NOAA: July 2022 ENSO Update – 66% Chance of a La Niña Winter, ~5% Chance of El Niño Winter I’m in San Diego this week, gazing out across the Pacific toward La Niña’s cool tropical ocean surface. (I’m not here for Comic-Con, but there are a lot of posters around the city that keep that upcoming event in the forefront.) Just over my horizon, La Niña—the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (“ENSO” for short)—remains in force, despite […] Weather WeatherBrains | July 15, 2022 0 Comments
May 2022 ENSO Update: 61% Chance of Another La Niña Next Fall and Early Winter Written by Emily Becker and published on climate.gov on May 12, 2022 May 2022 ENSO update: piece of cake La Niña continued through April, and forecasters estimate a 61% chance of a La Niña three-peat for next fall and early winter. Current El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO, the entire El Niño and La Niña system) conditions, the forecast for the rest […] Weather WeatherBrains | May 12, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA: Double-Dip La Niña Emerges This post was originally published on NOAA.gov A La Nina has developed and will extend through the second winter in a row according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service. La Nina is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator and […] Weather WeatherBrains | October 15, 2021 0 Comments
NOAA: Forecasters Increase Likelihood of La Niña Winter to 70% This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Nat Johnson ENSO-neutral conditions continue in the tropics, but ENSO’s next performance may be approaching, as forecasters have increased the likelihood (~70% probability) that La Niña will reemerge by early winter. A La Niña Watch remains in effect. Related: La Niña Explained: July, the ENSO, Winter 21/22 […] Weather WeatherBrains | August 13, 2021 2 Comments
Direct Weather Shares 2021-2022 Winter Forecast Direct Weather issued their 2021-2022 winter forecast this week. Long-range forecasts like these aren’t necessarily gospel and should be taken with a grain of salt, however, teleconnection patterns can sometimes accurately indicate synoptic-scale trends. Summary: The forecast calls for above-average snowfall in the Pacific Northwest, Montana, Wyoming, and most of the East Coast this winter. The forecast calls for a drier […] Weather Clay Malott | August 5, 2021 2 Comments
La Niña Explained: July, the ENSO, Winter 21/22 and You What do July, the ENSO, and Winter 21/22 all have in common? La Niña, of course! NOAA has just released their prediction for a La Niña winter 20/21. As of July, there is a 55% chance of a La Niña winter, which is great news for the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies and not-so-great news for the intermountain region […] Weather Lynn Barlow | July 13, 2021 0 Comments
NOAA: We Know All About El Niño and La Niña, But What About ‘Pacific Decadal Oscillation’? This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Tom Di Liberto We talk a lot about El Niño and La Niña at the ENSO blog, but there are other phenomena that garner interest among scientists, even if they do not have the same brand recognition as El Niño. So while we wait for a potential […] Weather WeatherBrains | June 3, 2021 0 Comments
NOAA: April 2021 ENSO Update – La Niña Hanging On But Will Transition to Neutral in Next Month This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Emily Becker La Niña is hanging on in the tropical Pacific, but it’s likely a transition to neutral will occur in the next month or so, and the chance of neutral goes up to 80% in May–July. Grab your goggles and your running shoes! We’re going to […] Weather WeatherBrains | April 8, 2021 0 Comments
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