NOAA ENSO May 2024 Update: 69% Chance Weakening El Niño Will Transition to La Niña by Fall El Niño weakened substantially over the past month, and we think a transition to neutral conditions is imminent. There’s a 69% chance that La Niña will develop by July–September (and nearly 50-50 odds by June-August). Let’s kick off the ENSO Blog’s tin anniversary with our 121st ENSO outlook update! Attention! First things first: our beloved editor, Rebecca Lindsey, has trained […] Weather WeatherBrains | May 9, 2024 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Update April 2024: 85% Chance La Niña Develops Next Winter The El Niño of 2023–24 is weakening. Forecasters estimate an 85% chance that El Niño will end and the tropical Pacific will transition to neutral conditions by the April–June period. There’s a 60% chance that La Niña will develop by June–August. Overall, the forecast this month is very similar to last month, and we continue to expect La Niña for […] Weather WeatherBrains | April 12, 2024 0 Comments
March 2024 ENSO Update: 62% Chance of La Niña by June–August This article originally appeared on climate.gov El Niño—the warm phase of ENSO, which is short for El Niño-Southern Oscillation—is still hanging on in the tropical Pacific, but signs are pointing to a quick transition to neutral conditions by the April–June period. There’s a 62% chance of La Niña getting the golden ticket by June–August. Stay tuned, because La Niña affects […] Weather WeatherBrains | March 15, 2024 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO January 2024 Update: El Niño Reaching Peak Strength | 60% Chance of La Niña in Late-Summer/Fall El Niño is very likely close to peak strength and is likely to continue for the next few months while gradually weakening. Despite the expected weakening of El Niño’s tropical Pacific sea surface signature, impacts to global climate will continue for the next few months. Forecasters currently expect ENSO-neutral conditions (ENSO = El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the whole El Niño & […] Weather WeatherBrains | January 12, 2024 0 Comments
NOAA May Outlook: “Wetter Than Average for West Coast” What does the May outlook from NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center look like? According to NOAA, May will be: Wetter than average for the Gulf Coast/West Coast. Drier-than-average for the Great Lakes/Midwest Warmer than average for the Pacific NW, Florida and New England Cooler than average for the SW and Tennessee Valley. NOAA reports that drought in May is expected […] Weather WeatherBrains | May 2, 2023 0 Comments
Why Did California Break So Many Records This Winter Even Though It Was La Niña? I am sure by now you are well aware of the record-breaking winter that California just experienced! To put this into perspective, the high terrain of California’s current snowpack is in the range of 195% to 300% of the normal average for this time of the season. Even more interesting is the snow water equivalent (amount of water locked up […] Weather Matthew Oliphant | April 25, 2023 0 Comments
March 2023 ENSO Update: No More La Niña! This article originally appeared on climate.gov La Niña—the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern—has left the building! After a year and half of non-stop La Niña, the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system has transitioned to neutral, allowing NOAA to issue its “Final La Niña Advisory”. What can we expect for ENSO through the summer and into next […] Weather WeatherBrains | March 9, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Update February 2023: La Niña is Weakening – 85% Chance of Neutral Conditions Feb – Apr La Niña—the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern—weakened over the past month, and forecasters expect a transition to neutral conditions in the next couple of months. We’ll check in with the tropical Pacific to see how things are going before continuing the journey into understanding winter daily temperature variability that I started in December’s post. Current events […] Weather WeatherBrains | February 9, 2023 0 Comments
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