ENSO

NOAA June 2025 ENSO Update: Neutral Conditions—Neither El Niño nor La Niña—Most Likely for Winter 2025-26

This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Emily Becker. The Pacific Ocean has hit pause and settled into ENSO-neutral conditions, which are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer. This makes seasonal forecasting for upcoming global rain, temperature, and other patterns a bit trickier. Related: These Are the 6 Ski Areas Open in […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments

Is Early Season Snow a Harbinger of Good or Bad News—A Statistical Analysis for Australia

With the first snow of the season hitting Australian resorts such as Perisher and Thredbo, excitement for the 2025 season is starting to build. The idea that an early dusting portends a stellar winter has deep roots in ski lore, bolstered by the thrill of advanced openings and first turns on untouched snow. While early-season snowfall certainly generates enthusiasm, some […]
Post Tag for BrainsBrains
Julia Schneemann |
0 Comments

NOAA May 2025 ENSO Update: Next Winter Likely ENSO-Neutral, Although La Niña a Possibility

This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog.​ The tropical Pacific is in ENSO-neutral conditions, and neutral is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer. Neutral is also the most likely outcome for the fall and winter, although chances of La Niña are a close second. Today, as your trusty representative of the ENSO forecast team, I’ll cover […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments

NOAA ENSO Update January 2025: 59% Chance La Niña February–April and 60% Chance of Neutral Conditions in March–May

This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO Blog and was written by Emily Becker La Niña conditions emerged in the tropical Pacific in December. There’s a 59% chance La Niña will persist through February–April, followed by a 60% chance of neutral conditions in March–May. Read on for the recent observations that led us to declare the (long-awaited) onset of […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments

NOAA ENSO December 2024 Update: Weak La Niña Forecast Packs Surprising Punch

This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Nat Johnson Although it’s taking its sweet old time to get going, a weak La Niña, the cool phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is expected to develop this winter. Much like I did last November, I thought it would be a good time to delve into how these expected tropical […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments

Weak La Niña Poised to Influence U.S. Winter Precipitation Patterns

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) has shared on its ENSO blog that a weak La Niña, the cooler phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is expected to develop this winter, shifting North America’s precipitation patterns. Contributors he ENSO blog are, amongst others, Michelle L’Heureux (NOAA Climate Prediction Center), Emily Becker (University of Miami/CIMAS), Nat Johnson (NOAA Geophysical […]
Post Tag for Industry NewsIndustry News
Avatar photo SnowBrains |
0 Comments

NOAA ENSO October 2024 Update: Confidence of La Niña Emerging This Winter Decreased to 60% Chance

This ENSO update first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO Blog and was written by Emily Becker. The tropical Pacific Ocean reflected neutral conditions—neither El Niño nor La Niña—in September. Forecasters continue to favor La Niña later this year, with an approximately 60% chance it will develop in September–November. The probability of La Niña is a bit lower than last month, […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments

NOAA ENSO May 2024 Update: 69% Chance Weakening El Niño Will Transition to La Niña by Fall

El Niño weakened substantially over the past month, and we think a transition to neutral conditions is imminent. There’s a 69% chance that La Niña will develop by July–September (and nearly 50-50 odds by June-August). Let’s kick off the ENSO Blog’s tin anniversary with our 121st ENSO outlook update! Attention! First things first: our beloved editor, Rebecca Lindsey, has trained […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments

NOAA ENSO January 2024 Update: El Niño Reaching Peak Strength | 60% Chance of La Niña in Late-Summer/Fall

El Niño is very likely close to peak strength and is likely to continue for the next few months while gradually weakening. Despite the expected weakening of El Niño’s tropical Pacific sea surface signature, impacts to global climate will continue for the next few months. Forecasters currently expect ENSO-neutral conditions (ENSO = El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the whole El Niño & […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments

NOAA ENSO Update December 2023: 54% Chance El Niño Will be “Historically Strong” in Top 5 on Record

El Niño is zipping along in the tropical Pacific. There’s a 54% chance that this El Niño event will end up “historically strong” (more details below), potentially ranking in the top 5 on record. Looking ahead, it’s likely that El Niño will end and neutral conditions return by April­–June. Sail across the Pacific El Niño is associated with specific changes […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments

NOAA ENSO Blog: How Does El Niño Influence Snowfall Over the United States?

After the last three winters of La Niña conditions (weren’t we all ready for a change!), the tropical Pacific is looking much different this year, with a strong El Niño likely this winter (1). Historically, how has El Niño shaped precipitation (rainfall + snowfall) over the U.S.? Let’s dig in and find out! Related: SnowBrains Forecast: Colorado to Get Hammered This Weekend – 2+ FEET […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments

NOAA ENSO November 2023 Update: This Winter’s El Niño is Officially a Strong Event

El Niño is currently chugging along, and forecasters expect it to continue for the next several months, with a 62% chance of lasting through April­–June 2024. Since we’re heading into the winter, when El Niño’s effect on Northern Hemisphere temperature and rain/snow is most distinct, today we’ll drive by some of El Niño’s wide-ranging impacts. On rails First stop—this El […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments

NOAA ENSO Update October 2023: El Niño is Certain, But How Strong Will it Get?

El Niño is currently purring along in the tropical Pacific. Forecasters expect El Niño will continue through the spring, with a 75-85% chance it will become a strong event. A stronger El Niño—definition to follow shortly—means it is more likely that we will see El Niño’s expected thumbprint on winter temperature and rain/snow patterns around the world. Related: 2023-24 El […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments

NOAA September ENSO Update: Greater Than 95% Chance El Niño Sticks Around Through March

Let’s cut right to the chase. According to the September El Niño-Southern Oscillation (aka ”ENSO”) Outlook, El Niño is expected to stick around (with greater than a 95% chance) at least through January-March 2024. There is now around a 71% chance that this event peaks as a strong El Niño this winter (Oceanic Niño Index ≥ 1.5 ˚Celsius). Remember, though, […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments

NOAA ENSO August 2023 Update: Greater Than 95% Chance of El Niño This Winter – But What Does That Mean?

It’s that time again! And by “that time,” I mean the El Niño forecast update, of course. The chance that El Niño—the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (aka “ENSO”) climate pattern—will continue through the winter is greater than 95%, so let’s sharpen our pencils and get into the details of what that means for upcoming seasons. Related: […]
Post Tag for WeatherWeather
WeatherBrains |
0 Comments