NOAA’s Official 2016/17 Winter Outlook for the USA:

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winter is coming...
winter is coming… but to whom?

NOAA released their official outlook for winter 2016/17 in the USA last month.

This updated forecast is for meteorological winter:  December, January, February.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK for DEC, JAN, FEB:

image: noaa, august 18th, 2016
image: noaa, august 18th, 2016
  • NOAA is calling for above average precipitation in Washington, northeast Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, western Alaska and the Great Lakes Region.  
  • NOAA is calling for below average precipitation in California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, southern Alaska and the lower half of the USA in general.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK for DEC, JAN, FEB:

image: noaa, august 18th, 2016
image: noaa, august 18th, 2016
  • NOAA is calling for below average temperatures in Montana, North & South Dakota, and Minnesota.
  • NOAA is calling for above average temperatures in California, Nevada, southern Idaho, Utah, New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, western and northern Alaska, and the lower half the the USA in general.

LA NINA’s IMPACT in USA:

La Nina effects on USA. image: noaa
La Nina effects on USA. image: noaa

The above map shows what La Nina generally does to North America:

  • Colder and wet in Oregon & Washington
  • Wetter in northern California
  • Colder in the northern Rockies (MT, WY, ID)

NOAA has issue a La Nina Watch and has called for a 50-60% chance of La Nina this winter.  Those aren’t great odds.  Very close to 50-50…

If La Nina does come, it’s likely to be weak or moderate.  The last time we had a moderate La Nina, we had record snowfall in the Western USA including 811″ at Squaw Valley, CA.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS AREN’T GREAT:

The reality is that long range winter outlooks aren’t great.  Let’s keep our fingers crossed and hope a huge snow year in North America.


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3 thoughts on “NOAA’s Official 2016/17 Winter Outlook for the USA:

  1. Is “The Blob” going to give us a more Neutral winter pattern? That’s still good, isn’t it? Doesn’t that mean more lowland snow? Am I grasping at straws? Debby Riehl, about to start my 46th year of ski patrolling.

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