NOAA’s Official Outlook for Fall 2016 in the USA:

WeatherBrains | | WeatherWeather
Stock image of beautiful autumn Rocky Mountain snow.
Stock image of beautiful autumn Rocky Mountain snow.

NOAA just released their official outlook for Fall (October, November, December) 2016 today.  Fall starts next week on Thursday, September 22nd.

NOAA is basically saying that only Montana is going to see above average precipitation this Fall.  (Unless you live way out in the middle of nowhere deep in Alaska, which you don’t.)

Above average precipitation forecast in Montana and northwest Alaska this Fall. image: noaa, today
Above average precipitation forecast in Montana and northwest Alaska this Fall. image: noaa, today

Montana has already been getting it good this late summer with multiple snowfalls, multiple Winter Weather Advisories, and people even grass/powder skiing at Showdown Montana and full-on big mountain powder skiing in Glacier National Park.  See photo & video tour below.

NOAA is also saying that the entire USA will see above average temperatures this Fall.

image: noaa, today
Above average temperatures forecast for nearly the entire USA this Fall.  image: noaa, today

DETAILED NOAA OUTLOOK for USA:

PRECIPITATION:
 
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE PRIMARILY BASED ON CLIMATE MODEL GUIDANCE AND 
HISTORICAL PRECIPITATION TRENDS, WITH TRENDS BEING ESPECIALLY FAVORED DURING 
THE LATTER LEADS. IN OND, ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE 
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WHILE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS 
FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST, BOTH AREAS CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS AND THE PROJECTED 
PATTERNS OF TROPICAL PACIFIC SST ANOMALIES. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ABOVE NORMAL 
SSTS FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA WITH AN 
ENHANCED MEAN STORM TRACK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE MOISTURE LADEN SYSTEMS 
OVER OPEN WATERS RATHER THAN SYSTEMS THAT MOVE OVER ICE COVERED OCEAN. THROUGH 
WINTER 2016-17, THE FORECAST PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR BELOW MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER, WITH THE MOST CERTAINTY OVER THE SOUTHEAST 
WHERE THE MODELS AND TRENDS ALIGN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN 
STREAM, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE FORECAST PATTERN IN 
TROPICAL PACIFIC SST ANOMALIES.

***

TEMPERATURE:
 
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR OND 2016 REFLECTS DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE 
NMME SUITE AND STATISTICAL TOOLS SUCH AS SST CA AND REGRESSIONS USING THE SST 
CON. MODEL OUTPUT AND REGRESSION BASED TOOLS INDICATE MIXED SIGNALS OR NO 
SIGNAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST, SO EC IS INDICATED THERE. ACROSS ALASKA, ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED DUE TO TRENDS IN AIR TEMPERATURE, SSTS, AND ICE 
COVERAGE. GOING THROUGH WINTER 2016-17, THE OUTLOOKS REFLECT TREND, THE CPC 
CON, NMME MODEL OUTPUTS, AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THAN LAST MONTH, THE IMPACT OF 
TELECONNECTIONS IN TROPICAL SST ANOMALIES IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE 
OUTLOOKS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE 
CONTIGUOUS 48 STATES, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED OVER PORTIONS OF 
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.  THE OUTLOOKS REFLECT THE LOWERED 
PROBABILITIES OF LA NINA IN THAT SIGNALS TRADITIONALLY ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA 
WERE REDUCED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BY NEXT SPRING, ONLY A SMALL REFLECTION 
OF ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF TROPICAL PACIFIC VARIABILITY ARE INCLUDED IN THE 
OUTLOOKS.

PHOTO & VIDEO TOUR of MONTANA SNOW THIS WEEK:

Red Mountain Lodge, MT yesterday. photo: red mountain lodge
Red Lodge Mountain, MT September 13th, 2016. photo: red lodge
Teton Pass Ski Resort, MT on September 12th! photo: teton pass ski resort
Teton Pass Ski Resort, MT on September 12th, 2016! photo: teton pass ski resort
Red Mountain Lodge, MT yesterday.
Red Lodge Mountain, MT on September 13th, 2016.
"Well, isn't that a view! New snowfall from yesterday can be seen on the Glacier National Park webcam today." - NOAA Missoula, MT on September 12th
“Well, isn’t that a view! New snowfall from yesterday can be seen on the Glacier National Park webcam on September 12th.” – NOAA Missoula, MT on September 12th
Showdown Montana on September 12th.
Showdown Montana on September 12th, 2016
Red Lodge, MT on September 12th.
Red Lodge, MT on September 12th, 2016.

video of a guy skiing in Glacier National Park, MT on September 9th, 2016

video of it snowing in Cooke City, MT on September 12th

video of snow falling at Red Mountain Lodge, MT on September 12th


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