el nino

OpenSnow’s 2025–26 North America Winter Forecast: ENSO Outlook, Snowfall, and Regional Trends

As summer is coming to a close, many winter enthusiasts are turning their attention to the upcoming winter season. This includes weather outlooks, and OpenSnow recently released its 2025-26 North America winter forecast preview. The notable points are outlined below; however, please refer to the entire forecast for complete details. While long-range forecasts carry plenty of uncertainty, the ENSO pattern—the El Niño Southern Oscillation—provides some […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
Avatar photo Brent Glogau |
0 Comments

NOAA June 2025 ENSO Update: Neutral Conditions—Neither El Niño nor La Niña—Most Likely for Winter 2025-26

This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Emily Becker. The Pacific Ocean has hit pause and settled into ENSO-neutral conditions, which are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer. This makes seasonal forecasting for upcoming global rain, temperature, and other patterns a bit trickier. Related: These Are the 6 Ski Areas Open in […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments

NOAA May 2025 ENSO Update: Next Winter Likely ENSO-Neutral, Although La Niña a Possibility

This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog.​ The tropical Pacific is in ENSO-neutral conditions, and neutral is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer. Neutral is also the most likely outcome for the fall and winter, although chances of La Niña are a close second. Today, as your trusty representative of the ENSO forecast team, I’ll cover […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments

NOAA ENSO December 2024 Update: Weak La Niña Forecast Packs Surprising Punch

This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Nat Johnson Although it’s taking its sweet old time to get going, a weak La Niña, the cool phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is expected to develop this winter. Much like I did last November, I thought it would be a good time to delve into how these expected tropical […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments

Weak La Niña Poised to Influence U.S. Winter Precipitation Patterns

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) has shared on its ENSO blog that a weak La Niña, the cooler phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is expected to develop this winter, shifting North America’s precipitation patterns. Contributors he ENSO blog are, amongst others, Michelle L’Heureux (NOAA Climate Prediction Center), Emily Becker (University of Miami/CIMAS), Nat Johnson (NOAA Geophysical […]
Post Tag for Industry NewsIndustry News
Avatar photo SnowBrains |
0 Comments

NOAA ENSO June 2024 Update: La Niña Likely by Late Summer

After a year of dominance, El Niño released its hold on the tropical Pacific in May 2024, according to NOAA’s latest ENSO update. El Niño—the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), our planet’s single largest natural source of year-to-year variations in seasonal climate—has been disrupting climate in the tropics and beyond since May 2023, likely contributing to many […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments

NOAA ENSO May 2024 Update: 69% Chance Weakening El Niño Will Transition to La Niña by Fall

El Niño weakened substantially over the past month, and we think a transition to neutral conditions is imminent. There’s a 69% chance that La Niña will develop by July–September (and nearly 50-50 odds by June-August). Let’s kick off the ENSO Blog’s tin anniversary with our 121st ENSO outlook update! Attention! First things first: our beloved editor, Rebecca Lindsey, has trained […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments

March 2024 ENSO Update: 62% Chance of La Niña by June–August

This article originally appeared on climate.gov El Niño—the warm phase of ENSO, which is short for El Niño-Southern Oscillation—is still hanging on in the tropical Pacific, but signs are pointing to a quick transition to neutral conditions by the April–June period. There’s a 62% chance of La Niña getting the golden ticket by June–August. Stay tuned, because La Niña affects […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments

NOAA ENSO January 2024 Update: El Niño Reaching Peak Strength | 60% Chance of La Niña in Late-Summer/Fall

El Niño is very likely close to peak strength and is likely to continue for the next few months while gradually weakening. Despite the expected weakening of El Niño’s tropical Pacific sea surface signature, impacts to global climate will continue for the next few months. Forecasters currently expect ENSO-neutral conditions (ENSO = El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the whole El Niño & […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments

NOAA ENSO Update December 2023: 54% Chance El Niño Will be “Historically Strong” in Top 5 on Record

El Niño is zipping along in the tropical Pacific. There’s a 54% chance that this El Niño event will end up “historically strong” (more details below), potentially ranking in the top 5 on record. Looking ahead, it’s likely that El Niño will end and neutral conditions return by April­–June. Sail across the Pacific El Niño is associated with specific changes […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments

NOAA ENSO Blog: How Does El Niño Influence Snowfall Over the United States?

After the last three winters of La Niña conditions (weren’t we all ready for a change!), the tropical Pacific is looking much different this year, with a strong El Niño likely this winter (1). Historically, how has El Niño shaped precipitation (rainfall + snowfall) over the U.S.? Let’s dig in and find out! Related: SnowBrains Forecast: Colorado to Get Hammered This Weekend – 2+ FEET […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments