The NOAA just released its outlook for the upcoming summer. Most of the US is facing above normal temperatures, especially Colorado and Utah, and the PNW and intermountain west can expect below-average precipitation. Buckle up, it’s going to be a long, hot, dry summer. The odds of a ‘triple dip’ La Niña winter are 61%.
The full discussion is below:
The June-July-August (JJA) 2022 temperature outlook depicts elevated odds of above normal seasonal mean temperatures for most of the U.S., including northern and western Alaska, with the highest probabilities over the western half of the nation. The greatest likelihood for above-normal temperatures is located in the Central Great Basin through the Central and Southern Rockies. Equal chances of above, near, or below-normal temperatures are forecast for the Pacific Northwest, parts of the Northern Plains, and the Upper Mississippi Valley, where probabilities for each category of seasonal mean temperatures are expected to be similar to climatological probabilities.
The JJA 2022 precipitation outlook favors below-normal precipitation stretching from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains and southward into the Southern Plains. Above normal precipitation is more likely for parts of Alaska, the Southwest, and the Eastern Seaboard. EC of above, near, or below-normal precipitation are forecast for areas where probabilities for each category of seasonal accumulated precipitation amounts are expected to be similar to climatological probabilities.
A La Niña advisory remains in effect, Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean, and the tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with a La Niña. La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (58% chance in August-October 2022), with slightly increased odds through Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (61% chance).
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