Weather
The NOAA released its outlook for mid-May over the weekend.ย Looks like most of the west can expect above-normal temperatures to continue, while the north-east can look forward to cooler temperatures.
- Related: Summer 2020 Weather Outlook
In terms of precipitation, as well as being warm, the west-coast will also be wetter than normal. The northeast can also expect a wet pattern too. The majority of the country can expect below-normal precipitation.
Here’s the full NOAA discussion below:
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 12 - 18 2020 During the 8-14 day period, models continue to be in general agreement on the prediction of moderately amplified mean flow pattern at high latitudes. Mean troughs are favored for the Aleutians and northeastern North America, while a mean ridge is expected over western Canada and Alaska. Predicted 500-hPa height anomalies are weak over most of the CONUS outside of the northeastern CONUS. The ECMWF ensemble mean was weighted most in the manual blend of 500-hPa height forecasts, due to recent model skill. Probabilities of above normal temperatures are enhanced for most of the western CONUS, the Southern Plains, and the southern Florida Peninsula, under weak positive or negative 500-hPa height anomalies, supported by the operational Autoblend and ERF Consolidation tools. Probabilities of below normal temperatures are elevated over the northeastern CONUS, and parts of the Northern Plains and Central Plains, under the predicted trough. Near normal temperatures are favored for parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast, where calibrated temperature forecasts from the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles disagree. Above normal temperatures are likely for Alaska, under anomalous southerly flow and positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Above normal precipitation is likely for much of the West Coast of the CONUS due to the enhanced Pacific flow. Return flow favors a wet pattern for much of the Southern Plains and east-central CONUS. Increased chances of below normal precipitation are likely over North Dakota, parts of northwestern Minnesota, southeastern Nevada, southwestern Utah, and northwestern Arizona, consistent with the GEFS and ECMWF reforecast tools. Near to below normal precipitation is favored for Alaska due to anomalous ridging across much of the Alaska Mainland. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 20% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, due to fair agreement among model circulation forecasts, offset by some disagreement among surface tools and increasing ensemble spread.
