NOAA ENSO May 2024 Update: 69% Chance Weakening El Niรฑo Will Transition to La Niรฑa by Fall El Niรฑo weakened substantially over the past month, and we think a transition to neutral conditions is imminent. Thereโs a 69% chance that La Niรฑa will develop by JulyโSeptember (and nearly 50-50 odds by June-August). Letโs kick off the ENSO Blogโs tin anniversary with our 121st ENSO outlook update! Attention! First things first: our beloved editor, Rebecca Lindsey, has trained […] Weather WeatherBrains | May 9, 2024 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Update April 2024: 85% Chance La Niรฑa Develops Next Winter The El Niรฑo of 2023โ24 is weakening. Forecasters estimate an 85% chance that El Niรฑo will end and the tropical Pacific will transition to neutral conditions by the AprilโJune period. Thereโs a 60% chance that La Niรฑa will develop by JuneโAugust. Overall, the forecast this month is very similar to last month, and we continue to expect La Niรฑa for […] Weather WeatherBrains | April 12, 2024 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO January 2024 Update: El Niรฑo Reaching Peak Strength | 60% Chance of La Niรฑa in Late-Summer/Fall El Niรฑo is very likely close to peak strength and is likely to continue for the next few months while gradually weakening. Despite the expected weakening of El Niรฑoโs tropical Pacific sea surface signature, impacts to global climate will continue for the next few months. Forecasters currently expect ENSO-neutral conditions (ENSO = El Niรฑo/Southern Oscillation, the whole El Niรฑo & […] Weather WeatherBrains | January 12, 2024 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Update December 2023: 54% Chance El Niรฑo Will be โHistorically Strongโ in Top 5 on Record El Niรฑo is zipping along in the tropical Pacific. Thereโs a 54% chance that this El Niรฑo event will end up โhistorically strongโ (more details below), potentially ranking in the top 5 on record. Looking ahead, itโs likely that El Niรฑo will end and neutral conditions return by AprilยญโJune. Sail across the Pacific El Niรฑo is associated with specific changes […] Weather WeatherBrains | December 14, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Blog: How Does El Niรฑo Influence Snowfall Over the United States? After the lastย threeย wintersย of La Niรฑa conditions (werenโt we all ready for a change!), the tropical Pacific is looking much different this year, with a strong El Niรฑoย likely this winterย (1). Historically, how has El Niรฑo shaped precipitation (rainfall + snowfall) over the U.S.? Letโs dig in and find out! Related: SnowBrains Forecast: Colorado to Get Hammered This Weekend โ 2+ FEET […] Weather WeatherBrains | December 1, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO November 2023 Update: This Winter’s El Niรฑo is Officially a Strong Event El Niรฑo is currently chugging along, and forecasters expect it to continue for the next several months, with a 62% chance of lasting through AprilยญโJune 2024. Since weโre heading into the winter, when El Niรฑoโs effect on Northern Hemisphere temperature and rain/snow is most distinct, today weโll drive by some of El Niรฑoโs wide-ranging impacts. On rails First stopโthis El […] Weather WeatherBrains | November 10, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Update October 2023: El Niรฑo is Certain, But How Strong Will it Get? El Niรฑo is currently purring along in the tropical Pacific. Forecasters expect El Niรฑo will continue through the spring, with a 75-85% chance it will become a strong event. A stronger El Niรฑoโdefinition to follow shortlyโmeans it is more likely that we will see El Niรฑoโs expected thumbprint on winter temperature and rain/snow patterns around the world. Related: 2023-24 El […] Weather WeatherBrains | October 12, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA September ENSO Update: Greater Than 95% Chance El Niรฑo Sticks Around Through March Letโs cut right to the chase. According to the September El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation (aka โENSOโ) Outlook, El Niรฑo is expected to stick around (with greater than a 95% chance) at least through January-March 2024. There is now around a 71% chance that this event peaks as a strong El Niรฑo this winter (Oceanic Niรฑo Index โฅ 1.5 หCelsius). Remember, though, […] Weather WeatherBrains | September 14, 2023 0 Comments
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