strong el nino

Official NOAA October Strong El Nino Update: Good News for N. California, Bad for N. Rockies

NOAA just released their latest El Nino update today.  The current El Nino is now officially strong.  Here are the highlights from their complex update: In coastal northern California, a strong El Niño year averages about 40 rainy days per winter (December 1st through February 28th), compared to about 26 during a non-El Niño winter. In the northern Rocky Mountains, […]
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NOAA: The History of El Nino in the USA

DIfference from average (1981-2010) winter precipitation (December-February) in each U.S. climate division during strong (dark gray bar), moderate (medium gray), and weak (light gray) El Niño events since 1950. Years are ranked based on the maximum seasonal ONI index value observed. During strong El Niño events, the Gulf Coast and Southeast are consistently wetter than average. Maps by NOAA Climate.gov, based on NCDC climate division data provided by the Physical Sciences Division at NOAA ESRL.

By this point, most of you have heard that it looks like El Niño is coming, and maybe you’re wondering why you should care. After all, why should it matter if the tropical Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than average? That’s thousands of miles away from the continental United States. Well, it turns out that El Niño often results in changes in the patterns of precipitation and temperature across many parts of the globe, including North America (Ropelewski and Halpert 1987, Halpert and Ropelewski 1992). We’re all wondering what will happen to the USA this winter with the strong El Nino on the way. NOAA breaks it down for us here by showing […]
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Official NOAA August 2015 El Nino Update: Odds Are Good for California

El Nino CA

NOAA just released their latest El Nino update. They’re calling it Supercalifragilisticexpealidocious, which we think is a good sign. They expect that the current El Nino will peak in late fall/early winter and that it will be one of the strongest El Nino ever recorded. As of August, NOAA and IRI forecasters are predicting this El Niño will peak in the late fall/early winter with 3-month-average sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region near or exceeding 2.0°C (3.6°F) above normal. If this forecast comes true, it will place the 2015 event among the strongest El Niños in the (admittedly short) 1950-2015 historical record. What would this mean for expected impacts in the United States?
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What a Strong El Nino Means for Utah:

Meteorlogist Chris Tomers predictions for the coming Strong El Nino for the West Coast and Utah.

In case you haven’t heard, El Nino is here now, it’s getting stronger, and the this El Nino may be the strongest on record. We know that in California, 4 of the 5 strong El Ninos on record have resulted in above average precipitation, but what does it mean for our snow-crazed friends in Utah? The only information we’ve been able to dig up so far is the last 5 strong El Nino snow totals at the Alta Guard station in Alta, Utah. The Alta Guard station sees an average annual snowfall of 499″. Two of the three strong El Nino’s produced below average snowfall, but not much below. 433″ in 65/66 and […]
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NOAA’s Official Outlook for Winter 2015/16 in the USA

NOAA precipitation forecast for winter 2015/16. NOAA expects higher than average precip in the southern half of the country and drier than average conditions in the Pacific Northwest

NOAA has just released their outlook for the 2015/16 USA Winter. NOAA is now expecting strong El Nino to continue through to Spring 2015/16 and that prediction is powerfully affecting their outlook for the coming winter. This forecast looks good for skiing and riding in Calfiornia, Arizona, south Colorado, & New Mexico with above average precipitation forecast. This forecast looks bad for the Pacific Northwest, […]
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Official NOAA El Nino Update: 90% Chance El Nino Will Continue Into Winter 2015/16

El nino and Earth.

NOAA just released their latest El Nino update today and they are saying that there is now greater than a 90% chance that the current El Nino will continue through our Northern winter 2015/16. There is even a 80% that the current El Nino will continue through Spring 2016. Boom! NOAA is also saying that many models are predicting the current El Nino to develop into a Strong El Nino during the norther winter of 2015/16. 4 of the 5 recorded Strong El Nino’s in California have resulted in Above Average Snowfall.
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Official NOAA El Nino Update: Strong El Nino Likely for Winter 2015/16

NOAA is saying that there is an 85% chance that the current El Nino will last into the 2015/16 North American winter. They are now also saying that they favor a “Strong” El Nino for winter 2015/16. “NOAA CPC/IRI forecasters are now very confident that the event will continue through the fall (over 90% chance) and into the winter (~85% chance).” – NOAA “…forecasters currently favor a “strong” event for the fall/early winter.” – NOAA […]
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NOAA Report: Chance of El Nino DECREASED to 65% This Winter

Synopsis:The chance of El Niño has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter.During July 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, but near average SSTs prevailed in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). Most of the Niño indices decreased toward the end of the month with values of +0.3°C in Niño-4, -0.1°C in Niño-3.4, +0.2°C in Niño-3, and +0.6°C in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2). Subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180º-100ºW) continued to decrease and are slightly below average (Fig. 3). […]
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