July 2023 ENSO Update: 90% Chance El Niño Continues Through Winter This article originally appeared on climate.gov The chance that our young El Niño will continue through the winter is greater than 90%. Why are forecasters so confident? What are the chances of a strong El Niño? And what effect does El Niño have on global climate patterns? We have a lot to talk about today, so let’s get to it! […] Weather WeatherBrains | July 13, 2023 1 Comment
NASA: El Niño Returns After three consecutive years of La Niña, spring 2023 saw the return of El Niño—a natural climate phenomenon characterized by the presence of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (and higher sea levels) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño is associated with the weakening of easterly trade winds and the movement of warm water from the […] Weather WeatherBrains | June 21, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA: El Niño Has Arrived – Could Lead to New Temperature Records Expected to be moderate-to-strong by late fall/early winter The expected El Niño has emerged, according to scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. In the monthly outlook released today, forecasters issued an El Niño Advisory, noting that El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the winter. Related: Australian Bureau […] Weather SnowBrains | June 9, 2023 0 Comments
Australian Bureau of Meteorology Activates El Niño Alert The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (‘BOM’) has shifted its ENSO Outlook to El Niño alert, indicating a 70% chance of El Niño forming this year. This equates to roughly three times the normal chance of an El Niño forming. Central and Eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (‘SSTs’) have warmed to El Niño thresholds. All models surveyed by the Bureau forecast […] Industry News Oz Brains | June 6, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA May 2023 ENSO Update: El Niño Knocking on the Door The tropical Pacific sure knows how to get out of a rut! Just two months after declaring the demise of an almost interminable La Niña, above-average surface temperatures have reclaimed the tropical Pacific, and temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific are expected to continue to rise. Consequently, an El Niño Watch remains in place, with El Niño conditions likely to develop within the next […] Weather WeatherBrains | May 12, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Blog: Why Making El Niño Forecasts in the Spring Is Especially Anxiety-Inducing Given the relatively high probabilities for El Niño in our team’s April 2023 ENSO update, I decided to team up with some of my scientific colleagues, Antonietta Capotondi (NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory and University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) and Aaron Levine (@afzlevine, University of Washington, Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies), to explain why […] Weather WeatherBrains | May 8, 2023 0 Comments
Is a “Super El Niño” Event Coming? As most of you are probably aware, El Niño and La Niña are sea surface temperature oscillation events over the southern Pacific Ocean that can impact weather patterns worldwide. According to the National Ocean Service, during El Niño, trade winds from the Pacific weaken and warm water is pushed from the east to the west coast of the Americas. A shift […] Weather Zoe Loftin | April 14, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO April Update: 62% Chance of El Niño Conditions for May–July Well, that was quick! Just two months ago I was writing about La Niña for what seemed like the 97th month in a row, and then by March La Niña had departed. Today we’re hoisting an El Niño Watch, meaning that conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño conditions within the next 6 months. In fact, there’s a […] Weather SnowBrains | April 13, 2023 0 Comments
Atmospheric Rivers: How They Work, and How El Niño and La Niña Affect Them This article was originally published on climate.gov When rivers reach the sky Guest co-author Dr. Kai-Chih Tseng is a postdoctoral research scientist at Princeton University and the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory who is an expert on climate variability and prediction, including the study of atmospheric rivers. In the summer of 2022, Dr. Tseng will begin an assistant professor position in the Department of Atmospheric […] Weather WeatherBrains | January 5, 2023 0 Comments
How Does El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Affect Salmon? This article was originally published on climate.gov When we discuss the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (“ENSO” for short) at the blog, we often take a rather human or physics-y view of the climate phenomenon. We’ve published loads of articles discussing the mechanics for how ENSO works in the atmosphere and the ocean, and how ENSO impacts humans from droughts and wildfires […] Weather WeatherBrains | August 11, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA: July 2022 ENSO Update – 66% Chance of a La Niña Winter, ~5% Chance of El Niño Winter I’m in San Diego this week, gazing out across the Pacific toward La Niña’s cool tropical ocean surface. (I’m not here for Comic-Con, but there are a lot of posters around the city that keep that upcoming event in the forefront.) Just over my horizon, La Niña—the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (“ENSO” for short)—remains in force, despite […] Weather WeatherBrains | July 15, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA June 2021 ENSO Update: Too Early to Predict La Niña for 21/22, <10% Chance of El Niño This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Emily Becker ENSO-neutral conditions are present in the tropical Pacific, and NOAA forecasters think they’re likely to continue through the summer. Neutral is slightly favored through the fall, although it’s a close call between continued neutral and re-developing La Niña for the late fall and winter. Related: […] Weather WeatherBrains | June 10, 2021 2 Comments
NOAA: We Know All About El Niño and La Niña, But What About ‘Pacific Decadal Oscillation’? This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Tom Di Liberto We talk a lot about El Niño and La Niña at the ENSO blog, but there are other phenomena that garner interest among scientists, even if they do not have the same brand recognition as El Niño. So while we wait for a potential […] Weather WeatherBrains | June 3, 2021 0 Comments
NOAA March 2021 ENSO Update: Weakening La Niña Unlikely to Develop into El Niño in Fall This post first appeared on the ENSO Blog and was written by Emily Becker La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific, but it has weakened recently, and forecasters estimate about a 60% chance of a transition to neutral conditions in the late spring. Looking farther out into the fall of 2021, El Niño is unlikely to develop, and the chances […] Weather WeatherBrains | March 11, 2021 0 Comments
How Will Climate Change Affect El Niño and La Niña? This post first appeared on the NOAA Research News website As climate change disrupts weather patterns around the world, one overarching question is the subject of increased scientific focus: how it will affect one of the world’s dominant weather-makers? Related: NOAA October 2020 ENSO Update: Chance of La Niña Increased to 85% | Forecasters Expect Strong La Niña The future […] Weather SnowBrains | November 10, 2020 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Blog: The Rise of El Niño and La Niña This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Michelle L’Heureux We often get asked how El Niño or La Niña events form and increase in strength. The key is in the ocean-atmosphere coupling across the tropical Pacific Ocean. Without it, ENSO would not exist, and it would be considerably more difficult to predict climate impacts seasons in advance. […] Weather WeatherBrains | October 30, 2020 1 Comment
NOAA: Do You Know That El Niño Has a Little Brother? This post first appeared on the climate.gov website and was written by Sang-Ki Lee This is a guest post by Dr. Sang-Ki Lee, a physical oceanographer at the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, Florida. His research focuses on the interactions between the atmosphere and ocean, and how these interactions impact extreme weather and global climate. Do you […] Weather WeatherBrains | September 1, 2020 0 Comments
NOAA Enso Blog: Can Volcanic Eruptions Cause El Niño? This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Tom Di Liberto It may seem like I randomly spun a Climate/Earth Phenomena wheel, landed on volcanoes, landed on ENSO, and then decided to do a piece connecting the two. But it makes more sense than it may seem. Volcanic eruptions have had HUGE impacts on the […] Weather WeatherBrains | June 26, 2020 0 Comments
NOAA June ENSO Update: Winter El Niño Unlikely, But Not Ruled Out This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Emily Becker After several months of hovering above average, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have dropped rapidly in recent weeks. The current CPC/IRI ENSO forecast estimates about a 60% chance that ENSO-neutral conditions will remain through the summer. Chances for the fall and winter are […] Weather WeatherBrains | June 12, 2020 0 Comments
NOAA May ENSO Update: Increasing Odds of La Niña Next Winter With Low Chances for El Niño This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Emily Becker ENSO-neutral conditions continue and are expected to remain through the fall. Let’s hit the road (virtually) and take a trip around El Niño/Southern Oscillation land! Who needs Carhenge when you have the Walker circulation? Related: THIS Is What El Nino Does To The USA: Buckle […] Weather WeatherBrains | May 16, 2020 0 Comments
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