NOAA Predicts “Weak” El Niño Event There is an approximately 50-60% chance of El Niño conditions during the next two months, according to a report released by the Climate Prediction Center at the NOAA. NOAA states that ENSO(El Niño/Southern Oscillation)-neutral conditions continue, with positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. During December 2014, positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Weather ameliatraynor | January 20, 2015 0 Comments
NOAA El Nino Update from Today: 67% Chance of El Nino This Fall Today, NOAA released their latest El Nino update. Here is the summary of this latest report: Most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). The consensus of forecasters indicates a 2-in-3 chance of El Niño during the November 2014 – January 2015 season. This El Niño will likely remain weak (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 0.9°C) throughout its duration. In summary, El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome). – NOAA […] Weather SnowBrains | October 9, 2014 1 Comment
NOAA 2014/15 El Nino Winter Outlook for the USA: NOAA just released their latest El Nino update on September 4th. They are now saying there is a 60-65% chance of El Nino during the Northern Hemisphere’s Fall & Winter. These are the same numbers we saw in their El Nino update a month ago. If we do have El Nino this winter it will be a weak El Nino. What does a weak El Nino mean for precipitation in North America? “Approximately one-third of the (weak) events featuring above-average precipitation, one-third near-average precipitation, and one-third below-average precipitation” – NOAA NOAA’s latest El Nino update is below: […] Weather SnowBrains | September 7, 2014 1 Comment
NOAA VIDEO: “What Does a Weak El Nino Mean for Northern California?” Winter 2014/15 will mostly likely be a weak El Nino winter. NOAA has finally answered the question we’ve all be wondering in Northern California: “What does a weak El Nino mean for Northern California?” This video answers that question basically by saying that they have no idea what is going to happen. Great. The real take away is that El Nino doesn’t mean above average precipitation. Not what we skiers and riders wanna hear. That said, some weak El Nino years are damn good in California. Just look at 1978 in the graph above. […] Weather SnowBrains | September 4, 2014 0 Comments
Weak El Nino History in California: The Past 7 Weak El Nino’s by the Numbers El Nino might make California a ski haven this winter. It also might not change anything. It also might make things worse than they already are (which is scary to imagine…). The reality is that the past 8 Strong, Moderate, and Weak El Ninos show that it’s El Nino in California, as far as precipitation goes, it essentially a 50/50 coin toss. According to NOAA, this year, it’s looking like we’ll most […] Weather SnowBrains | August 15, 2014 4 Comments
NOAA Report: Chance of El Nino DECREASED to 65% This Winter Synopsis:The chance of El Niño has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter.During July 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, but near average SSTs prevailed in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). Most of the Niño indices decreased toward the end of the month with values of +0.3°C in Niño-4, -0.1°C in Niño-3.4, +0.2°C in Niño-3, and +0.6°C in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2). Subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180º-100ºW) continued to decrease and are slightly below average (Fig. 3). […] Weather SnowBrains | August 8, 2014 4 Comments
El Nino 2014 Update for North America from NOAA: El Nino is most likely still on its way to North America in 2014/15 but it may not be as strong as once predicted. NOAA is now favoring this El Nino to be weak-to-moderate. We are currently in an El Nino Watch, which means that “conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño or La Niña conditions within the next six months.” Right now, NOAA is giving El Nino an 80% chance of happening this winter in North America. Below is some very technical speak about where El Nino is right now and what the chances are it will happen in North America this winter. This quote sums up all you really need to know:[…] Weather SnowBrains | July 23, 2014 0 Comments
NOAA: What Does El Nino Mean for Hurricane Season in the USA? With the approach of the 2014 hurricane season and the strong potential for El Niño to develop during the next few months, the effect that El Niño has on both the Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes seasons is worth exploring. The hurricane impacts of El Niño and its counterpart La Niña are like a see-saw between the Pacific and Atlantic […] Weather SnowBrains | June 3, 2014 0 Comments
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