NOAA’s latest forecast for May is showing above average temperatures for every single square inch of the USA.

NOAA is showing above average precipitation in May for Alaska, the Northern Rockies, and the entire central swath of the country including the Great Lakes.

NOAA is forecasting below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Southeast.

NOAA’s Forecast Discussion for May 2018:

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAY 2018 
 
THE MAY 2018 FORECAST IS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND 
SHORT TERM WEATHER PHENOMENA THAT ARE LIKELY TO EXERT A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE 
MONTHLY-AVERAGED CLIMATE. OUR MID-MONTH ASSESSMENT OF LOW-FREQUENCY CLIMATE 
VARIABILITY IS LARGELY UNCHANGED. THE MJO IS CURRENTLY WEAK, BUT COULD 
REORGANIZE OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE DURING WEEK-2. WHILE THIS IS NOT 
EXPECTED TO YIELD A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL RESPONSE, THERE IS VERY MODEST 
EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE THAT THIS EVOLUTION COULD FAVOR A COOLING TREND, RELATIVE TO 
NORMAL, OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS DURING THE MONTH. 
 
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS UPDATED TO REFLECT MAJOR WARMING TRENDS FORECAST 
OVER BOTH THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CONUS: THE FORMER DURING THE 
FIRST FIVE DAYS OF THE MONTH, THE LATTER DURING THE DAY 6-14 PERIOD. THE LATEST 
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE CFS AND OUR OFFICIAL WEEK-2 AND WEEK 3-4 FORECAST 
PRODUCTS ALL SUPPORT A GENERAL TILT TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE 
ENTIRE CONUS. THE ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THE GREATEST OVER PARTS 
OF THE INTERIOR WEST, WHERE A MAJOR, PROLONGED WARMUP IS FORECAST FROM ABOUT 
MAY 6 ONWARD. A WEAKNESS IN PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS 
EVIDENT OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST. PERIODIC 
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IS INDICATED FOR THESE REGIONS, LIMITING FORECAST 
CONFIDENCE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR ALASKA, WITH THE 
BEST ODDS ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE, WHERE LONG-TERM WARMING TRENDS ARE DOMINANT. 
 
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FIRST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL 
FORECAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH. THE HEAVIEST RAIN RELATIVE TO NORMAL IS 
FORECAST OVER TEXAS, WITH A SECONDARY REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER 
MIDWEST. THE MONTHLY-AVERAGED CIRCULATION OVER NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO 
FAVOR ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, SO 
PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH THE MONTH. THE FIRST WEEK OF 
MAY IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE DRY OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOUTHERN 
APPALACHIANS, AND THE SOUTHEAST. BEYOND WEEK-1, PRECIPITATION SIGNALS ARE WEAK 
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, LEADING TO EXPANDED COVERAGE OF AN EQUAL 
CHANCES FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS 
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST, LEADING TO A FORECAST FAVORING BELOW-AVERAGE 
PRECIPITATION. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST OVER ALASKA, ESPECIALLY 
EARLY IN THE MONTH; THIS FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AT REASONABLY HIGH 
PROBABILITIES FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.