NOAA is calling for a large storm, likely an Atmospheric River, to hit Lake Tahoe, CA/NV this coming Thursday-Sunday.
"At this time, the atmospheric river looks to be of the weak to moderate variety based on GEFS analysis." - NOAA Reno, NV today
Precipitation is forecast to be heaviest on Friday.
Thursday-Sunday precipitation totals are forecast to be 3-4″ (which would translate to around 30-40+” of snow where it’s all snow).
Snow Levels are forecast to start around 6,500-7,500′ on Friday before dropping to 5,000-6,000′ on Friday night and Saturday and even lower on Sunday.
"For those living in the Sierra, beprepared for the potential for additional heavy snow." - NOAA Reno, NV today
Our friend, Bryan Allegretto from OpenSnow.com, is calling for 9-47″ of snow (depending on elevation) for Squaw from Thursday-Sunday.
NOAA FORECAST DISCUSSION TODAY:
PRECIPITATION: The initial push of moisture will move into the region Friday morning with the heaviest precipitation rates likely to be Friday into Friday night. Precipitation will taper to showers Saturday and Sunday behind the cold front. Very preliminary liquid precipitation totals indicate chances for 2-4 inches along the Sierra crest with 1-2 inches in the Tahoe Basin and eastern Sierra foothills. 0.5-1 inch is possible along the Sierra Front with lesser amounts into west central Nevada. SNOW LEVELS: Most likely scenarios show snow levels in the 6500-7500 foot range with the onset of the precipitation Friday (lowest closer to the Oregon border). The higher precipitation rates will work in the favor of keeping snow levels down ahead of the cold front. The cold front looks to push through Friday night, taking snow levels down to 5000-6000 feet by Saturday and even lower Sunday under the cold core of the upper low. While this storm is nothing like the huge AR events we saw in January and February, it has the potential to be a significant snow event for the high Sierra, especially considering it is now April. Travel is likely to be impacted across all passes much of the weekend.