ENSO

NOAA June 2025 ENSO Update: Neutral Conditionsโ€”Neither El Niรฑo nor La Niรฑaโ€”Most Likely for Winter 2025-26

This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Emily Becker. The Pacific Ocean has hit pause and settled into ENSO-neutral conditions, which are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer. This makes seasonal forecasting for upcoming global rain, temperature, and other patterns a bit trickier. Related: These Are the 6 Ski Areas Open in [โ€ฆ]
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WeatherBrains |
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Is Early Season Snow a Harbinger of Good or Bad Newsโ€”A Statistical Analysis for Australia

With the first snow of the season hitting Australian resorts such as Perisher and Thredbo, excitement for the 2025 season is starting to build. The idea that an early dusting portends a stellar winter has deep roots in ski lore, bolstered by the thrill of advanced openings and first turns on untouched snow. While early-season snowfall certainly generates enthusiasm, some [โ€ฆ]
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Julia Schneemann |
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NOAA May 2025 ENSO Update: Next Winter Likely ENSO-Neutral, Although La Niรฑa a Possibility

This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog.โ€‹ The tropical Pacific is in ENSO-neutral conditions, and neutral is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer. Neutral is also the most likely outcome for the fall and winter, although chances of La Niรฑa are a close second. Today, as your trusty representative of the ENSO forecast team, Iโ€™ll cover [โ€ฆ]
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WeatherBrains |
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NOAA April 2025 ENSO Update: La Niรฑa has Ended

This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog. After just a few months of La Niรฑa conditions, the tropical Pacific is now ENSO-neutral, and forecasters expect neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer. Neutral is also the most likely state through the fall (greater than 50% chance). Related: NOAA: Did La Niรฑa Shape North American Precipitation this Winter [โ€ฆ]
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WeatherBrains |
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NOAA ENSO Update January 2025: 59% Chance La Niรฑa Februaryโ€“April and 60% Chance of Neutral Conditions in Marchโ€“May

This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO Blog and was written by Emily Becker La Niรฑa conditions emerged in the tropical Pacific in December. Thereโ€™s a 59% chance La Niรฑa will persist through Februaryโ€“April, followed by a 60% chance of neutral conditions in Marchโ€“May. Read on for the recent observations that led us to declare the (long-awaited) onset of [โ€ฆ]
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WeatherBrains |
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NOAA ENSO December 2024 Update: Weak La Niรฑa Forecast Packs Surprising Punch

This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Nat Johnson Although itโ€™s taking its sweet old time to get going, a weak La Niรฑa, the cool phase of the El Niรฑo/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is expected to develop this winter. Much like I did last November, I thought it would be a good time to delve into how these expected tropical [โ€ฆ]
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WeatherBrains |
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Weak La Niรฑa Poised to Influence U.S. Winter Precipitation Patterns

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) has shared on its ENSO blog that a weak La Niรฑa, the cooler phase of the El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is expected to develop this winter, shifting North Americaโ€™s precipitation patterns. Contributors he ENSO blog are, amongst others, Michelle Lโ€™Heureux (NOAA Climate Prediction Center), Emily Becker (University of Miami/CIMAS), Nat Johnson (NOAA Geophysical [โ€ฆ]
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Avatar photo SnowBrains |
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NOAA November 2024 ENSO Update: 57% Chance Weak La Niรฑa Will Develop Soon Then Last Through Winter

This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Emily Becker. Thereโ€™s a 57% chance La Niรฑa will develop soon. This is late for La Niรฑa to arrive, and itโ€™s very likely to be a weak event at most. However, even a weak event can influence temperature, rain, and snow patterns across the world. Today, weโ€™ll [โ€ฆ]
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WeatherBrains |
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NOAA ENSO Update: La Niรฑaโ€™s Historical Impact โ€“ What to Expect for Snow This Winter

This article about the impact of La Niรฑa on snow first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Tom Di Liberto. Iโ€™ll cut to the chase. Spooky season is coming to an end, and people are beginning to set their sights on winter. And when it comes to winter, thereโ€™s a big, white, abominable โ€œelephantโ€ in the [โ€ฆ]
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WeatherBrains |
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NOAA ENSO October 2024 Update: Confidence of La Niรฑa Emerging This Winter Decreased to 60% Chance

This ENSO update first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO Blog and was written by Emily Becker. The tropical Pacific Ocean reflected neutral conditionsโ€”neither El Niรฑo nor La Niรฑaโ€”in September. Forecasters continue to favor La Niรฑa later this year, with an approximately 60% chance it will develop in Septemberโ€“November. The probability of La Niรฑa is a bit lower than last month, [โ€ฆ]
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WeatherBrains |
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NOAA ENSO May 2024 Update: 69% Chance Weakening El Niรฑo Will Transition to La Niรฑa by Fall

El Niรฑo weakened substantially over the past month, and we think a transition to neutral conditions is imminent. Thereโ€™s a 69% chance that La Niรฑa will develop by Julyโ€“September (and nearly 50-50 odds by June-August). Letโ€™s kick off the ENSO Blogโ€™s tin anniversary with our 121st ENSO outlook update! Attention! First things first: our beloved editor, Rebecca Lindsey, has trained [โ€ฆ]
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WeatherBrains |
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NOAA ENSO Update April 2024: 85% Chance La Niรฑa Develops Next Winter

The El Niรฑo of 2023โ€“24 is weakening. Forecasters estimate an 85% chance that El Niรฑo will end and the tropical Pacific will transition to neutral conditions by the Aprilโ€“June period. Thereโ€™s a 60% chance that La Niรฑa will develop by Juneโ€“August. Overall, the forecast this month is very similar to last month, and we continue to expect La Niรฑa for [โ€ฆ]
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WeatherBrains |
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NOAA ENSO January 2024 Update: El Niรฑo Reaching Peak Strength | 60% Chance of La Niรฑa in Late-Summer/Fall

El Niรฑo is very likely close to peak strength and is likely to continue for the next few months while gradually weakening. Despite the expected weakening of El Niรฑoโ€™s tropical Pacific sea surface signature, impacts to global climate will continue for the next few months. Forecasters currently expect ENSO-neutral conditions (ENSO = El Niรฑo/Southern Oscillation, the whole El Niรฑo & [โ€ฆ]
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WeatherBrains |
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NOAA ENSO Update December 2023: 54% Chance El Niรฑo Will be โ€œHistorically Strongโ€ in Top 5 on Record

El Niรฑo is zipping along in the tropical Pacific. Thereโ€™s a 54% chance that this El Niรฑo event will end up โ€œhistorically strongโ€ (more details below), potentially ranking in the top 5 on record. Looking ahead, itโ€™s likely that El Niรฑo will end and neutral conditions return by Aprilยญโ€“June. Sail across the Pacific El Niรฑo is associated with specific changes [โ€ฆ]
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WeatherBrains |
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NOAA ENSO Blog: How Does El Niรฑo Influence Snowfall Over the United States?

After the last three winters of La Niรฑa conditions (werenโ€™t we all ready for a change!), the tropical Pacific is looking much different this year, with a strong El Niรฑo likely this winter (1). Historically, how has El Niรฑo shaped precipitation (rainfall + snowfall) over the U.S.? Letโ€™s dig in and find out! Related: SnowBrains Forecast: Colorado to Get Hammered This Weekend โ€“ 2+ FEET [โ€ฆ]
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WeatherBrains |
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NOAA ENSO November 2023 Update: This Winterโ€™s El Niรฑo is Officially a Strong Event

El Niรฑo is currently chugging along, and forecasters expect it to continue for the next several months, with a 62% chance of lasting through Aprilยญโ€“June 2024. Since weโ€™re heading into the winter, when El Niรฑoโ€™s effect on Northern Hemisphere temperature and rain/snow is most distinct, today weโ€™ll drive by some of El Niรฑoโ€™s wide-ranging impacts. On rails First stopโ€”this El [โ€ฆ]
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WeatherBrains |
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NOAA ENSO Update October 2023: El Niรฑo is Certain, But How Strong Will it Get?

El Niรฑo is currently purring along in the tropical Pacific. Forecasters expect El Niรฑo will continue through the spring, with a 75-85% chance it will become a strong event. A stronger El Niรฑoโ€”definition to follow shortlyโ€”means it is more likely that we will see El Niรฑoโ€™s expected thumbprint on winter temperature and rain/snow patterns around the world. Related: 2023-24 El [โ€ฆ]
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WeatherBrains |
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NOAA September ENSO Update: Greater Than 95% Chance El Niรฑo Sticks Around Through March

Letโ€™s cut right to the chase. According to the September El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation (aka โ€ENSOโ€) Outlook, El Niรฑo is expected to stick around (with greater than a 95% chance) at least through January-March 2024. There is now around a 71% chance that this event peaks as a strong El Niรฑo this winter (Oceanic Niรฑo Index โ‰ฅ 1.5 หšCelsius). Remember, though, [โ€ฆ]
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WeatherBrains |
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2023-24 El Niรฑo Outlook: What Are the Implications for North American Ski Season?

After three years of moderate La Niรฑa winters, El Niรฑo is poised to return in full force, having major implications for the North American ski season. Letโ€™s look at what El Niรฑo is, how it works, and the impact it will have on snowfall this season. Related: Farmersโ€™ Almanac 2023/24 Winter Forecast: A Return Of Traditional Winter Weather: The Brrr [โ€ฆ]
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WeatherBrains |
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NOAA ENSO August 2023 Update: Greater Than 95% Chance of El Niรฑo This Winter โ€“ But What Does That Mean?

Itโ€™s that time again! And by โ€œthat time,โ€ I mean the El Niรฑo forecast update, of course. The chance that El Niรฑoโ€”the warm phase of the El Niรฑo Southern Oscillation (aka โ€œENSOโ€) climate patternโ€”will continue through the winter is greater than 95%, so letโ€™s sharpen our pencils and get into the details of what that means for upcoming seasons. Related: [โ€ฆ]
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WeatherBrains |
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