NOAA: “Historic” Atmospheric River Storm To Make Impact Western USA Today-Monday | Up to 25″ of Precipitation Forecast

WeatherBrains | | WeatherWeather

This loop of water vapor satellite imagery from the past 24 hours shows the developing storm off the West Coast.

The potentially “historic” Atmospheric River storm is now forecast to be coming in 3 waves:

  • Thursday into Friday
  • Saturday into Sunday
  • Sunday into Monday
10-day snowfall forecast in USA from GFS model. image: tropical tidbits
10-day snowfall forecast in USA from GFS model. image: tropical tidbits

103-139″ of snow are forecast for 10,762′ Mt. Baker, WA in the next 4 days…

1-2 feet of snow is forecast in Idaho’s Sawtooth Mountains.

12-15″ of snow are forecast for western Wyoming’s mountains.

screen-shot-2016-10-13-at-1-53-10-pm

103-139" of snow forecast for near the summit of 10,762' Mt. Baker, WA in the next 4 days. image: noaa, today
103-139″ of snow forecast for near the summit of 10,762′ Mt. Baker, WA in the next 4 days. image: noaa, today

 

Northern California has up to 25″ of precipitation forecast in the next 7 days.

Waves may be up to 35′ tall during the storm and winds might be nuts..

SEAS COULD BUILD TO 30 TO 35 FEET OVER THE WASHINGTON
COASTAL WATERS...WITH LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES IMPACTING THE
COAST. 
- NOAA Seattle, WA today
THIS WOULD BE A
WORST CASE SCENARIO LEADING TO A HISTORICAL WINDSTORM FOR NEARLY
ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THAT WOULD BE LONG REMEMBERED. 
- NOAA Seattle, WA today
24" of precipitation forecast for NorCal next 7 days! image: noaa, today
24″ of precipitation forecast for NorCal next 7 days! image: noaa, today

 

There are many many advisories issued throughout the western USA today.

Special Weather Statements issued for Washington, California, and Wyoming (see below).

Southern Oregon alone currently has 7 advisories issued:

  • High Wind Warning
  • Wind Advisory
  • Flash Flood Watch
  • Flood Watch
  • High Surf Warning
  • Storm Warning
  • Gale Warning
7 advisories issued for southern Oregon currently. image: noaa, today
7 advisories issued for southern Oregon currently. image: noaa, today

HUGE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS NEXT 7-DAYS:

  • 24.8″ for Northwestern California
  • 12.4″ for Olympic Mountains, WA
  • 18.4″ for Southwestern Washington
  • 14″ for Southwestern B.C. 

SNOW LEVELS FORECAST for WEST COAST:

***

5,000-8,000′ for Washington

snow level will be around 5000
ft. - NOAA Seattle, WA today

6,000-8,000′ for Oregon

Snow levels look to be above 8kft for the bulk of this precipitation
event, but could dip to near 7kft in heavier bursts of precipitation
and on the tail end of individual frontal systems through Saturday
night. Sunday through Monday snow levels are expected to lower to
near 6kft. 
- NOAA Medford, OR tuesday

8,500′ for California

NORTHERN SIERRA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 8000
TO 9000 FEET. A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE SIERRA WHILE WESTERN NEVADA SEES A
BREAK SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN RESUMES SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SNOW LEVELS SLOWLY FALL TO NEAR 7000 FEET.

SNOW MAY BRIEFLY ACCUMULATE ON THE SIERRA
PASSES ABOVE 8500 FEET ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR TRAVEL DELAYS IN THE SIERRA DUE TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING ON INTERSTATE 80 AND HIGHWAY 50.

- NOAA Reno, NV

7,500′ for IDAHO

Heavy snow above 7,500 feet (1-2ft – Sawtooths and nearby mountains)” – NOAA Boise, ID today

7,000-8,000′ for MONTANA

Snow levels will slowly fall from 8000 feet to between 6000 and 7000 feet by Friday afternoon.  Above these levels, snow will be heavy at times.” – NOAA Missoula, MT today

8,000′ for WYOMING

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH
SNOW LEVELS FROM 8000 TO 8500 FEET. - NOAA Riverton, WY today
Current USA radar at 2:45pm PST. image: noaa, today
Current USA radar at 2:45pm PST. image: noaa, today

STATE BY STATE WEATHER BREAKDOWN:

***

WASHINGTON

Big wind for WA. image: noaa, seattle wa today
Big wind for WA. image: noaa, seattle wa today

“Please remember that falling tree limbs and trees are the most common cause of injuries and fatalities during our windstorms.” – NOAA Seattle, WA today

OREGON:

"Many places can expect more rain over the next few days than the normal rainfall totals for all of October!" - NOAA Medford, OR today
“Many places can expect more rain over the next few days than the normal rainfall totals for all of October!” – NOAA Medford, OR today

“After the first strong storm moves through today (10/13), another stronger system will affect our area on Saturday. Dangerous conditions due to strong, damaging winds and heavy rain are expected. Be prepared for these strong winds and possible power outages!” – NOAA Medford, OR today

CALIFORNIA:

image: noaa, today
image: noaa, today
" Most of the event snow levels will be in the 8000-9000 feet range but could briefly fall to around 7000 feet or lower on Sunday night." - NOAA Reno, NV today
” Most of the event snow levels will be in the 8000-9000 feet range but could briefly fall to around 7000 feet or lower on Sunday night.” – NOAA Reno, NV today
Storm details for CA. image: noaa sacramento, ca today
Storm details for CA. image: noaa sacramento, ca today
NorCal precip totals. image: noaa, today
NorCal precip totals. image: noaa, today
Big rain for San Francisco Bay Area. image: noaa, today
Big rain for San Francisco Bay Area. image: noaa, today

“There will be 2 periods of heavy rain: Thursday night through Friday and again Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. Most of the event snow levels will be in the 8000-9000 feet range but could briefly fall to around 7000 feet or lower on Sunday night.” – NOAA Reno, NV today

IDAHO:

Big snow forecast for Idaho. image: noaa boise, id today
Big snow forecast for Idaho. image: noaa boise, id today
1-2 feet of snow in idaho. image: noaa, today
1-2 feet of snow in idaho. image: noaa, today

“Impressive parade of powerful storms developing across the Pacific Ocean and headed towards the West. Significant precipitation and wind is expected across the West.” – NOAA Boise, ID today

MONTANA:

BIg precip for MT. image : noaa, today
BIg precip for MT. image : noaa, today

“The mountains in Montana will see lesser amounts with 1-3 inches of rain. Rock and debris slides will be the greatest threats along the steep terrain of susceptible highways and forest roads. Snow levels will slowly fall from 8000 feet to between 6000 and 7000 feet by Friday afternoon. Above these levels, snow will be heavy at times. After this first system, multiple subsequent waves of moisture will make for a wet, rainy conditions well into next week.” – NOAA Missoula, MT today

WYOMING:

image:  noaa, today
image: noaa, today
"PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH
SNOW LEVELS FROM 8000 TO 8500 FEET." - NOAA Riverton, WY today
Big wind for the West this weekend. image: noaa, today
Big wind for the West this weekend. image: noaa, today

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT for WASHINGTON:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
828 AM PDT THU OCT 13 2016

SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-
WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA-
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-
OLYMPICS-EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-
BREMERTON AND VICINITY-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES-
CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES-
CASCADES OF PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-

...A PAIR OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT
WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
IN ADVANCE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
REGION. STEADY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO PERSIST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE COAST. BY
FRIDAY MORNING...HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH 1 TO
3 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS...2 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS...AND 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE SOUTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE RISES IN
ALL RIVER BASINS...WITH SOME RIVERS EXPECTED TO FLOOD. REFER TO
THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH AND BULLETINS FOR THE MOST UPDATED AND
DETAILED INFORMATION.

THE FIRST BIG SURGE IN SOUTHERLY WIND WILL HAPPEN ON THE COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW CENTER LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS NEAR THE COAST. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH WIND
WARNING STATEMENT FOR DETAILS ON TIMING AND WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED
FOR DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON.

FRIDAY WILL BE RAINY AND WINDY...BUT IT WILL SERVE AS A RELATIVE
LULL BEFORE A MORE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING STORM ON SATURDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING STORM TO AFFECT WESTERN
WASHINGTON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WITH ITS ORIGINS
TRACED BACK TO TYPHOON SONGDA IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC...WILL PEAK
IN STRENGTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE WASHINGTON COAST.
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE LOW MAKES
LANDFALL SOMEWHERE FROM THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST TO THE
CENTRAL COAST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WILL MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN HOW
BADLY THIS STORM IMPACTS WESTERN WASHINGTON. THERE IS A 1 IN 3
CHANCE OF THE LOW CENTER DIRECTLY CROSSING SOME PART OF THE
CENTRAL OR NORTH COAST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. THIS WOULD BE A
WORST CASE SCENARIO LEADING TO A HISTORICAL WINDSTORM FOR NEARLY
ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THAT WOULD BE LONG REMEMBERED.

THERE IS A 2 IN 3 CHANCE THAT THE LOW CENTER WILL PASS FURTHER
OFFSHORE...MAKING LANDFALL ON VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS OUTCOME
WOULD CONFINE THE MOST DAMAGING WINDS TO THE COAST AND TO THE
NORTH INTERIOR (AREAS NORTH OF EVERETT). INLAND LOCATIONS SUCH AS
THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON WOULD EXPERIENCE THE TYPE OF WINDSTORM THAT WOULD
NORMALLY BE EXPECTED A COUPLE TIMES EACH STORM SEASON. POWER
OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE OVER INLAND LOCATIONS WOULD BE LESS
WIDESPREAD IN THE SCENARIO.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT VERY LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY THE
SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE COAST WITH LARGE WAVES OVER
THE WEEKEND. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 30 TO 35 FEET OVER THE WASHINGTON
COASTAL WATERS...WITH LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES IMPACTING THE
COAST. BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AND WILL BE PARTICULARLY
THREATENING TO THE SUSCEPTIBLE OCEAN SHORES PENINSULA. PEOPLE
SHOULD AVOID THE BEACH AS LARGE DEBRIS WILL BE TOSSED ONTO THE
BEACH.

CHECK BACK REGULARLY FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS. MAKE PREPARATIONS NOW FOR POWER OUTAGES...TREE
DAMAGE...AND OTHER IMPACTS. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM HAS THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE...BUT IT ALSO HAS THE GREATEST RANGE OF
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.
image: noaa, today
image: noaa, today

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT for CALIFORNIA:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
132 PM PDT THU OCT 13 2016

SURPRISE VALLEY CALIFORNIA-LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-
EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES-GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-MONO COUNTY-
MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES-GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-
MINDEN AREA-WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE INCLUDING PYRAMID LAKE-
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDARVILLE...EAGLEVILLE...
FORT BIDWELL...PORTOLA...SUSANVILLE...WESTWOOD...SIERRAVILLE...
LOYALTON...SOUTH LAKE TAHOE...TAHOE CITY...TRUCKEE...
MARKLEEVILLE...BRIDGEPORT...COLEVILLE...LEE VINING...
MAMMOTH LAKES...HAWTHORNE...YERINGTON...SMITH VALLEY...MINA...
SCHURZ...STATELINE...GLENBROOK...INCLINE VILLAGE...SPARKS...
VERDI...GARDNERVILLE...VIRGINIA CITY...FERNLEY...FALLON...
LOVELOCK...SILVER SPRINGS...NIXON...IMLAY...EMPIRE...GERLACH

...STRONG EARLY SEASON STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

A TWO PART PACIFIC STORM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION
BEGINNING TODAY WITH PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SIERRA
RAINFALL PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE FIRST PART OF THE STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. FOR DETAILS ON THE STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY
STATEMENTS. HEAVY RAIN IN THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL
SLOW TRAVEL BY CREATING SLICK ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. MINOR
ROCK SLIDES AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS MAY ALSO OCCUR.

THE SECOND PART OF THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 8000
TO 9000 FEET. A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE SIERRA WHILE WESTERN NEVADA SEES A
BREAK SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN RESUMES SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SNOW LEVELS SLOWLY FALL TO NEAR 7000 FEET.

SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON A
POTENTIAL HIGH WIND EVENT SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER
LINES AND PROPERTY POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH ROCK SLIDES
AND MINOR MUD SLIDES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, NO MAINSTREAM RIVER
FLOODING IS EXPECTED. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY ACCUMULATE ON THE SIERRA
PASSES ABOVE 8500 FEET ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR TRAVEL DELAYS IN THE SIERRA DUE TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING ON INTERSTATE 80 AND HIGHWAY 50.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT for WYOMING:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1258 PM MDT THU OCT 13 2016

YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-
TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-JACKSON HOLE-
WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST-
UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN-STAR VALLEY-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-
SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE...MAMMOTH...OLD FAITHFUL...
JACKSON...DUBOIS...AFTON...ALPINE...STAR VALLEY RANCH...THAYNE...
PINEDALE...LA BARGE...BIG PINEY...FARSON...KEMMERER...COKEVILLE

...LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND VALLEY RAIN TO WESTERN
WYOMING FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS NOW ENTERING THE
FAR WEST. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH
SNOW LEVELS FROM 8000 TO 8500 FEET. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A BREAK
BETWEEN LOWS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY BUT SOME HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOW
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT BATCH OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE
ABOVE 8000 FEET IS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. THROUGH THE PERIOD SNOWFALL
ABOVE 8500 FEET MAY BE AROUND 12 TO 15 INCHES. STRONG WEST WINDS
IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE WESTERN VALLEYS
COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN BY LATE MONDAY.

WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY FOR GREATER DETAIL ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT...PEOPLE PLANNING TRAVEL OR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES INCLUDING HUNTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
ADVERSE WINTER WEATHER IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

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