Weather
NOAA just released their outlook for the month of June in North America.
The above graph is showing that NOAA is forecasting above average temperatures for the West Coast, the East Coast, and Alaska. Below average temperatures are forecast for the south central USA and into Colorado and Wyoming.
The below graph is showing that NOAA is forecasting above average precipitation for the Southeast and select states in the West including Idaho, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Montana.
If you live in ski country in the Rocky Mountain West, this June is looking like it could be a wet one for you.
This very well may add up to even more snow for Arapahoe Basin ski resort in Colorado. A-Basin open until June 14th this year.
NOAA Discussion for Monthly Outlook:
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EDT THURSDAY MAY 21 2015 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUNE 2015 EQUATORIAL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES REMAINED ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. COUPLING BETWEEN THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC REMAINS STRONG, WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION AND ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS NEAR THE DATE LINE. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR JUNE. A PLETHORA OF DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WAS CONSULTED, INCLUDING DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE WMO GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTERS, WHICH INCLUDES MODELS FROM THE ECMWF AND UKMET, AMONG OTHERS. GIVEN THE LATE TIME AT WHICH THIS FORECAST WAS ISSUED, THE MAPS WERE SLIGHTLY TWEAKED TO REFLECT THE LATEST GUIDANCE ON WEEKS 3 AND 4 FROM THE ECMWF AND CFS COUPLED SYSTEMS. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONSULTED INCLUDED THE FOLLOWING: CONSTRUCTED ANALOG BASED ON SOIL MOISTURE, COMPOSITE ANALOG BASED ON TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE SSTS NEAR NORTH AMERICA, AND SEASONAL CORRELATIONS BETWEEN ENSO AND SURFACE PARAMETERS FOR JJA. THESE TOOLS GENERALLY AGREED WITH THE LARGEST SIGNALS FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS, HOWEVER, THEY INTRODUCED UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NORTHEAST, WHERE THE NMME SUITE FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHWEST, WHERE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MAY HAVE BEEN A BIT WARM. IT MAY INTEREST THE USER THAT THE FORECAST IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH 2-MONTH LAGGED CORRELATIONS BETWEEN THE PDO AND AMO INDICES. THAT INFORMATION IS PARTLY CONTAINED WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPOSITE ANALOG BASED ON SST. THE LARGEST SIGNAL FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS/OKLAHOMA, WHERE SOIL MOISTURE CURRENTLY EXCEEDS THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND ALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT. LIKEWISE, THE TOOLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ALASKA, WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RESIDE. UNCERTAINTY IS LARGEST NEAR THE EAST COAST AND GREAT LAKES, WHERE EVERYTHING WAS SUBJECTIVELY COMBINED TO YIELD THE MAP AS IT STANDS. THE ONLY SUBSTANTIAL SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION COME FROM UNANIMOUS DYNAMICAL AGREEMENT FAVORING ABOVE-MEDIAN RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS, EXTENDING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS REASONABLY ON BOARD WITH THIS, THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY LOW TO REFLECT HISTORICALLY POOR FORECAST SKILL IN THE 0.5 MONTH LEAD PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK. IN AREAS WHERE THERE ARE NO STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT CLIMATE SIGNALS, SUCH THAT THE LIKELIHOODS OF MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES OR MONTHLY ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EQUAL TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) IS INDICATED.
