. Forecasters currently expect ENSO-neutral conditions (ENSO = El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the whole El Niño & […] Weather WeatherBrains | January 12, 2024 0 Comments
The State of the Snowpack: Hope For More Snow in 2024 This winter has brought a slow start to the ski season for ski resorts across North America. With few storms delivering a mix of rain and snow, many ski areas are struggling to open terrain. On top of little base snow, many resorts have also suffered from warm temperatures, precluding the use of snow-making systems to make up for the […] Weather Zach Armstrong | December 31, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Update December 2023: 54% Chance El Niño Will be “Historically Strong” in Top 5 on Record El Niño is zipping along in the tropical Pacific. There’s a 54% chance that this El Niño event will end up “historically strong” (more details below), potentially ranking in the top 5 on record. Looking ahead, it’s likely that El Niño will end and neutral conditions return by April–June. Sail across the Pacific El Niño is associated with specific changes […] Weather WeatherBrains | December 14, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Blog: How Does El Niño Influence Snowfall Over the United States? After the last three winters of La Niña conditions (weren’t we all ready for a change!), the tropical Pacific is looking much different this year, with a strong El Niño likely this winter (1). Historically, how has El Niño shaped precipitation (rainfall + snowfall) over the U.S.? Let’s dig in and find out! Related: SnowBrains Forecast: Colorado to Get Hammered This Weekend – 2+ FEET […] Weather WeatherBrains | December 1, 2023 0 Comments
California is Drought-Free for the First Time in 3 Years As of October 17, the State of California is finally free from drought. This comes after California experienced one of its best water years (October 1 to September 30 annually) in recorded history, according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s U.S. Drought Monitor. California Water Watch reports that the 22/23 water year yielded 141% of the statewide annual average […] Kyle Fehlen | November 24, 2023 0 Comments