NOAA June 2025 ENSO Update: Neutral Conditions—Neither El Niño nor La Niña—Most Likely for Winter 2025-26 This post first appeared on the climate.gov ENSO blog and was written by Emily Becker. The Pacific Ocean has hit pause and settled into ENSO-neutral conditions, which are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer. This makes seasonal forecasting for upcoming global rain, temperature, and other patterns a bit trickier. Related: These Are the 6 Ski Areas Open in […] Weather WeatherBrains | June 13, 2025 0 Comments
NASA: El Niño Exits After heating up the eastern Pacific Ocean for about a year, El Niño finally died out in May 2024. The natural climate phenomenon contributed to many months of record-high ocean temperatures, precipitation extremes in Africa, low ice cover on the Great Lakes, and severe drought in the Amazon and Central America. As of July 2024, the eastern Pacific was in […] SnowBrains | July 15, 2024 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO July 2024 Update: El Niño is Over With 79% Chance of La Niña Winter El Niño’s term is over, and La Niña is favored for the school year (79% chance for November–January). Our neutral summer break is underway, so let’s pack our bags and hit the road. Summer school A quick primer for our newer visitors: El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate pattern that […] Weather WeatherBrains | July 12, 2024 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO May 2024 Update: 69% Chance Weakening El Niño Will Transition to La Niña by Fall El Niño weakened substantially over the past month, and we think a transition to neutral conditions is imminent. There’s a 69% chance that La Niña will develop by July–September (and nearly 50-50 odds by June-August). Let’s kick off the ENSO Blog’s tin anniversary with our 121st ENSO outlook update! Attention! First things first: our beloved editor, Rebecca Lindsey, has trained […] Weather WeatherBrains | May 9, 2024 0 Comments
As Australia’s El Niño Period Ends, Australian Snow Fields are Potentially Facing Rare La Niña & Positive IOD Winter The Australian Bureau of Meteorology announced on April 16 that the El Niño period has officially come to an end and the country is back in neutral ENSO territory. Climate models indicate that ENSO — the El Niño–Southern Oscillation — will stay neutral until approximately July 2024 with a possibility of moving into La Niña territory during the Southern Hemisphere […] Industry News Julia Schneemann | April 18, 2024 0 Comments
February 2024 ENSO Outlook: 55% Chance El Niño Transitions to La Niña in Summer On a brisk early February morning, all of us El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasters emerged from our burrows and saw our shadows. That can mean only one thing: conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña within the next six months. Yes, the February ENSO Outlook officially announces that we are in a La Niña Watch, even while, at […] Weather WeatherBrains | February 8, 2024 0 Comments
Mt. Baker, WA, Cancels Legendary Banked Slalom Event Due to El Niño The 36th annual Mt. Baker Legendary Banked Slalom snowboarding competition, set to take place this coming weekend, has been canceled. This is truly a shame as Mt. Baker, Washington, was one of the first ski areas to embrace snowboarders, and this event is paramount to the resort’s admired place in snowboarding culture. The event consists of a timed run through […] Industry News Brent Glogau | February 5, 2024 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO January 2024 Update: El Niño Reaching Peak Strength | 60% Chance of La Niña in Late-Summer/Fall El Niño is very likely close to peak strength and is likely to continue for the next few months while gradually weakening. Despite the expected weakening of El Niño’s tropical Pacific sea surface signature, impacts to global climate will continue for the next few months. Forecasters currently expect ENSO-neutral conditions (ENSO = El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the whole El Niño & […] Weather WeatherBrains | January 12, 2024 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Update December 2023: 54% Chance El Niño Will be “Historically Strong” in Top 5 on Record El Niño is zipping along in the tropical Pacific. There’s a 54% chance that this El Niño event will end up “historically strong” (more details below), potentially ranking in the top 5 on record. Looking ahead, it’s likely that El Niño will end and neutral conditions return by April–June. Sail across the Pacific El Niño is associated with specific changes […] Weather WeatherBrains | December 14, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Blog: How Does El Niño Influence Snowfall Over the United States? After the last three winters of La Niña conditions (weren’t we all ready for a change!), the tropical Pacific is looking much different this year, with a strong El Niño likely this winter (1). Historically, how has El Niño shaped precipitation (rainfall + snowfall) over the U.S.? Let’s dig in and find out! Related: SnowBrains Forecast: Colorado to Get Hammered This Weekend – 2+ FEET […] Weather WeatherBrains | December 1, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO November 2023 Update: This Winter’s El Niño is Officially a Strong Event El Niño is currently chugging along, and forecasters expect it to continue for the next several months, with a 62% chance of lasting through April–June 2024. Since we’re heading into the winter, when El Niño’s effect on Northern Hemisphere temperature and rain/snow is most distinct, today we’ll drive by some of El Niño’s wide-ranging impacts. On rails First stop—this El […] Weather WeatherBrains | November 10, 2023 0 Comments
S(no)w Pain, S(no)w Gain: How Does El Niño Affect Snowfall Over North America? This article originally appeared on climate.gov Note: The primary writer of this post is Michelle L’Heureux, but it is inspired by and reviewed by Brian Brettschneider, who is the NWS Climate Service Program manager for the Alaska region. The last several winters have been depressingly bleak for snow lovers in the Washington, D.C. area, where we at the Climate Prediction […] Weather WeatherBrains | October 27, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA ENSO Update October 2023: El Niño is Certain, But How Strong Will it Get? El Niño is currently purring along in the tropical Pacific. Forecasters expect El Niño will continue through the spring, with a 75-85% chance it will become a strong event. A stronger El Niño—definition to follow shortly—means it is more likely that we will see El Niño’s expected thumbprint on winter temperature and rain/snow patterns around the world. Related: 2023-24 El […] Weather WeatherBrains | October 12, 2023 0 Comments
AccuWeather Releases 23/24 Winter Forecast: El Niño Could Bring a Repeat of Last Winter to the West This forecast first appeared on AccuWeather A strengthening El Niño will make this winter different than last year in part of the United States. It will be colder with plenty more snow for millions of people who live in major cities, but that won’t be the case everywhere. The cold season is upon us, and AccuWeather’s long-range forecasters say El […] Weather WeatherBrains | October 4, 2023 0 Comments
[UPDATED] NOAA Winter 23/24 Outlook: This is How El Niño Will Impact Temperature and Snowfall This Winter… As we’re well into fall now, the NOAA is starting to nail down its forecast for the upcoming winter. These outlooks have been consistently updated every month since last year, but with winter fast approaching, forecasters can start being more specific and accurate. They were updated last week on September 21st, 2023. Related: Farmers’ Almanac 2023/24 Winter Forecast: A Return […] Weather WeatherBrains | September 24, 2023 11 Comments
Australian Bureau of Meteorology Finally Declares El Niño and Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (‘BOM’) has officially declared an El Niño, after Oceanic indicators continuously exhibited an El Niño state. Central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures continue to exceed El Niño thresholds. The call had been anticipated for months after the country experienced the second hottest August on record. This is the first El Niño pattern across Australia […] Weather Julia Schneemann | September 19, 2023 0 Comments
NOAA September ENSO Update: Greater Than 95% Chance El Niño Sticks Around Through March Let’s cut right to the chase. According to the September El Niño-Southern Oscillation (aka ”ENSO”) Outlook, El Niño is expected to stick around (with greater than a 95% chance) at least through January-March 2024. There is now around a 71% chance that this event peaks as a strong El Niño this winter (Oceanic Niño Index ≥ 1.5 ˚Celsius). Remember, though, […] Weather WeatherBrains | September 14, 2023 0 Comments
2023-24 El Niño Outlook: What Are the Implications for North American Ski Season? After three years of moderate La Niña winters, El Niño is poised to return in full force, having major implications for the North American ski season. Let’s look at what El Niño is, how it works, and the impact it will have on snowfall this season. Related: Farmers’ Almanac 2023/24 Winter Forecast: A Return Of Traditional Winter Weather: The Brrr […] Weather WeatherBrains | September 4, 2023 0 Comments
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NOAA ENSO August 2023 Update: Greater Than 95% Chance of El Niño This Winter – But What Does That Mean? It’s that time again! And by “that time,” I mean the El Niño forecast update, of course. The chance that El Niño—the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (aka “ENSO”) climate pattern—will continue through the winter is greater than 95%, so let’s sharpen our pencils and get into the details of what that means for upcoming seasons. Related: […] Weather WeatherBrains | August 10, 2023 0 Comments
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