The famous Farmers’ Almanac just released their 2015 Winter Weather Forecast for 2015 today.
The Farmers’ Almanac has been in continuous publication since 1818. Today, it’s circulation is still around 4 million copies per year. It’s produced by the Almanac Publishing Company in Lewiston, Maine and was originally founded in Morristown, New Jersey. The Almanac is most famous for it’s long range weather predictions.
How accurate is the Farmers’ Almanac? They claim it’s 80-85% accurate. Reality may be a touch different. They just released their latest winter outlook on August 25th, 2013.
“The Almanac Publishing Company claims readers of theFarmers’ Almanac have attributed an 80 to 85 percent accuracy rate to the publication’s annual forecasts. However independent studies that retrospectively compare the weather with the predictions have not shown them more accurate than chance.” – wikipedia
Farmers’ Almanac 2015 Winter Weather Forecast:
After the frigid, bitterly cold, and snow-filled winter last year, many of you are wondering just what this winter might bring. Could it possibly be as bad as last?
According to the 2015 edition of the Farmers’ Almanac, the winter of 2014–15 will see below-normal temperatures for about three-quarters of the nation. A large zone of very cold temperatures will be found from east of the Continental Divide east to the Appalachians. The most frigid temperatures will be found from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. The coldest outbreak of the season will come during the final week of January into the beginning of February, when frigid arctic air drops temperatures across the Northern Plains to perhaps 40 below zero. As the frigid air blows across the Great Lakes, snow showers and squalls will drop heavy amounts of snow to the lee of the Lakes.
No region will see prolonged spells of above-normal temperatures; only near the West and East Coasts will temperatures average close to normal.
Over the eastern third of the country, we are expecting an active storm track with a number of storms delivering copious amounts of snow and rain. Near-normal precipitation is expected for the Pacific Northwest, the Southwest States, and Northern Plains, while below-normal precipitation values are forecast for the Southwest States as well as the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. The Central and Southern Plains are expected to receive above-average precipitation.
We are “red flagging” the first 10 days of January and the first week of February along the Atlantic Seaboard for active wintry weather featuring bouts of heavy precipitation and strong winds. Another red flag timeframe for widespread wintry conditions is the middle part of March from the nation’s midsection to the East Coast.
Potential El Niño is an Uncertain Element
As we were putting the finishing touches on this year’s long-range projections, the National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration issued an official El Niño watch. An El Niño is a warming of the central Pacific once every few years, from a combination of wind and waves in the tropics. It shakes up climate around the world, changing rain and temperature patterns. An El Niño could result in more rain this winter for drought-stricken California and Southern States, and a milder winter for the nation’s frigid northern tier. El Niños are usually strongest from December to April, but there’s no guarantee that we will see one this winter. We’ll just have to wait and see, but in the mean time, all of us at the Farmers’ Almanac suggest you stock up on firewood, sweaters, and hot cocoa. It certainly looks like another long winter of shivery and shovelry is on tap.