NOAA just released their official outlook for Fall (October, November, December) 2016 today. Fall starts next week on Thursday, September 22nd.
NOAA is basically saying that only Montana is going to see above average precipitation this Fall. (Unless you live way out in the middle of nowhere deep in Alaska, which you don’t.)
Montana has already been getting it good this late summer with multiple snowfalls, multiple Winter Weather Advisories, and people even grass/powder skiing at Showdown Montana and full-on big mountain powder skiing in Glacier National Park. See photo & video tour below.
NOAA is also saying that the entire USA will see above average temperatures this Fall.
DETAILED NOAA OUTLOOK for USA:
PRECIPITATION: THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE PRIMARILY BASED ON CLIMATE MODEL GUIDANCE AND HISTORICAL PRECIPITATION TRENDS, WITH TRENDS BEING ESPECIALLY FAVORED DURING THE LATTER LEADS. IN OND, ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WHILE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST, BOTH AREAS CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS AND THE PROJECTED PATTERNS OF TROPICAL PACIFIC SST ANOMALIES. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ABOVE NORMAL SSTS FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA WITH AN ENHANCED MEAN STORM TRACK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE MOISTURE LADEN SYSTEMS OVER OPEN WATERS RATHER THAN SYSTEMS THAT MOVE OVER ICE COVERED OCEAN. THROUGH WINTER 2016-17, THE FORECAST PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER, WITH THE MOST CERTAINTY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MODELS AND TRENDS ALIGN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE FORECAST PATTERN IN TROPICAL PACIFIC SST ANOMALIES.
TEMPERATURE: THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR OND 2016 REFLECTS DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NMME SUITE AND STATISTICAL TOOLS SUCH AS SST CA AND REGRESSIONS USING THE SST CON. MODEL OUTPUT AND REGRESSION BASED TOOLS INDICATE MIXED SIGNALS OR NO SIGNAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST, SO EC IS INDICATED THERE. ACROSS ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED DUE TO TRENDS IN AIR TEMPERATURE, SSTS, AND ICE COVERAGE. GOING THROUGH WINTER 2016-17, THE OUTLOOKS REFLECT TREND, THE CPC CON, NMME MODEL OUTPUTS, AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THAN LAST MONTH, THE IMPACT OF TELECONNECTIONS IN TROPICAL SST ANOMALIES IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE OUTLOOKS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONTIGUOUS 48 STATES, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. THE OUTLOOKS REFLECT THE LOWERED PROBABILITIES OF LA NINA IN THAT SIGNALS TRADITIONALLY ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA WERE REDUCED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BY NEXT SPRING, ONLY A SMALL REFLECTION OF ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF TROPICAL PACIFIC VARIABILITY ARE INCLUDED IN THE OUTLOOKS.
PHOTO & VIDEO TOUR of MONTANA SNOW THIS WEEK:
video of a guy skiing in Glacier National Park, MT on September 9th, 2016
video of it snowing in Cooke City, MT on September 12th
video of snow falling at Red Mountain Lodge, MT on September 12th