October is not far away. Many snowmaking operations begin in October and last year a number of ski resorts opened in October, including Mammoth Mountain and Palisades Tahoe in California. Will the weather co-operate again this year? My sources say no…
The discussion from the NOAA is below:
The October 2022 temperature outlook depicts favored above-normal monthly mean temperatures for the majority of the CONUS with the only exception being the far Pacific Northwest. The greatest odds are forecast for an area from the central Rockies to the central Plains where the anomalously warm signal was most consistent amongst all the forecast tools and potential La Nina influence. For Alaska, the signals overall were quite weak and conflicting. Slight tilts toward above-normal (below-normal) temperatures are depicted for coastal northwest Alaska (south-central Alaska) driven primarily by long-term trends (model guidance).
For the October 2022 precipitation outlook, elevated odds for below-normal monthly total precipitation amounts are depicted from north-central California eastward across the central Rockies to the central and southern Plains and parts of the central Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The La Nina base state, dynamic model guidance, and long-term trends contributed to this outlook. A slight tilt toward above-normal precipitation is shown for parts of Washington and the Alaska panhandle associated with model guidance and potential La Nina impacts. Probabilities in all locations are modest due to the low predictability common during this time of the year.
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