NOAA ENSO September 2022 Update: 91% Chance of Fall La Niña, 80% Chance Winter La Niña Ocean and atmospheric conditions tell us that La Niña—the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern—currently reigns in the tropical Pacific. It’s looking very likely that the long-predicted third consecutive La Niña winter will happen, with a 91% chance of La Niña through September–November and an 80% chance through the early winter (November–January). 91%! That’s very high. […] Weather WeatherBrains | September 12, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Blog: La Niña’s Delayed Effect on Sizzling Texas Summers It’s been a scorching summer in much of the US, but no state has sizzled more than Texas. Does this summer’s unusually persistent La Niña bear some of the responsibility for the extreme heat? In this blog post, we’ll try to figure that out! Related: August 2022 ENSO Update: La Niña Continues ENSO impacts on summer US climate: concurrent versus […] Weather WeatherBrains | August 29, 2022 0 Comments
How Does El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Affect Salmon? This article was originally published on climate.gov When we discuss the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (“ENSO” for short) at the blog, we often take a rather human or physics-y view of the climate phenomenon. We’ve published loads of articles discussing the mechanics for how ENSO works in the atmosphere and the ocean, and how ENSO impacts humans from droughts and wildfires […] Weather WeatherBrains | August 11, 2022 0 Comments
August 2022 ENSO Update: La Niña Continues View this post on Instagram A post shared by NOAA Climate.gov (@noaaclimate) This article was originally published on climate.gov La Niña continues! It’s likely that the La Niña three-peat will happen: the chance that the current La Niña will last through early winter is over 70%. If it happens, this will be only the third time with three La Niña winters in a row […] Weather WeatherBrains | August 11, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA: July 2022 ENSO Update – 66% Chance of a La Niña Winter, ~5% Chance of El Niño Winter I’m in San Diego this week, gazing out across the Pacific toward La Niña’s cool tropical ocean surface. (I’m not here for Comic-Con, but there are a lot of posters around the city that keep that upcoming event in the forefront.) Just over my horizon, La Niña—the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (“ENSO” for short)—remains in force, despite […] Weather WeatherBrains | July 15, 2022 0 Comments
June 2022 ENSO Update: Triple Dip? 59% Chance of La Niña by Early Next Winter I’m definitely starting to sound like a broken record here! La Niña is favored to continue through the summer and into the winter. That said, chances of La Niña through summer have a fairly small edge over chances of a transition to neutral—52% for La Niña vs. 46% for neutral in July–September. There’s about a 59% chance of La Niña […] Weather WeatherBrains | June 10, 2022 0 Comments
May 2022 ENSO Update: 61% Chance of Another La Niña Next Fall and Early Winter Written by Emily Becker and published on climate.gov on May 12, 2022 May 2022 ENSO update: piece of cake La Niña continued through April, and forecasters estimate a 61% chance of a La Niña three-peat for next fall and early winter. Current El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO, the entire El Niño and La Niña system) conditions, the forecast for the rest […] Weather WeatherBrains | May 12, 2022 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO April 2022 Update: 50-55% Chance of La Niña Continuing In To Fall La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific, with both the ocean and atmosphere clearly reflecting La Niña conditions. The current forecast favors the continuation of La Niña through the summer (59% chance), with a slightly lower chance into the fall (50-55% chance). A third-year La Niña would be pretty unusual—we’ve only seen two others since 1950. I’ll run the numbers […] Weather WeatherBrains | April 14, 2022 0 Comments
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