April 2020 El Niño Climate Update This month’s ENSO Climate Update is provided by Climate.gov and written by Michelle L’Heureux on April 9, 2020. It’s a new month, but it seems like an entirely different world as we peer at the tropical Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures remained warmer than average, but the tropical atmosphere shifted away from its El Niño-ish appearance during February. The lack of coupling between […] Weather WeatherBrains | April 9, 2020 0 Comments
NOAA March 2020 ENSO Update: Still in Neutral – Neither El Niño nor La Niña This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Emily Becker The ocean surface in the central tropical Pacific has been warmer than the long-term average for a few months now, but overall the ocean-atmosphere system is still in neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast team estimates about a 65% […] Weather WeatherBrains | March 13, 2020 0 Comments
NOAA February 2020 ENSO Update: 60% Chance Neutral El Niño/La Niña through Spring This post first appeared on the NOAA ENSO Blog and was written by Emily Becker The tropical Pacific is warmer than average, but it doesn’t meet El Niño criteria. Forecasters estimate about a 60% chance that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue through the spring, with a 50% chance of neutral through the summer. (ENSO = El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the whole ocean/atmosphere […] Weather WeatherBrains | February 15, 2020 0 Comments
Is Climate Change Increasing El Niño Patterns? All eyes have been on the dramatic El Niño patterns that have changed significantly over the past few years. With a severe and unpredictable nature, these natural weather events are trending towards even greater extremes. While there appears to be a connection between El Niño weather and global warming, limited history poses an issue for validation. El Niño means a short-term […] Weather Emily Crofton | December 3, 2019 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Update: Neutral El Niño Conditions Likely Through Spring This post was written by Emily Becker and first appeared on the NOAA ENSO blog ENSO is pretty quiet right now, with neutral conditions firmly in place. Forecasters estimate about a 70% chance that neutral conditions will continue through the winter and a 60-65% chance through spring. With ENSO snoozing in the back yard, we’ll take a tour of the tropical neighborhood […] WeatherBrains | November 14, 2019 0 Comments
NOAA: October 2019 ENSO Update: Scary Stuff as 85% Chance of Neutral El Niño/La Niña Winter This post first appeared on the Climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Emily Becker There’s about an 85% chance the tropical Pacific will remain ENSO-neutral through the fall, and a 55-60% chance of continued neutral through the spring. We’ll talk about the current conditions and check in on the Atlantic hurricane season. A Nightmare on ENSO Street But wait, you say—Niño3.4 […] SnowBrains | October 11, 2019 0 Comments
NOAA: September 2019 ENSO Update: 60% Chance of an El Niño/La Niña Neutral Winter Brought to you by the NOAA ENSO Blog / Written by Emily Becker El Niño 2019 is a thing of the past, and neutral conditions reign, as my brilliant blog brother Nat covered last month. Thanks, Nat! So where do we go from here? Forecasters estimate a 75% probability that we’ll hang out in neutral through the fall, with a […] Weather WeatherBrains | September 12, 2019 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO August 2019 Update: El Niño is Officially Done! What Does that Mean for Next Winter? This post was written by Nat Johnson and first appeared on the NOAA ENSO blog The El Niño of 2019 is officially done. Near-average conditions in the tropical Pacific indicate that we have returned to ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño or La Niña is present). Forecasters continue to favor ENSO-neutral (50-55% chance) through the Northern Hemisphere winter. Related: What Is […] Weather WeatherBrains | August 13, 2019 1 Comment
NOAA: July 2019 ENSO Update – El Niño is Still Present, But Just Barely This article was written by Emily Becker and first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog El Niño is hanging on by its fingernails, but forecasters predict this event will wind down within the next couple of months. It’s likely that the temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean surface will return to near-average soon, qualifying for “ENSO-neutral” conditions. Neutral conditions are […] Weather WeatherBrains | July 11, 2019 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO July Update: Combining Humans and Machines for More Accurate El Niño Forecasts This post was written by Tom Di Liberto and first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog. As meteorologists and climate scientists, we talk about, think about, and commiserate about forecasts a lot. One enhancement that NOAA’s ENSO forecasting team has been working toward is the prediction of the strength of El Niño or La Nina. And judging by the comments left […] Weather WeatherBrains | July 3, 2019 0 Comments
NOAA: June 2019 ENSO Update – 50% Chance of El Niño Continuing into Winter This article was written by Emily Becker and first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog Our El Niño is still hanging around, and forecasters think it’s likely to stay through the summer. What happens after that is less clear, though, with about a 50% chance of El Niño continuing through the fall and winter. You might also like: Better Snow […] Weather WeatherBrains | June 14, 2019 0 Comments
NOAA: May 2019 ENSO Update – 70% Chance El Niño Conditions Continue Through Summer and In To Fall This post was written by Emily Becker for the NOAA ENSO Blog Forecasters estimate a 70% chance that our current El Niño will continue through the summer and a 55-60% chance it will extend into the fall. Just a number El Niño conditions were still evident across the tropical Pacific Ocean during April, as the sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region […] Weather WeatherBrains | May 11, 2019 0 Comments
NOAA El Niño Update: El Niño is Likely to Continue Through the Summer and Fall El Niño is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (70% chance) and fall (55-60% chance) ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory An ENSO discussion taken from the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS During April, above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisted across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1), reflecting the ongoing El Niño. All of the latest […] Weather WeatherBrains | May 9, 2019 0 Comments
NOAA: April 2019 ENSO Update – El Niño Will Remain Through Summer and In To The Fall This post was written by Emily Becker for the NOAA ENSO Blog The Great Puny El Niño of 2018–19 continued through March, and forecasters predict it will likely remain through the summer and possibly continue into the fall. The tropical Pacific Ocean shows El Niño’s fingerprint clearly, with warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures stretching across the equator. Related: What Is El Nino? | What […] Weather WeatherBrains | April 12, 2019 0 Comments
Chances of El Niño for Upcoming Winter in Australia Are 70% | Triple Normal Likelihood The chance of El Niño developing in 2019 has increased to approximately 70%, around triple the normal likelihood, for the upcoming Australia winter season. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have touched on El Niño thresholds for the past three weeks, while waters below the surface are also slightly warmer than average, writes the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The Bureau’s ENSO Outlook has moved to […] Weather WeatherBrains | March 22, 2019 0 Comments
February 2019 ENSO Update: El Niño Conditions Are Here! Post from the climate.gov ENSO Blog – Author: Emily Becker After several months of flirting, the tropical Pacific ocean and atmosphere appear to have coupled just in time for Valentine’s Day and now meet the criteria for El Niño conditions. Is it true love? Time will tell, but forecasters expect weak El Niño conditions to persist through the spring. Say […] Weather WeatherBrains | February 14, 2019 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Blog: ‘90% Chance that El Niño Conditions Will Form Soon and Last Through the Winter’ This post was written by Emily Becker for the NOAA ENSO Blog The surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean is nice and warm, but the atmosphere just doesn’t seem interested. Will these two crazy kids get in sync and qualify as El Niño conditions? Forecasters think there’s a 90% chance that will happen soon and continue through the winter. Will-they-or-won’t-they Following our […] Weather WeatherBrains | December 14, 2018 0 Comments
NOAA: 90% Chance of El Nino This Winter | El Nino Watch Issued! NOAA Press Release: EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION Issued By: CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 13 December 2018 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch Synopsis: El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018- 19 (~90% chance) and through spring (~60% chance). ENSO-neutral continued during November, […] Weather WeatherBrains | December 13, 2018 0 Comments
NOAA Increases Chance of an El Niño Winter to Greater than 80% Chances of El Niño to form and continue through the northern hemisphere winter 2018/19 have increased from 70% to more than 80%, the NOAA announced today. El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~80% chance) and into spring (55-60% chance). ENSO-neutral continued during October, despite widespread above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the […] Weather WeatherBrains | November 8, 2018 0 Comments
NOAA: U.S. Winter Temperatures For Every El Niño Since 1950 NOAA: U.S. Winter Temperatures For Every El Niño Since 1950 By: Rebecca Lindsey The tropical Pacific climate pattern known as “ENSO,” which is short for El Niño-Southern Oscillation, has its strongest influence on the U.S. climate during winter (December-February). El Niño in general acts to tilt the odds toward wetter- and cooler-than-average conditions across much of the South, and toward drier and […] Weather Guest Author | October 24, 2018 0 Comments
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