Study Explains if Recent Drought is a Result of us being in the Second Winter of a Double-Dip La NiƱa

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Drought across much of the U.S. Credit: ibtimes.co.uk

You might have noticed that it has been quite dry over much of the U.S. this winter, with drought expanding across several regions, particularly in the south.

As we are currently fully immersed in the second winter of a ā€œdouble-dipā€ La NiƱa, you mightĀ wonder if these dry conditions are typical in the second winter of a double-dipĀ La NiƱa?Ā  And are there any differences in how the atmosphere responds to La NiƱa in the second winter relative to the first?Ā  Well if either of those questions ever crossed your mind, then youā€™re in luck!

la nina, drought, double dip
Average precipitation anomalies (mm/day) for Novemberā€“April for the first (left) and second (right) extended winters of all multi-year La NiƱas since 1900. Anomalies are compared to the 1900-2012 average, with the linear trend removed. Climate.gov figure from GPCC data and adapted from Okumura et al. (2017).

ENSO blog recently published the results of aĀ study led by Dr. Yuko Okumura of the University of Texas at Austin, which addressed how the impacts of La NiƱa may change from the first winter to the second for double-dip La NiƱas like this one.

Double-dipĀ La NiƱasĀ actually are pretty common. Including the current event, we have experienced eight instances in which La NiƱa conditions in the first winter were followed by La NiƱa in the subsequent winter.

Spoiler alert: Dr. Okumura and colleagues found evidence that U.S. drought and the North Pacific atmospheric circulation anomalies strengthen in the second winter of a double-dip La NiƱa.

For the full study, and to geek out on the science, stats, graphs, and maps, go to the climate.gov website. Super interesting!


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